“Experience is something you don't get until just after you need it.”
-- Steven Wright
Foodies will probably recognize the term “amuse-bouche.” A French term that can be translated, “to entertain the mouth,” they are generally bite-sized representations of the chef’s craft and skill, an indicator of what is to come in your meal. We have no idea what how the term translates into Russian, but late last season Evgeny Kuznetsov provided a bite-sized version of what might be in store for 2014-2015.
In 17 games Kuznetsov went 3-6-9 (a 43 point pace, albeit in
a small population of games) and had a couple of highlight reel moments. Like his first NHL goal…
Or his first turn in the Gimmick…
Or his fake slap shot/pass to Tom Wilson…
But before we help young Mr. Kuznetsov clear some space on the
mantel for a Calder Trophy as 2014-2015 rookie of the year, let’s all take a
step back, take a deep breath, and remember that while he was 2-5-7 in his
first nine games, he had only two points in his last eight games.
Then there is the matter of where he will play. Kuznetsov spent those 17 games at the end of
last season at left wing. He is likely
to start training camp auditioning for a new role: second line center, the
persistent hole in the Capitals’ lineup.
If he takes to the position, he could be the answer for the next
decade. However, if he does not, it
could mean a revolving door at that position once more.
Fearless’ Take…
In the 39-season history of the Washington Capitals, only 17
first year players playing in at least 15 games had more points-per-game than
Evgeny Kuznetsov had last season (0.53).
Last year’s 43-point pace, even if it was in a small population of
games, was one that would have had him fourth overall in rookie scoring over a
full season. Kuznetsov, who is still a
rookie for purposes of the upcoming season, has some built in advantages in
terms of hitting the ground running in October.
He spent four seasons with Traktor Chelyabinsk in the KHL, honing his
game against professionals in preparation for his move to the NHL. He also has significant international
tournament experience – two world under-18 tournaments, three world junior
tournaments, and three world championship tournaments. He is a rookie for NHL purposes, but perhaps not a "rookie" in terms of his experience, even if he is only 22 years old.
Cheerless’ Take…
Yeah, about that whole second line center thing. It’s one thing to be a center moving to the
wing, even it is a temporary thing – Nicklas Backstrom started his career with
the Caps on the wing, Nathan MacKinnon spent a lot of time at right wing last
season in Colorado. Both are natural
centers (yeah, and both were younger than Kuznetsov, too). It is another thing for a player who has not
played the position on a scoring line in the NHL to be put into that position
as a rookie, even one with his international experience at the position. It might be that the best to be said here is
that the team was patient enough with him in the position to allow him to grow
into it and be a lot better at it in March than he might be in October.
The Big Question… What would a reasonable rookie season look
like for Kuznetsov?
Those nine points in 17 games and the occasional highlight
reel play might have some Caps fans entertaining thought of a big rookie season for
Kuznetsov. Maybe 60 points, maybe even
70. OK, let’s take a minute here. Alex Ovechkin recorded 106 points as a
rookie. That’s the franchise record, and
the sun will go dark before it’s broken.
Next on the list is Nicklas Backstrom, who had 69 points in
2007-2008. Chris Valentine in 1981-1982 and
Bengt Gustaffson in 1979-1980 are the next centers on the list with 67 and 60
points, respectively, in their rookie seasons, but that was a different era.
Even if one looks at centers since the 2005-2006 lockout
overall, there is Sidney Crosby at 102 points in 2005-2006 and then a long way
to Paul Stastny in Colorado in 2006-2007 (78 points). Only five rookie centers since the 2004-2005 lockout have had 60 points, only 10 with more than 50, and some of those
players were not full time centers in their rookie season.
Given who his linemates might be, Troy Brouwer on the right
side and any of Marcus Johansson, Brooks Laich, or possibly even Eric Fehr or
Jason Chimera on the other side, anything north of, say, 55 points would look
like a pipe dream. But he has the skill
and the experience (more so than most “rookies”) to perhaps challenge that
55-point level.
In the end…
We have seen Evgeny Kuznetsov entertain with a fair number
of highlight plays in his young career to date.
Over an 82-game season the object, given his role as a scoring line
center, is going to be one of providing consistent production more than bursts
of flair and helping make those around him better. Then there is the matter of his defensive
responsibilities. He will not have the
same lock-down role that a checking line center might have, but he can’t be
caught cheating so much into the offensive end that his line becomes a defensive
liability, either.
It is going to be a lot for Kuznetsov to assimilate in this
role, even if he does have more than 200 regular season and playoff games of
KHL experience and 37 games of world championship and world junior championship
tournament experience. Now he gets to
add to his NHL experience, and just in time, because how quickly he fills
his new role will be one of the plot twists to pay attention to as the Caps
look to return to the post-season.
Projection: 75 games, 18-32-50, even
Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America
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