The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals return home on Saturday night,
hoping to shake off the putrid aroma of their visit to Newark on Thursday when
they fell to the New Jersey Devils, 6-0.
The Devils, a plucky group, don’t scare many folks offensively (even if
they do lead the NHL in scoring offense at 5.50 goals per game), yet they abused
the Caps for those six goals, the most they scored in a game since they clubbed
the Vegas Golden Knights, 8-3, last March 14th.
Saturday’s opponent, on the other hand, will put the fear of
God in their foes. The Toronto Maple
Leafs are second in the league in scoring offense through Thursday’s games
(5.00 goals per game), and they happen to have the only four players in the
league with at least ten points. Auston
Matthews is tied for the league lead (12 points) with teammate Morgan Rielly,
and he leads the league with an astounding nine goals in only five games (that
is a 148-goal pace, which would be a record).
How hot is Matthews? He is the
only player since 2005-2006 to record at least ten shots on goal and a shooting
percentage over 50 percent (52.9 percent on 9-for-17 shooting so far). But here is a statistic that amazes. He has taken four power play shots this season, and he scored on all of them.
Yes, 4-for-4. Matthews is so hot
that he might not be able to melt tungsten (melting point: 6192 degrees Fahrenheit),
but he could soften it. And, he has been
an equal opportunity abuser of opponents in his brief career to date. Despite a resume with only 149 games in
two-plus seasons, Matthews has scored at least one goal against 27 of the other
30 teams in the league (Calgary, Philadelphia, and St. Louis have blanked him
so far). In five career games against
the Caps, he is 1-3-4, even.
As for Morgan Rielly, he gets far less attention than
Matthews and certainly a lot less than one might expect for a fifth-overall
draft pick (2012). However, the
sixth-year defenseman had an awakening last season, almost doubling his
career-best assist total (46, compared to 27 in 2016-2017) and setting a career
high in points (52, tied for 15th among defensemen last
season). He leads all defensemen in
scoring so far (12 points, six ahead of Washington’s John Carlson and Ottawa’s
Thomas Chabot), and his nine assists lead all of the league’s skaters
regardless of position. Six of those assists
have come on power plays, also a league high.
Rielly is 1-6-7, minus-5, in 15 career games against Washington.
One rung down on the scoring list for Toronto two players
are tied with ten points apiece. Mitch
Marner looks as if he might be blown over in a light breeze, but his slight
build is hardly an impediment to his production. He went 19-42-61 in his rookie season two
years ago and 22-47-69 last season (while playing in all 82 games). What is noteworthy about that is that Marner
is one of two players in the history of the franchise to record at least 60
points in each of his first two NHL seasons (Matthews is the other; source: hockey-reference.com). He is well on his way to a third 60-point
season, if not a good deal more. Marner
is 2-3-5, minus-4, in six career games against the Caps.
The three precocious youngsters (average age is under 23)
almost make one forget about the big free agent prize who is the fourth Leaf
with at least ten points in the early going.
John Tavares, who signed a seven-year/$77 million deal to play in his
hometown (he was born in Mississauga, just outside Toronto), has those ten
points, but nine of them came in the last three games (5-4-9), including a hat
trick in a 7-6 win over the Chicago Blackhawks last Sunday. His 6-4-10 start is quite a bit hotter than
it was last season when he went without a point in six of his first seven games
with the New York Islanders. The 15
goals Tavares has in 34 career games against the Caps is topped only by the 18
he has against the Philadelphia Flyers (in 42 games) and the 22 goals he has
against the Carolina Hurricanes (in 34 games).
Overall, he is 15-15-30 in those 34 career games against Washington.
1. Toronto wraps up
its four game road trip with this game.
Frankly, they might want to stay on the road. The Maple Leafs have scored 19 goals in the
first three games of the trip. No team
in the league has that many goals overall through Thursday (the Caps and
Blackhawks have 18 apiece).
2. What Toronto
taketh, they giveth away. No team has
allowed more goals than the Maple Leafes (20, tied with Ottawa).
3. As goal-happy as
the Maple Leafs are, their goal scoring is quite concentrated. Seven players account for their 25 goals
(Matthews and Tavares account for 15 by themselves). Ten teams have more players with at least one
goal, including the Caps (eight).
4. The Leafs can be
sloppy with the puck. Only Los Angeles
has more charged giveaways (56) than Toronto (53). On the other hand, they take it away,
too. Their 47 takeaways are second-most
in the league (Carolina has 49 through Thursday). But, they do block shots. Toronto’s 83 blocked shots tops the league.
5. Toronto is a
somewhat indifferent team when it comes to possession; their 50.49 shot
attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 ranks only 14th. However, they do play with more urgency when
behind. Their SAT percentage at 5-on-5
of 65.71 is third-highest in the league (source: NHL.com).
1. The Caps go into
this game with a 2-1-1 record. That’s
the same record they had through four games last season. And in fact, their shots totals, for and
against, look better this time around (123 for, 133 against) than they did at
this time last season (99/147).
2. Fo’ Fo’ Fo’…
Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and John Carlson each have four power play
points, and they account for five of the six Capitals power play goals (Alex
Ovechkin has the other).
3. The Caps are an
efficient bunch. Six of the 20 skaters
to dress so far are shooting at 20 percent or better: T.J. Oshie (44.4
percent), Carlson (28.6), Kuznetsov (25.0), Ovechkin (23.5), Nic Dowd (20.0),
and Brooks Orpik (20.0).
4. The Caps have a
productive offense, but one might wonder how much more productive they might be
if they could grab possession more assertively in the offensive zone. To wit, the Caps are last in the league in
offensive zone faceoff winning percentage (39.8).
5. Teams tend to play
with more urgency when trailing, and this is often reflected in shot attempt
numbers. But, the Caps are 27th
of 30 teams in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (44.95) when trailing. Note, we said “of 30 teams.” New Jersey does not register on this metric
because they did not trail at any point in their first two games.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Toronto: Frederik Andersen
The Maple Leafs are going to be a fun group to watch. The scoreboard at Scotiabank Arena might better
be replaced by a pinball machine. But
that cuts two ways, too. Frederik
Andersen is the guy at the other end of the ice watching those skaters wreak
havoc on opposing goalies, but he’s the guy who has to deal with the chances
such a wide open approach to offense affords opponents. It is early, but he has been challenged. Fifty goalies dressed for games through
Thursday, and his 3.28 goals against average ranked 32nd of that
group, while his .893 save percentage ranked 30th. Andersen also has to fend off a barrage of
pucks on a night to night basis. Since arriving
in Toronto from the Anaheim Ducks in 2016-2017, no goalie in the league has
faced more shots on goal (4,385), almost 200 more than Cam Talbot (4,210) and
almost 500 more than third-place Sergei Bobrovsky (3,909). No goaltender in that span has had more games
facing 40 or more shots on goal than Andersen (22). Toronto might score a ton of goals this
season, but it isn’t doing their netminder any favors, and it might be that the
Leafs go far only if Andersen can keep enough fingers in the dike to keep from
having a flood of goals against wash over them.
In five career games against the Caps, Andersen is 3-1-1, 2.88, .909,
with two shutouts.
Washington: Lars Eller
Who is last on the Capitals in plus-minus so far this
season? Who is last among forwards in
shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 when trailing in games? Which forward has been on ice for most total
goals against so far? The answer to all
three questions is “Lars Eller.” He was
last seen scoring the game-winning, series-clinching, Cup-winning goal for the
Caps last June, so a slow start is not necessarily surprising, and it carries
with it a “so what” nature to it. You
score the Cup-clinching goal, you get free drinks for life and a lot of slack
for an iffy start. Nevertheless, Eller
is counted on as part of that “deep down the middle” logic behind successful
teams. The good news is, Eller didn’t
exactly produce fireworks to open last season, either. He did not score a goal until his tenth game
of the season (he has one this season) and was 0-3-3, minus-3 over his first
nine games. If he is going to breakout,
it might be against this team. Eller is
7-10-17, plus-3, in 34 games against Toronto, that point total being the most
he has against any team in the NHL.
In the end…
The Caps had an offensive hiccup against the Devils, getting
blanked after scoring 18 goals in their first three games. It is on the other side of the puck where
concerns lie. It is only four games, but
Washington has alternated stinginess with generosity – no goals allowed to Boston,
followed by seven Penguins goals, and then just two against Vegas, followed by
six allowed to the Devils. If the
pattern holds, the Caps will be stingy in this one. However, that might not be the way to bet,
and it certainly is not a pattern the Caps want to follow for very long. They were successful last year when paying
attention to the details of defensive structure. It is not a new idea, but it is one with
which they need to become reacquainted if they are to beat this team and be
successful moving forward.
Capitals 4 – Maple Leafs 3
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