tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14971098.post6081643714206752206..comments2024-03-17T21:09:46.268-04:00Comments on The Peerless Prognosticator: 50 goalsThe Peerlesshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10293195514553989436noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14971098.post-23111388509421548802011-08-29T20:00:51.089-04:002011-08-29T20:00:51.089-04:00Never bet against the outlier.Never bet against the outlier.exwhalernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14971098.post-73067227278945006062011-08-28T22:50:55.985-04:002011-08-28T22:50:55.985-04:00I think what to look for from Ovechkin is not whet...I think what to look for from Ovechkin is not whether he hits numerical targets but how he compares to his cohorts. He's not likely to get 50 goals, but you could argue persuasively that the likelihood of anyone else doing it is even slimmer.<br /><br />But if Ovechkin gets, say, 45, and there are only a couple of players in that class, then he is as dominating a scorer, relative to his cohort, as he was when he was scoring 50-plus. Frankly, I'm not seeing ANY player getting 50 this season. Perry did it last season only because he closed with a rush. It might take something like that to have a player top 50. We're getting right back to where we were -- goal-scoring wise -- where we were before the lockout. Systems and goalies are once more dominant.The Peerlesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10293195514553989436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14971098.post-83130482273804695562011-08-28T22:46:24.872-04:002011-08-28T22:46:24.872-04:00Let's hope Neil's analysis is off a bit. ...Let's hope Neil's analysis is off a bit. His analysis leads one to believe Backstrom will score ~ 80 points, Semin won't get 40 goals, and now we show Ovechkin's chances of a 50-goal season are not in the cards. Maybe.....but maybe not.<br /><br />I like statistical analysis for business forecasting models; not so sure it applies to all things sports-related.<br /><br />At the end of the day, stats are just that: stats. <br /><br />Makes for interesting reading, at the very least.Dougebnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14971098.post-32642226533912924552011-08-28T13:22:42.188-04:002011-08-28T13:22:42.188-04:00I know I'm nitpicking, but if 7 of the 11 grea...I know I'm nitpicking, but if 7 of the 11 great scorers and 17 of the 32 50 goal scorers did get at least one more half century season, then wouldn't the smart bet be on at least one more?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com