The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals look to rebound from Tuesday’s 5-2 smacking at the hands of the New York Rangers when they return home to host the Boston Bruins on Thursday night. The Caps will be looking to extend an interesting streak. They have gone 24 straight regular season games without losing in consecutive contests, posting a record of 17-6-1 over that span.
The Washington Capitals look to rebound from Tuesday’s 5-2 smacking at the hands of the New York Rangers when they return home to host the Boston Bruins on Thursday night. The Caps will be looking to extend an interesting streak. They have gone 24 straight regular season games without losing in consecutive contests, posting a record of 17-6-1 over that span.
On the other hand, the Bruins are certainly hot in the here
and now. After dropping their first
three games to open the 2015-2016 season (and being outscored 16-7 in the
process), Boston is 6-1-1 in their last eight games, outscoring opponents by a
35-20 margin. And have they spread the
scoring around. The Bruins have goals
from 16 skaters and points from 19 skaters in the 6-1-1 run.
The leading goal scorers over this eight-game stretch are
David Krejci and Brad Marchand with five apiece. Marchand is on quite a tear to open the
season. His five goals in nine games is
not unheard of (he had six in nine games to open the abbreviated 2012-2013
season), but only once has he recorded more than two goals in his first nine
games of the season in his six-year career entering this season. Part of his success is shot volumes that are
almost Ovechkinian in their dimension.
Averaging just 2.04 shots per game over his career entering this season,
Marchand has 33 shots on goal in nine games (3.67/game). Only once in nine games has he been held
under three shots on goal. And, as if
you think he might have sanded the rough edges of his reputation as a
pot-stirrer, he is one of only two players in the league with at least five
goals and at least 20 penalty minutes (Montreal’s Torrey Mitchell is the
other). In 19 career games against
Washington, Marchand is 5-4-9, minus-3.
Krejci opened his season with a nine-game points streak,
extending his points streak to 11 straight regular season games dating back to
last season. He already has four multi-point
games this season, tied for the eighth-most in the league so far this season
(through Tuesday’s games). He has been a
very productive power play performer, tied for the league lead in power play
points (seven, with three other players, including teammate Patrice
Bergeron). Compare that to last season
when Krejci had only eight power play points in 47 games played. In 27 career games against the Caps, he is
5-13-17, minus-3.
If the Bruins have a problem, it is an unexpected one. Tuukka Rask has spent the past six seasons
establishing himself as one of the best puck-stoppers in the game. Since assuming a regular spot in the Bruins’
goaltending rotation in 2009-2010, Rask was 133-80-34, 2.16, .926, with 25
shutouts in 261 appearances. This
season, things are a bit different, at least so far. Rask has appeared in eight games to date, but
he has a record of 3-4-1, 3.51, .876. He
has allowed five or more goals in four of his appearances. He ranks 35th in goals against
average out of 39 goalies appearing in five or more games. His save percentage is 37th in
that group. His remedy? “I have to make more saves.”
That seems clear.
Here is how the two clubs compare in their numbers to date:
1. The Bruins have
had substantial contributions from the defense in their recent good
fortune. Over their last eight games, the
Bruins defense is 4-20-24. For the
season, through 11 games, the Caps’ defense is 5-20-25.
2. Boston has the
fourth-worst team save percentage in the league (.893). The three teams beneath them in the rankings –
Edmonton, Columbus, and Calgary – have a combined win-loss record of 11-27-1.
3. It might be worse
for the Bruins but for the fact that they are allowing the fourth fewest shots
on goal per game (27.1). The three teams ahead of them in the rankings – St.
Louis, Carolina, and the Caps – have a combined record of 21-13-1. It seems it is easier to save a shot you do
not have to face.
4. Only one team has
more players in double digit point totals than the five the Bruins have
(Krejci, Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug, and Jimmy Hayes). The Montreal Canadiens have a mind-boggling
eight players with double digit point totals.
5. Boston has a
middle-of-the-road possession ranking – 12th in corsi-for percentage
at 5-on-5 (50.9 percent). They do
struggle late in games, though. Their
48.0 Corsi-for percentage in the third periods of games ranks 22nd
(numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. The Caps lost Game
11 of the season to the New York Rangers on Tuesday night. Yes, it’s the Rangers. Yes, it is a team that has given the Caps
fits over the past few years. But, here’s
the thing. It’s Game 11. In 41 seasons, including this one, the Caps
have a franchise record of 13-20-5 in Game 11 of the season. And if you think it is better lately, now
that the Caps are a competitive team, think again. Since the 2007-2008 season, when the Caps
reached the postseason for the first time since the 2004-2005 lockout, the Caps
are 4-4-1 in Game 11 of the season.
2. Washington is
averaging just 6:43 in penalty time per game.
Only Minnesota (6:27) and Carolina (5:30) average less.
3. The Caps are
averaging only 2.82 power plays per game.
Only three teams average fewer – Calgary (2.77), the New York Rangers
(2.42), and the New York Islanders (2.23).
4. The lack of power
play opportunities put the Caps in the bottom half of special teams opportunity
differential. At minus-0.27 (power plays
per game less penalty kills per game), the Caps rank 19th overall.
5. The Caps are the
only team in the league that ranks in the top-five in Corsi-for percentage
overall in each of the three periods of games: fifth in the first period (53.4),
third in the second period (58.2), and fifth in the third period (54.3; numbers
from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Boston: Jimmy Hayes
The journey of Boston native Jimmy Hayes to the Bruins was a
circuitous one. He was drafted in the
second round of the 2008 entry draft by the Toronto Maple Leafs, but never
suited up for the Leafs. He was traded
by Toronto to the Chicago Blackhawks for a second round draft pick in 2010,
then was traded to the Florida Panthers as part of a multi-player deal in
2013. Finally, the Panthers traded Hayes
to Boston for Reilly Smith and Marc Savard last July. In his first season with the hometown Bruins,
Hayes is one of five players with at least ten points so far (3-7-10 in 11
games). He has points in four of his
last five games going into Thursday’s game against the Caps, including a
three-point night against the Arizona Coyotes on October 27th. In five career games, Hayes has yet to record
a point against the Capitals.
Washington: John Carlson
After John Carlson posted a three-assist game against the
Edmonton Oilers on October 23rd, it looked as if John Carlson had
taken his place among the top offensive defensemen in the NHL. Through seven games he was 2-8-11,
plus-3. Unfortunately, Carlson has not
recorded a point since, going without one over his last four games and
finishing a minus-3 in his last game, a 5-2 loss to the New York Rangers. His production on the power play – or lack of
it – coincides with that of the Caps. He
does not have a power play point in his last four games, and the Caps have been
blanked on the man-advantage over those same four games, going 0-for-9. He does have a power play goal and a pair of
assists on the man-advantage in 18 career games against Boston, posting an
overall scoring line of 3-5-8, plus-3.
In the end…
The Caps are catching teams at the top of their performance
cycle at the moment. Columbus won two in
a row before their game with the Caps last Saturday after losing their first
eight games. The New York Rangers went
into their game against the Caps with a 4-1-0 record in their previous five
games. The Bruins will go into their
contest against the Caps winners in six of their last eight games. However, you can tell when a team might be
coming to the end of their performance cycle.
After scoring 26 goals in five games (a 4-0-1 record), the Bruins scored
a total of six goals in two wins before losing to the Dallas Stars, 5-3, in
their last outing.
On the other hand, the Caps do have that string of games
without sustaining consecutive losses.
They have shown an ability to manage the schedule fairly well. They will be facing a team that has had
surprisingly uneven performances in goal, depending largely on a deep and
balanced offensive led by the league's best power play to put wins together.
The Caps will be looking to shore up what was a leaky defense in their
loss to the Rangers on Tuesday and take advantage of the league's worst penalty kill. That
will be incentive enough to carry the Caps into the weekend on a high note.
Capitals 4 – Bruins 2