The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals embark on a treacherous two-game
road trip this week that will provide a stiff test after a very successful December and start to the new year (10-2-3). First up, it is the
Toronto Maple Leafs, who relieved head coach Randy Carlyle of his duties on
Tuesday. The Leafs, following in the footsteps of the New Jersey Devils, have named Peter Horacheck and Steve Spott
as interim coaches.
The firing of Carlyle comes as the Leafs are stuck in
neutral. When play started in December,
Toronto was 12-8-3. Their 27 standings
points were good for fifth in the Atlantic Division and seventh in the Eastern
Conference. On the day Carlyle was
fired, they found themselves with a record of 21-16-3 (9-8-0 since December 1st),
sitting fourth in the Atlantic Division but eighth in the conference.
What is worse, and what is the proximate cause of Carlyle’s
firing, is that Toronto is 2-7-0 in their last nine games and have scored only
20 goals while giving up 35. This is a
team that simply cannot win if it cannot score.
In 22 games this season in which the Maple Leafs have scored fewer than
four goals in regulation and/or regulation and overtime, they are 5-14-3. Couple that with the fact that the Maple
Leafs are 1-12-1 in 12 games when allowing four or more goals in regulation
and/or regulation and overtime, and this is a team that simply has to score –
and often – to win.
Toronto has allowed 40 or more shots on goal 11 times in 40
games this season, tops in the league by a comfortable margin (Colorado:
8). While they have a respectable 6-5-0
record in such games, it is a symptom of a larger problem. They are entirely too loose in the defensive
side of the game and put entirely too much pressure on their goaltenders to
make too many saves on a night-to-night basis.
In their latest 2-7-0 skid, the Leafs are led in goals and
overall points by James van Riemsdyk (4-5-9) who has painstakingly put together
a season that builds off of last year’s career year (30-31-61 in 80
games). In 40 games this season he is
17-20-37, second on the team in goals and points. Like the rest of the team, however, he either
struggles with defense or is a victim of a team-wide problem. He is third among forwards in even-strength
goals against/on-ice and one of five forwards on the club who has been on ice
for more than 30 goals against (only 59 forwards league-wide have been on ice
for more than 30 goals). As if things
weren’t bad enough, he suffered a broken nose in a 3-1 loss to Minnesota last
Friday when he was struck by a shot from the stick of teammate Tyler Bozak. In 16 career games against Washington, he is
5-7-12, minus-1.
Phil Kessel is thought of primarily as a goal scorer. In the 2-7-0 stretch, however, he has but a
single goal while recording six assists.
His lone goal, part of a 4-3 Gimmick win over Boston on New Year’s Eve,
is his only goal over his last nine contests. He has had a goal scorer’s streakiness this
season, enduring streaks of five and six games without a goal, while scoring
goals in consecutive games five times.
In 28 career games against the Caps, Kessel is 6-14-20, even.
Playing in goal has been no picnic for either Jonathan
Bernier or James Reimer. The pair have
combined to face 34.1 shots per 60 minutes (compare that to the Washington pair
of Braden Holtby and Justin Peters, who have combined to face 28.2 shots per 60
minutes). Of the two, Bernier has held
up better. While his goals against
average is middle of the road (2.67, 26th of 42 qualifying goalies), a product
of the shot volumes he faces, his .920 save percentage is quite respectable
(11th overall). His .929 save percentage
at even strength is tenth among 39 goalies appearing in at least 15 games. In four career appearances against
Washington, Bernier is 3-1-0, 2.01, .932.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. It might surprise
you to know that Toronto has allowed fewer first period goals (35) than the Los
Angeles Kings (37). That is where the
comparison ends. The Maple Leafs have
allowed 41 second period goals to the Kings’ 32, and they have allowed 43 third
period goals to the Kings’ 25.
2. Slugfests are the
Maple Leafs’ stock and trade. No, not
the sort born of fisticuffs, but rather blowout games. Of the Maple Leafs’ 40 games to date, 22 have
been decided by three or more goals, by far most in the league (Buffalo: 18 in
40 games). Toronto is 13-9 in such
contests.
3. As for the
fisticuffs, a team once known for its “truculence,” the Maple Leafs are
comparatively meek these days. Having
led the league in fighting majors last season (48), Toronto has just seven
fighting majors this season. Dion
Phaneuf leads in that category with three.
4. It probably
surprises no one that Toronto has been outshot 29 times in 40 games (record:
15-13-1). What might surprise you is
that they do not lead the league in games out-shot by opponents. New Jersey has been out-shot 31 times in 41
games (13-12-6), and Buffalo has been out-shot (33 times (10-21-2). It probably has not escaped your attention
that those two teams rank 14th and 15th, respectively, in the Eastern
Conference.
5. The Caps would do
well not to let the Maple Leafs take a lead into the second intermission. When doing so, only three teams in the
Eastern Conference have a better winning percentage than Toronto (.933/14-1-0).
1. Only Montreal (13) and the New York Islanders (12) have more
road wins than the Capitals (11) so far this season in the Eastern Conference.
2. Washington reached
the 10-win mark in one-goal games with their 4-3 win over Florida on
Sunday. Given that 23 of the Caps’ 38
games have ended in one-goal decisions (10-6-7), improvement in this area might
be key to a successful finish to the season.
3. Washington’s
recent tendency to giving up large numbers of power plays to opponents (29 in
their last five games) is reflected in the fact that the Caps now have the
tenth highest average penalty minutes per game (10.6) in the league.
4. Toronto might not
want to let the Caps go into that second intermission with a lead, either. Only Tampa Bay (19) and Montreal (18) have
more wins than the Caps (17).
5. We know Toronto
gives up a ton of shots. Unfortunately,
the Caps are not a team that handles such situations well. Washington is 7-8-4 when outshooting the
opposition, their .368 winning percentage ranking 26th in the league.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Toronto: Dion Phaneuf
When the coach is a casualty of poor performance, much of
the attention turns to the team captain.
Dion Phaneuf has been in the league ten years, parts of six of them with
the Maple Leafs, and he has been team captain since June 14, 2010. Phaneuf’s headline numbers (2-20-22, plus-6)
have been solid, consistent with his career averages. And, he has points in each of his last four
games (0-4-4). He leads the team in ice
time per game (23:34) and is tied for third on the team in power play
points. From a high level of
observation, he has been a solid contributor.
However, things don’t seem quite right.
Since he took over as captain, Phaneuf’s team has a 157-140-37 record,
has never finished higher than third in their division, and has been to the
playoffs once. Two coaches have been
dismissed in his captaincy. Is this
record of misfortune his fault? No, at
least no more so than those of the Caps are the fault of their captain, Alex
Ovechkin. But it is upon his shoulders
that a lot of the pressure exists in one of the most contentious media markets
in all of hockey. Few players in the
league have a tougher job than Dion Phaneuf, especially these days.
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
The other captain might be in midst of an extended hot
streak. In his last dozen games he is
7-6-13, plus-10 (that’s right, plus-10), and has five multi-point games. He is on a three-game multi-point streak as
the Caps visit Toronto. He has inched up
into a tie for sixth among goal scorers, and his plus-9 for the season is tied
for 53rd among all skaters (remember than last season he was 884th of 886
skaters in that statistic). His recent
production mirrors the success of the Caps (8-1-3 over those same last dozen
games). But good as he has been
recently, it almost goes to show that it is the supporting cast, which has been
productive as well, that has been as much a reason for the Caps’ recent
success. And the Maple Leafs are a team
against which Ovechkin might continue his good fortune. He is 27-22-49, plus-4, in 34 career games
against Toronto.
In the end…
The Toronto Maple Leafs pack more drama into a season than
perhaps any half dozen teams you could mention.
A team that enters this game with a 2-7-0 record over their last nine
games, that is hanging by a thread to a top-eight spot in the conference, and
that has fired its coach in favor of a two-headed system for the time being
certainly does not lack for drama. Will
it be a cause for the players to focus on the task at hand, or will it be a
distraction? For the Caps, it’s another
day at the office. Punch your time
cards, and bring your lunch pails, and it will be a good start to the road
trip.
Capitals 5 – Maple Leafs 3