“The trees that are slow to grow bear the best fruit.”
-- Moliere
The first question we might ask as Tom Wilson skates into
his fifth season with the Washington Capitals is, “is he on track in his
development, or was his draft class a weak one that inflates his status within
that class?” The answer starts with
where he started, as the 16th overall pick of the 2012 entry draft,
between Codi Ceci (taken by the Ottawa Senators) and Tomas Hertl (selected by
the San Jose Sharks).
Of the 211 players taken in the 2012 draft, only Alex
Galchenyuk has appeared in more games (336) than Wilson (313). Otherwise,
Wilson’s numbers rank roughly with his draft position: goals (21/T-17th),
assists (48/T-16th), points (69/T-14th), plus-minus
(plus-12/T-10th).
However, from another angle Wilson’s progress appears to
have stalled. Whether it is a product of
playing almost exclusively fourth line minutes or just plateauing, his numbers
have not moved much over the last three seasons. Goals (four, seven, and seven over the past
three seasons), assists (13, 16, and 12), and points (17, 23, and 19).
If there was something to take away in a more positive sense
for Wilson last season, it is that he recovered from a sluggish start. He started the season with one point (a goal)
in his first 26 games but recovered to go 6-12-18 over his last 56 games (a
9-18-27 pace over 82 games). It was part
of a more engaged profile in the offensive end, at least as far as getting shots
on goal was concerned. After registering
only 27 shots on goal in those first 26 games, he had 68 shots in his last 56
games (1.21 per game) and 22 in his last 15 games (1.47 per game).
Odd Wilson Fact… Tom Wilson remains a player who does not
shy away from defending himself and teammates, although he did for the second
consecutive season keep his fighting major penalties in single digits
(nine). Of those nine fighting majors,
six of them came in road games.
Fearless’ Take…
One of the features of Tom Wilson’s development to date has
been the waiting game of sorts as he progresses from a “physical” player with
modest offensive numbers to a more well-rounded game. Wilson is likely to always be considered a “power
forward,” but there is evidence – baby steps, if you will – to suggest the turn
is coming. He did tie for tenth in the
league in fighting majors last season, an uptick from the previous season when
he was tied for 17th with seven such majors. But there appears to be less of a “running
around” aspect to his game, reflected in his hit total and the consequences of
it. The Caps were just 13-11-3 in the 27
games in which he had four or more hits, 42-8-5 when he had fewer than four
hits. That can be a product of the Caps –
and Wilson – not chasing the puck in that winning record, but if one is looking
at hints of an evolution in Wilson’s game, this could be a modest one.
Cheerless’ Take…
Four seasons, four times with more than 130 minutes in
penalties. Only one player in the league
since the 2004-2005 lockout has as many seasons with that many or more PIMs in
his first four seasons (Jared Boll). One
is a former fourth round draft pick with 27 goals and almost 1,300 penalty
minutes in his career, the other is a 16th overall draft pick. He had 133 penalty minutes last season, his
fewest in four seasons, but at the moment, a line from the movie, “The Matriix,”
comes to mind… “you have been down there… you know that road, you know exactly
where it ends. And I know that's not
where you want to be.”
Potential Milestones to Reach in 2017-2018:
- 100 points (currently has 69)
The Big Question… Is
this the season that Tom Wilson takes a big step up?
That is a question that can be looked at from a number of
different angles. In one sense, he took
quite a step up last season. He took
regular shifts killing penalties, averaging a career best 2:04 in shorthanded
ice time per game (fourth among forwards for the Caps). Quite a difference from his first two seasons
when he recorded a total of 46 seconds skating shorthanded in 149 games played. This season, he will have at least the
opportunity to broaden his even strength game.
There will be some sorting out at right wing behind T.J., Oshie with the
departure of Justin Williams. Grabbing a
second line spot on the right side might be a reach, but a third line spot
would almost be an expectation for a player with more than 350 regular and
postseason games played in the NHL. Wilson has not averaged as much as 12 minutes
of even strength ice time per game in any of his four seasons and topped 11
minutes per game just once (11:13 in 2015-2016). He is going to have the space and opportunity
to expand on that this season.
In the end…
In his first four seasons, Tom Wilson was a too-often
one-dimensional player, one who could intimidate physically but whose skill-based
contributions were more modest. Now, he
has an opportunity to broaden his portfolio, to move up the depth ladder from
the fourth line to which he was pinned by more experienced and skilled right
wingers over his first four seasons.
If there were few bright spots in last spring's postseason for the
Caps, Wilson might have been one. He averaged
almost 14 minutes per game in 13 postseason contests, a career high. He also recorded his first three playoff
goals, and although all of them came in the first round series against the
Toronto Maple Leafs (including the game-winner in Game 1), it was a step forward
for Wilson.
Tom Wilson has demonstrated himself to be a durable (three
seasons appearing in every regular season game) and at times intimidating
player. He has been a bit slower in
demonstrating a consistent offensive game.
It is time for that part of his game to bear fruit.
Projection: 82 games, 11-18-29, plus-8
Photo: Claus Andersen/Getty Images North America