The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals have had a good run of late, winning
seven of their last eight games. They
get a chance to make it eight wins in nine contests on Saturday evening when
they host the New Jersey Devils at Verizon Center.
The Capitals have not been what one would consider dominant
over those eight games, what with five of them settled by a single goal, two of
them in overtime (“3-2” seems to be the preferred score these days, the final
score in four of the wins).
On the other hand, the Devils come into this game having
gone 3-2-0 since they dropped a 3-2 Gimmick decision to the Caps at Verizon
Center on February 6th. Four of those
games were settled by a single goal, the Devils winning three of them (one in
overtime), before dropping a 6-3 decision to the Philadelphia Flyers on
Tuesday.
Scoring has been, and continues to be an issue for New
Jersey, which recorded a total of just nine goals in those five games. Even more ominous for the Devils, they
recorded only two even strength goals in those five games, both of them in
their 6-3 loss to the Flyers.
Among the individual scorers since last facing the Caps,
Adam Henrique is tied for the lead in goals (two, with Joseph Blandisi), and he
leads the team in total points (four).
On a team starved for offense (last in the league in scoring offense),
he has been one of the few reliable contributors. Since the beginning of the
new calendar year, Henrique is 6-6-12 in 20 games. He among the more accurate shooters in the
league, scoring 19 goals on 18.1 percent accuracy. That ranks tenth among players averaging at
least 10 minutes per game and appearing in at least 30 games. Henrique is 4-4-8, minus-9, in 16 career games
against the Caps.
Kyle Palmieri leads the Devils in goal scoring (21), but
until he scored against the Flyers last Tuesday he had gone nine games without
a marker. It was a case of things just drying up. Palmieri was 0-for-26 over
those nine-plus games before he struck late in the third period against
Philadelphia. However, he has already established a career best in goals,
surpassing the 14 goals he recorded in each of the past two seasons with the
Anaheim Ducks. He also has a career high
in total points (37), six better than the 31 he had in the 2013-2014 season
with Anaheim. In five career games
against the Caps, Palmieri is 0-1-1, minus-1.
Cory Schneider has been a workhorse in goal for the Devils
with great individual numbers, but with very little success in terms of wins
and losses. He is second in the league in total appearances (48, to Corey
Crawford’s 49) and first in total minutes played (2,876). Among 38 goalies with at least 1,200 minutes
played, he is second in goals against average (2.04, to Brian Elliott’s 1.99)
and fifth in save percentage (.928).
With all of that, he has just 25 wins in those 48 appearances. In four
appearances since facing the Caps on February 6th, Schneider is 2-2-0, 2.23,
.921. Against the Caps he is 3-4-2,
2.17, .920, with one shutout in his career.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. From the time Adam
Henrique scored at the 7:47 mark of the third period against the Caps on
February 6th until Jordin Tootoo scored at the 9:24 mark of the third period in
the Devils’ 6-3 loss to the Flyers last Tuesday, the Devils went 304:33 without
an even strength goal. They had six
power play goals and one shorthanded goal.
This is a team with offensive issues.
2. The Devils do not
have a goal from a defenseman in their last seven games. Not since David Schlemko scored a power play
goal (the game-winner) in the third period in a 3-2 win over the Rangers on
February 2nd.
3. The Devils have 12
players with at least ten points this season, but five of them are
defensemen. The Caps also have five
defensemen with at least ten points, but they also have 15 players overall
topping that number.
4. The Devils are
fine at both ends of the game in terms of goal differential, a plus-3 in the
first period and a plus-1 in the third.
But those second periods. Their
minus-12 goal differential is tied for fifth-worst in the league with the
Toronto Maple Leafs.
5. To say the Devils
are an awful possession team would be unfair.
Colorado is awful, residing in 30th place in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (43.1
percent). New Jersey is next to awful,
ranked 29th (46.4 percent). It is no
better in score-adjusted Corsi, either.
They still rank 29th (46.3 percent).
Over the five games since playing the Caps they are 46.5 percent overall
(numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. In six games since
facing the Islanders, the Caps have outscored opponents, 21-15. They are 4-for-23 on the power play (17.4
percent) and 22-for-25 killing penalties (88.0 percent).
2. Alex Ovechkin
leads the Caps in goals and points since the team faced the Islanders last
(8-0-8). He has 16 goals in his last 16
games. Nicklas Backstrom leads in
assists with six. He has 15 assists in
19 games in the 2016 portion of the season.
3. Despite the heavy
goal totals from Ovechkin, the Caps do have goals from nine different players
in their last six games. They also have
points from 15 different skaters, five of them five or more points.
4. The Caps are the
only team in the league with a winning percentage over .500 when allowing the
game’s first goal (.519/14-9-4).
5. Washington is not
exactly lighting the world on fire with their possession numbers, either. Since facing the Devils back on February 6th,
their Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall is 48.5 percent (numbers from war-on-ice.com)
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New Jersey: Keith Kincaid
The flip side of having a goaltender get as many minutes as
Cory Schneider does for the Devils means that the backup spend a lot of time on
the bench modeling headwear. There have
been 84 goalies to dress in the NHL this season. Of that number, New Jersey backup goaltender
Keith Kincaid ranks 62nd in total minutes played, and the 22 goalies
behind him include a lot of netminders who might have been called up from the
minors for a game or two. The lack of
playing time hardly makes Kinkaid a bad goaltender. Quite the contrary. In 31 career games he has a respectable .916
save percentage. This year he is 4-5-1,
2.28, .918 in 11 appearances, including a 28-save, 1-0 shutout of the Los
Angeles Kings in his last appearance on Valentine’s Day. With the Devils playing back-to-back games
this weekend, starting with the New York Islanders on Friday night (Schneider is expected to get the call against the Islanders), the Caps might get a look at Kinkaid.
He is 0-0-2, 2.24, .921 in three career appearances against the
Capitals.
Washington: Marcus Johansson
Last year, Marcus Johansson set career bests in goals (20)
and points (47). With 25 games to go in
this season he is on a pace to do even better in goals (21) and points
(52). His plus-14 has already demolished
he previous career best (plus-6 last season), he has more game winning goals
this season (7) than his last three seasons combined (6), his shooting
percentage is his best ever (16.1), and while
he is still a work in progress as a faceoff man, his 48.4 percent is,
yes, another career high. Since missing
four games earlier this month to injury, Johansson is 1-3-4, plus-2, in five
games. If there is one thing missing
from his offensive game it is reflected in a return to old habits – a reluctance
to shoot. He has just 10 shots on goal
in his last ten games. Johansson is
3-3-6, minus-1, in 19 career games against New Jersey.
In the end…
The Devils have a good record in the second half of
back-to-back sets of games, 4-1-2 so far this season. That one loss in regulation came to the Caps
on October 10th, a 5-3 loss in the Devils’ second game of the season. On the other hand, the Caps are in a good
schedule rhythm at the moment, not having had back-to-back games on their
record since January 16-17. This is the
first game of a four-game home stand for the Caps and an opportunity to take
advantage of teams that have had their issues at one time or another this
season – New Jersey, Arizona, Montreal, and Minnesota. But you can only play the team that is next
on the schedule, and the Devils will be their usual annoyingly devoted to their
system selves. It might make for an ugly
game, but then again, all wins are beautiful in their own way.
Capitals 3 – Devils 1
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