The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals look to make it a back-to-back
winning weekend when they take on the St. Louis Blues at Verizon Center on
Saturday night. The Caps will try to build on their 1-0 overtime win in New Jersey against
the Devils on Friday night. On the other
side, the Blues will also be trying to make it a win-win weekend after their
4-0 win against the Vancouver Canucks on Friday night.
Both teams come into this game on a bit of a hot
streak. The Caps have won four of their
last five contests, going 2-1-0 on their just-completed three-game road
trip. The Blues are on a three-game
winning streak, all of the wins coming by way of shutout.
The author of those shutouts was goaltender Brian Elliott,
who returned on March 19th after suffering a knee injury against the
San Jose Sharks on February 22nd and missing ten games. Elliott is perhaps the best goaltender in the
league who gets almost no recognition. Over
five seasons in St. Louis, he is the only goaltender in the league with a goals
against average under 2.10 (2.00), a save percentage of .925 or better (.925),
and 25 or more shutouts (25). He has
been nothing short of spectacular in the 2016 portion of the season. In 22 appearances he is 14-3-4, 1.73, .943,
with four shutouts. He also brings a
personal eight-game winning streak into this game, if he gets the call (he shut out Vancouver on Friday night). In ten career games against the Caps, Elliott
is 6-2-0, 3.17, .886.
If it isn’t Elliott, it is likely to be Jake Allen in goal
for the Blues. Allen struggled in relief
of Elliott, taking the loss in three consecutive games, including the game
unfinished by Elliott against the Sharks on February 22nd. He followed that up with six straight wins,
but he struggled in his last two outings, allowing four goals on 17 shots in
just 31 minutes of a 7-4 loss to Calgary on March 14, and then allowing five
goals on 26 shots in a 6-4 loss to Edmonton on March 16th. Allen has never faced the Capitals.
The Blues are not an especially prolific offensive team,
tied for 19th in scoring offense in the league (2.57 goals per
game). They are not an especially
balanced team, either. Vladimir Tarasenko
has been involved in just over a third of the 190 Blues’ goals scored this
season (34-30-64) and almost half of their 46 power play goals (12-10-22). Over the past four seasons, including this
one, Tarasenko is one of 14 players to dress for at least 250 games and record
at least 100 goals. He notched his 100th
career goal against Vancouver in a 3-0 win on March 19th. In three career games against the Caps,
Tarasenko is 1-1-2, plus-3.
Over the last five seasons, including this one, only nine
defensemen have more points in the NHL than Kevin Shattenkirk (45-149-194 in
330 games). This season, only five
defensemen have more power play points than he does (23), and he has done it
with at least 50 fewer power play minutes than any of the defensemen ranked
ahead of him. He comes into this game
with points in six of his last nine games (3-5-8). If there is an odd stat in his season line,
especially given the team for which he plays, it is that he is a minus-16, by
far the worst of his career (he was minus-11 in his rookie season in Colorado in
2010-2011 before being traded to St. Louis in mid-season). In seven career games against the Caps,
Shattenkirk is 1-4-5, plus-4.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. No team has more
shutouts than the Blues (nine). They
have done it allowing as few as 15 shots in a game (4-0 over Vancouver on
Friday night) and as many as 45 (4-0 over Nashville on November 7th).
2. No team has had
fewer power play chances on the road this season than St. Louis (95). Only once have they had more than four
chances in a road game, that coming in Winnipeg against the Jets on October 18th. They went 1-for-6 in that game, a 4-2 win.
3. Winning when
leading after two periods is standard operating procedure in the NHL, but it is
not fool-proof. The Blues have only lost
one game in regulation when leading after two periods this season, but their
winning percentage (.806) ranks just 24th in the league (25-1-5).
4. St. Louis has
earned its success in winning close games.
Their 24-3-9 record in one-goal games is the second best winning
percentage (.667) in the league to Washington (.711). On the other hand, the Blues are just 20-19
in games settled by more than one goal.
5. The Blues are the
seventh-best team in the league in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall in road games
(50.9 percent). They were 50 percent or
better in eight of their last ten road games, hitting or surpassing 60 percent
three times. They are a combined 55.0
percent over those last ten road games (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. When the Caps beat
the Devils, 1-0, in overtime on Friday night, it was their 27th
one-goal win this season. Only ten teams
in the post 2004-2005 lockout era have more one-goal victories.
2. At the other end,
the Caps are 26-9 in games settled by more than one goal, just one win short of
the total number of wins posted by Vancouver and Toronto this season (27).
3. John Carlson leads
the team’s defensemen with 32 points, but if Matt Niskanen can post one more,
and if Dmitry Orlov can get two more points, it would give the Caps three
30-point defensemen, matching the total they had last year and the most for the
club in the post 2004-2005 lockout period.
4. The Caps have a
shot at finishing the season with eight 40-point players. Six have already reached that mark (Evgeny
Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Justin Williams, T.J. Oshie, and
Marcus Johansson). Two more have a
chance to get there – Jason Chimera (37) and Andre Burakovsky( 36). If they do, the eight 40-point players will
match the eight in the 2009-2010 season as most in the post 2004-2005 lockout
era. The team record is 12, in 1991-1992.
5. The Caps were
improving at home, holding opponents to fewer than 50 shot attempts per 60
minutes at 5-on-5 on home ice for three straight games until they allowed
63.9/60 to Nashville in their last home contest. Those three straight games under 50
attempts/60 minutes was pretty good in the context of the season in which they
held opponents under 50 attempts/60 minutes only ten times overall (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
St. Louis: Alex Pietrangelo
Of how many defensemen could it be said that a 5-24-29,
plus-4, in 65 games is an “off” season?
For Alex Pietrangelo that might be the case. The 29 points in 65 games (0.45 points per
game) is the first time in six full seasons that he averaged less than half a
point a game from the blue line. Over
those six full seasons, including this one, Pietrangelo ranks 12th
overall among defensemen in points per game (0.56; minimum: 300 games). And, he is a minutes-eater. Only four defensemen in the league have logged
more than 25 minutes in more games than Pietrangelo (48 games). The 21:36 he had against Vancouver on Friday
night was almost like a night off. It was his lowest ice time of the season. He is 2-6-8, plus-10, over his last 13 contests,
and in six career games against the Caps he has yet to record a point.
Washington: John Carlson
John Carlson returned to the lineup on Friday night after
missing a month with a lower-body injury.
He did it in style, recording the first overtime goal of his career in
the Caps’ 1-0 win over the New Jersey Devils.
His return comes just in time to give the Caps a healthy defense for
their final stretch run before the playoffs.
And that cannot help but be a good thing, either. The Caps, despite having the second best
scoring offense in the league, does not get a lot of scoring from the back
line. Eight defensemen have points this
season for the Caps (only St. Louis and the New York Rangers have fewer with
points, seven apiece), and it is possible that no Capital defenseman will
finish the season with as many as ten goals (Dmitry Orlov has eight). Carlson’s seven goals in 48 games works out
to a pace of 12 goals per 82 games, consistent with his last two seasons. If he can be that threat from the blue line
going forward, the Caps can become the formidable team they were over their
first 50 games. In eight career games
against the Blues, Carlson is 1-3-4, even.
In the end…
St. Louis is not an easy team to play against. No Ken Hitchcock team is. His teams will make opponents work for every
inch over the 200 foot ice surface. It
puts a premium on the seemingly contradictory elements of quickness and
patience. The Caps will have to be disciplined
and aware of hard-closing defenders to make quick, crisp passes, but they will have to
be patient against a club that allows the eighth-fewest shot attempts at 5-on-5
in the league. Close games have been
a staple for the Caps, though. Eight of their 12
games in March were one-goal decisions, and they are 6-1-1 in those
contests. This could be another in that
string.
Capitals 3 – Blues 2