Alex Ovechkin
Theme: "Life is all memory, except for the one present moment that
goes by you so quickly you hardly catch it going."
-- Tennessee Williams
Alex Ovechkin has three 50-goal seasons and another season in which he topped 60 goals. He has a Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie. He has three Ted Lindsay Awards as the league’s outstanding player. He has two Hart Memorial Trophies as the league’s most valuable player and two Maurice Richard Trophies as the league’s top goal-scorer. He has an Art Ross Trophy as the league’s top point producer. He has a gold medal as a champion in the IIHF World Championship. He has been awarded a key to the city by the Mayor of Washington, D.C., and he has been named an ambassador for the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia. He is a five-time winner of the Kharlamov Trophy sponsored by Sovietsky Sport and awarded to the most valuable Russian NHL player. He is a five-time first team NHL All-Star Team selection.
He also has accomplished none of that since 2010.
In 2010-2011 Ovechkin totaled 32 goals, behind the likes of
Brenden Morrow, Michael Grabner, and Patrick Sharp. In 2011-2012 he was 38-27-65, a line that
looked a lot like Max Pacioretty (33-32-65) or Radim Vrbata (35-27-62).
Alex Ovechkin had become an “also-ran.”
That might be a bit unfair, considering that only four
players have scored more goals combined over the past two seasons than Ovechkin
(Steven Stamkos, Corey Perry, Jarome Iginla, and Daniel Sedin). But then again, this is a player who lapped
the field over his first five seasons, scoring 269 total goals to 230 for his
closest competitor, Ilya Kovalchuk.
His performance over the last two seasons is an indicator of
how high Ovechkin once soared, though.
Any conversation in his first five years in the league about the best
players in the game included his name.
In fact, it was largely a conversation limited to his name and that of
Sidney Crosby. He averaged 53.8 goals
per season. Only two players had single
seasons of at least that many (Jonathan Cheechoo, with 56 in 2005-2006; and
Jaromir Jagr, with 54 in the same year).
There were 14 instances of 50 goal scorers in that five year span;
Ovechkin did it four times. Dany Heatley
and Ilya Kovalchuk were the only ones who managed to do it twice. There were 355 hat tricks over that period of
time. Ovechkin had nine of them; only Carolina’s Eric Staal had more (10). There were 16 instances of players scoring
four or more goals in a game; Ovechkin was the only player to do it twice.
However, over the past two seasons covering 157 games,
Ovechkin has but 12 multi-goal games and one hat trick (no hat tricks in
2011-2012). He is not included in any
conversation about the game’s top player, and Steven Stamkos has passed him by
as the game’s dominant goal scorer.
Even in the playoffs, where he lifted his game, time has
taken a toll on Ovechkin. In his first
three playoff appearances through the 2010 post season, Ovechkin was 20-20-40,
plus-14 in 28 games (an eye-popping 59-59-118, plus-41 line per 82 games). In his last two post seasons he is 10-9-19,
minus-3 in 23 games, a respectable 36-32-68, minus-11 over an 82-game pace, but
not close to his performance level in his first three post seasons. His five goals last spring in 14 games looked
a lot like Antoine Vermette’s five goals in 16 games.
From being a category of player unto himself, Ovechkin was
now one of many players you could call “good,” even “very good.” Just not among the best in the game.
Fearless’ Take…
Scoring goals at a 41-goal pace in the 60 games he played
under Dale Hunter last season qualifies as no mean accomplishment. Only Evgeni Malkin and Steven Stamkos scored
goals at a faster pace. And if he
maintained his 12.0 shooting percentage for the year while taking his career
season average in shots (421) instead of the 303 he took, he would have
finished with 50 goals. He did all this
while playing the fewest average minutes per game in his seven-year career
(19:48).
Cheerless’ Take…
Home cookin’ ain’t what it used to be, cuz. Ove his first five years, Ovechkin was really
somethin’ at Verizon Center. He averaged
28-30-58, plus-11 per 41 games of a home season. Year before last he was 18-25-43 in 41 games
at home, and last year he was 16-16-32, plus-3 in 40 games. Last season he had more multi-goal games on
the road (five) than he had at home (three), and only one of the three
multi-goal games he had at home came against a team that made the playoffs
(Florida).
The Big Question… What does Alex Ovechkin have left?
That goal scorers enjoy their best years before the age of
27 is not exactly news. But the difference between Alex Ovechkin of
his first five seasons and the player he has been these last two seasons is
considerable. Ovechkin has never been an
especially efficient shooter. Even in
the year in which he scored 65 goals he finished only in a tie for 46th in
shooting percentage. He did, as they
say, a volume business in shots. While
he finished sixth among forwards in shots on goal last season, his total of 303
was 30 percent fewer than what he averaged over his first five years
(432). The matter of whether Ovechkin
has more 40- or even 50-goal seasons left in him might come down to whether
his drop in production is due to his being used differently by coaches,
depressing his shot opportunities and shot totals, or to the fact that he can
no longer get shots off from his preferred shooting areas.
In the end…
As Ovechkin goes, so go the Caps. Last season he had 27 goals in the Caps’ 41
wins, only 11 in 37 losses. He had power
play goals in 13 games last season; the Caps had ten wins in those 13
games. He might be at a point in his
career where winning will mean more than sheer numbers, and if the Caps are
going to be a reliably sound contender, one would think that the goals he loses
from those early career years would be picked up, and then some, by
teammates. But Ovechkin remains “the
straw that stirs the drink.”
He does not have to be a 50-goal scorer at this point in his
career, but he does have to be productive.
As much as that production is important on the scoreboard, it is
important for its less tangible effects.
An unhappy Ovie scoring three goals in 12 games (not to mention going
minus-7) after being benched by Bruce Boudreau at the end of a one-goal game
against Anaheim last November 1st is what leads to a 4-7-1 record and the coach
getting fired. The happier version seems
to rub off more positively with his teammates, and goal-scoring still seems to
make him happiest of all.
The fear here, especially with this season in jeopardy of
being lost in its entirety, is that the “moment” for Ovechkin is passing, if it
has not already passed. Cal Ripken
played in a World Series at age 22 and never made it back. Dan Marino made it to a Super Bowl as a 23
year old and never returned. Being among the greats is no guarantee of a
championship, and if you don’t realize that dream early, it does not mean your
odds improve with age.
Projection: 80 games, 39-47-86, plus-18
Photo: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images North America