The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals open the road portion of their
season on Thursday night when they visit PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh to face
the Penguins their season opener. When
last seen on this ice sheet, the Capitals were celebrating Evgeny Kuznetsov’s
game-winning, series-clinching, demon-slaying overtime goal to send the
Capitals to the Eastern Conference final last spring and the Pens to drown their sorrows in
pickled herring.
As the teams take their first steps on this season’s
journey, both are in familiar territory.
Both are thought to be contenders for a Metropolitan Division crown (the
Caps have won it the past three seasons, while the Penguins finished second in
those seasons). Both will be threats to
top the 100-point mark (both teams have done so the past three seasons). Each will be eyeing the other warily in
anticipation of yet another second round matchup next spring (they have met
there in each of the last three postseasons).
But for now, the theme might be the unfamiliar. The Caps take the ice in this contest as the
defending Stanley Cup champion, the first time they can say that in their
history, while the Penguins are starting a season without that “defending
Stanley Cup champion” label, having lost their last playoff series, the first
time they lost a playoff series since the New York Rangers ended their season
in the first round of the 2015 playoffs.
If Pittsburgh does not return virtually its entire lineup
from last season, as did the Caps, they return the essentials. They return their top nine point-getters from
last season, a group that contributed 199 of the team’s 270 goals scored last
season. Evgeni Malkin led all Penguins
with 42 goals and 98 points, most in both categories since he had 50 goals and
109 points in 2011-2012. Last season was
also Malkin’s most efficient from a goal-scoring standpoint, converting a
career high 17.6 percent of his shots on goal.
His success last season was due, in part, to durability he has not
displayed in recent seasons. He dressed
for 78 games, more than any season since he appeared in all 82 games of the
2008-2009 season. On the other side, he
has been known to be chippy from time to time, and his 87 penalty minutes were
more than he had in any season since 2009-2010, when he had 100 PIMs in 67
games. Malkin is 18-39-57, even, in 40
career games against Washington.
Thirteen seasons, thirteen times averaging at least a point
per game. Sidney Crosby is the only
player in the league to have averaged at least a point per game in every season
since 2005-2006 (Malkin is second with 11 seasons, and Alex Ovechkin is third
with ten). However, it might be time to
at least whisper, “is Crosby slowing down?”
Over his first nine seasons he ranged from 1.26 to 1.68 points per game
and averaged 1.40 points per game over the period. However, over the last four seasons his
points per game ranged from 1.06 to 1.19 and averaged 1.11.
“Slowing down” as it applies to Crosby is a relative thing and needs to be looked at in the context of the high performance standard he has set for more than a decade. Over the last four seasons, only 12 players (including Crosby) have had at least one season averaging 1.11 points per game (Malkin, Nikita Kucherov, and Connor McDavid did it twice). It is not an easy feat. His slipping just a touch showed up in the postseason recognition, too. He finished fifth in the voting at center for the NHL All-Star team, his lowest finish in a season in which he appeared in 50 or more games since 2007-2008, when he finished fifth. He finished 17th in the Hart Trophy voting, his lowest finish in a 50-plus game season since that same 2007-2008 season when he finished 17th. Crosby is 20-43-63, minus-2, in 45 career games against Washington.
“Slowing down” as it applies to Crosby is a relative thing and needs to be looked at in the context of the high performance standard he has set for more than a decade. Over the last four seasons, only 12 players (including Crosby) have had at least one season averaging 1.11 points per game (Malkin, Nikita Kucherov, and Connor McDavid did it twice). It is not an easy feat. His slipping just a touch showed up in the postseason recognition, too. He finished fifth in the voting at center for the NHL All-Star team, his lowest finish in a season in which he appeared in 50 or more games since 2007-2008, when he finished fifth. He finished 17th in the Hart Trophy voting, his lowest finish in a 50-plus game season since that same 2007-2008 season when he finished 17th. Crosby is 20-43-63, minus-2, in 45 career games against Washington.
Over a six-year period, defenseman Kris Letang finished in
the top-ten in Norris Trophy voting as the league’s top defenseman five times
and was a finalist once. The only time
he did not receive votes, in 2013-2014, he played in only 37 games due to injury
and a heart ailment. In each of the last
two seasons, though, Letang has received no votes for the Norris, a product of
his appearing in only 41 games in 2016-2017, but last year receiving no votes
despite playing in 79 games, the most in a season since he dressed for all 82
games in 2010-2011. He does have quite a
resume, though. Since he became a
full-time player in 2007-2008, he ranks 11th in goals scored by a
defenseman (94) and is ninth in points (435).
But his presence was an important ingredient to Penguin success last
year. Pittsburgh was 20-4-4 in games in
which Letang skated more than 26 minutes.
In 34 career games against the Caps, Letang is 5-10-15, minus-23. Yes… minus-23.
1. This will be the
third time that the Penguins opened the home portion of their season against
Washington. They are 2-0, winning a 5-4
decision to open the 1986-1987 season and taking a 3-2 Gimmick decision to open
the 2016-2017 season.
2. If Crosby gets
three points in this game, he will tie Jaromir Jagr on the Penguins’ all-time
scoring list against the Capitals. Mario
Lemieux tops the list with 101 career points against the Capitals.
3. Pittsburgh had the
second best home power play last season at 26.7 percent, finishing within
rounding error of the top-ranked New Jersey Devils.
4. The Penguins were
a successful team when pulling the goalie last year. The nine goals they scored at 6-on-5 were
second most in the league. Philadelphia
had ten.
5. Pittsburgh had shooting issues on home ice.
Their 7.3 percent shooting percentage at 5-on-5 ranked 22nd in the league (source: NHL.com).
1. Alex Ovechkin has
scored more goals against the Penguins than any player in the league since he
came into the league in 2005-2006, and it isn’t close. Ovechkin has 33 career goals against
Pittsburgh, while second-place Mike Knuble has 24.
2. It would make
sense, given the last item, that Nicklas Backstrom has more assists against the
Penguins than any other player since 2005-2006.
He does, and that’s not close, either.
His 40 assists, accumulated since he came into the league in 2007-2008,
are nine more than Claude Giroux.
3. If Ovechkin was to
record three power play points, he would tie Mike Gartner as the team’s
all-time leader in power play points against the Penguins (27).
4. Washington did not
lack for power play chances against Pittsburgh last season. No team in the league had more chances (18). But they converted only two; only four teams
had a worse success rate against the Penguins than the Caps (11.1 percent).
5. The Caps were just
about as unsuccessful killing penalties against the Pens last season. There was the problem of too many shorthanded
situations faced (19, more than any other team), and killing only 13 of them,
the 68.4 percent penalty killing 20th among teams facing the
Penguins.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Pittsburgh: Matt Murray
For a guy with two Stanley Cups, this guy seems to have
something to prove. No goalie in his
first three seasons appeared in more postseason games than Murray (44), but
that really is not the issue, at least entirely. After winning Cups in his first two seasons, he made Marc-Andre Fleury expendable
and eventually available in the expansion draft, where he was taken by the
Vegas Golden Knights. His third season
did not follow the script, though. He
missed seven games in two different chunks to injury, and he was absent for six
games for family reasons, dressing for a total of 49 games in the regular
season. He was not especially effective,
his .907 save percentage ranking 37th of 45 goalies with at least
1,500 minutes of ice time, and his 2.92 goals against average ranking 31sdt in
that group. He was hardly better in the
postseason, his .908 save percentage ranking 11th of 20 goalies with
at least 100 minutes, and his 2.43 goals against average ranking eighth. Perhaps with less misfortune than he endured
last season he will rebound to reach the elite level expected of him. It is hard to see how the Penguins go deep in
the spring without him approaching that level. Murray is 4-4-0, 3.66, .882 in eight
appearances against the Capitals.
Washington: Braden Holtby
The schedule makers did the Caps no favors giving them a
back-to-back set of games to open the season.
That they will have six days off before taking the ice for Game 3 on the
schedule suggests that Braden Holtby will get the call in Pittsburgh after
starting on Opening Night. It might be
worth noting that while Holtby did start consecutive games once last season, he
did not finish consecutive games. He was
pulled 21 minutes into a 3-1 loss to the New York Islanders after allowing
three goals on 12 shots on December 11th, and then he followed that
up the next night with a 22-save effort in a 5-2 win over the Colorado
Avalanche. He has not started and
finished back-to-back games since he stopped 22 shots in a 4-2 win over the Colorado
Avalanche on February 6, 2016, followed by a 33-save gem in a 3-2 win over the
Philadelphia Flyers. Holtby is 8-9-2,
2.90, .911, with two shutouts in 20 career appearances against the Penguins.
In the end…
Opening Night was emotion on steroids for the Capitals. The red carpet, the crowd, the banner raising. One wonders what the Caps will have in the
tank on a night following such a scene.
It will be something of an odd season opener for the Penguins in that
for the first time in three seasons they do not have a banner raising of their
own. This might be a game played on raw
dislike for one another, the Pens wanting to send a message that the Caps can
count on being “one-and-done” as far as championships go, and the Caps, well…because it’s the Penguins. It is always interesting between these teams,
and this should be no different.
Capitals 3 – Penguins 2