The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
It is one down and three to go on this last pre-Olympic
break home stand for the Washington Capitals.
Having defeated the Detroit Red Wings in the first of the four games, it
is the New York Islanders next on tap for the Caps.
The Islanders arrive in Washington a team in a nosedive,
losers of five straight games. It has
not mattered where or in what elements they came up short. The first three of those losses came at home
in Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, then they took it outside at Yankee
Stadium where they lost to the New York Rangers. The fifth straight loss came last Friday
against those same Rangers at Madison Square Garden, leaving the Islanders
cemented in eighth place in the Metropolitan Division, nine points behind the
three teams immediately ahead of them, including the Caps.
Over the five-game losing streak, Kyle Okposo has done more
than his share trying to keep the Islanders competitive. Four goals in five games brings Okposo into a
tie with his career high in goals, 24 in 79 games in 2011-2012. He comes into this game with on quite a run,
having gone 25 games having avoided consecutive games without a point. He is 16-16-32 over those 25 games with
points in 20 of them. In 17 career games
against Washington, Okposo is 7-6-13.
Michael Grabner is next in line in scoring during the
Islanders’ five-game losing streak (2-2-4), but like much of his season it has
come in fits and starts. He has a pair
of two-point games during he streak, two of five multi-point games he has this
season. On the other side, he has had a
24-game streak this season without a point.
Grabner is 2-2-4 in 13 career games against the Caps.
The Islanders have split their goaltending responsibilities
roughly evenly between Evgeni Nabokov and Kevin Poulin, neither of them putting
up particularly good numbers. Poulin is
11-16-1, 3.29, .891 in his 28 appearances, while Nabokov is 9-10-5, 2.83, .907
in his 27 appearances. It would seem
likely that Nabokov get this start. Despite
missing 10 games to a lower body injury in January and losing his last two
decisions, he has a fine career record against the Caps – 12-2-3, 2.32, .919,
with two shutouts.
1. The Islanders have
drawn a blank on the power play in their five-game losing streak. No goals in 20 opportunities. Their penalty killing has fared better,
although it benefits from few opportunities.
The Isles are 9-for-10 on the PK during the losing streak.
2. Only four teams
have scored fewer first period goals than the Islanders (36), and they have
scored first only 23 times in 57 games.
It is not a team that usually gets off to fast starts.
3. Only two teams
have worse records in one-goal games this season than the 11-11-8 mark posted
by the Islanders. Couple that with the
fact that only four teams have more losses by three or more goals, and you have
a recipe for being a team sitting in 26th place in standings points.
4. If the Caps are going to get well at 5-on-5, this might
be a good team against which to do it. Only
Edmonton (131) has allowed more goals at 5-on-5 than the Islanders (128).
5. After a short
string of games in which the Islanders were evincing better possession numbers
(50-plus percent in Crosri-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations),
they have sunk to their previous season-long level. They have been at or below 50 percent in both
Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentage in each of their last four games, all
losses.
1. Washington has not
won consecutive games on a home stand since winning three straight back on
November 2-7 against Florida, the Islanders, and Minnesota. They have an opportunity to break that string
tonight.
2. The Caps have
scored 21 goals in their last five games.
It is their most prolific five-game stretch of goal-scoring this season
(not including trick shots). It is their
best such streak since they scored 22 goals over a five-game stretch in Games
42-46 last season.
3. The Caps still
have not won a game this season when scoring fewer than three goals. They are 0-18-5 in such games. Fittingly, since this indicates that the Caps
are not stealing games with superior goaltending on nights their offense is
off, all five extra time losses have come in the freestyle competition.
4. Is it
improvement? Or, have other teams become
leakier? The Caps spent a long time
challenging the Toronto Maple Leafs to see which team could allow more shots on
goal this season. The Caps have risen,
if that is the right word, to 27th in shots allowed per game
(33.5). Ottawa and Buffalo have sunk
beneath the Caps.
5. The Caps are now
in the middle third of the league in close-score possession statistics. Don’t let out a roar just yet. They stand 20th in both Corsi-for
and Fenwick-for percentages. But,
progress is progress. However, they have
been below 50 percent in both measures in each of their last three games.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New York: John Tavares
He is the straw that stirs the drink on Long Island,
although it might be chocolate syrup in a glass of milk. Tavares is not the flashiest player around,
but there he is, 14th in goals scored, fifth in assists, tied for
second in points behind Sidney Crosby (oh, and he’s a minus-4 for you hockey
media who put stock in such numbers).
When he is on, the Islanders do well.
Tavares averages 1.7 points in Islander wins this season. However, he hardly slacks off much when other
things are not going well for the Isles; he still averages 0.83 points per game
in losses. He has been a remarkably
consistent scorer this season. Only
twice over his first 53 games did he have consecutive games without a
point. However, he comes into this game
without a point in his last three contests, all New York losses.
Washington: Martin Erat
Here are some numbers for you… 53, 64, 85. Martin Erat has gone without a goal in 53
consecutive regular season games, has one in his last 64 games, and has two in
his last 85 regular season games. That’s not a drought, that’s the Sahara
Desert. It is nice that Erat, given his
playing time and linemates this season, has 21 assists (tied for fourth on the
team), but at some point he is going to have to display some offense of his
own, especially with Mikhail Grabovski, Mike Green, and Brooks Laich all
injured to varying degrees.
Keys:
1. Pressure. Caps fans saw up close what a hard forecheck
could do when the Caps applied it to a decent skating and possession team like
Detroit on Sunday. The Islanders are not
at that level in either attribute. Keep
them below their own faceoff dots and let the turnovers happen.
2. 120 seconds. Uh, guys?
It really is something to address, this whole allowing goals within two
minutes of scoring one. 24 times, and
counting. Stop it.
3. PK, OK! The Islanders’ power play has short circuited
over their five-game losing streak. The
Caps’ penalty killing stumbled against Detroit (1-for-3) after going 16-for-17
over their previous four games. Allowing
the Isles to get up off the canvas on their power play is a recipe for despair
in this game.
In the end…
The Caps looked good for stretches, particularly early, in
their overtime win over Detroit on Sunday.
They also looked like crap over stretches. That kind of uneven 60 minutes has been a
consistent feature of the Caps this season.
Part of it is due to lack of depth on defense. Part of it is inconsistent or unfocused
goaltending at the wrong time. Part of
it is bad shooting luck (or bad shooting skill, depending on your tolerance for
luck). Part of it (recently) is
injuries. Whatever. If the Caps are going to make a go of this
post-Olympic playoff sprint, they had better bank points against teams like the
one they face tonight. There really is
no excuse for losing.
Capitals 4 – Islanders 2