The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals return home on Thursday evening
after a three-game road trip to host the Montreal Canadiens. The Caps will hope home cooking will help
them snap a two-game losing streak and a stretch in which they went 3-6-0 to
slip into second place in the Metropolitan Division behind the Pittsburgh
Penguins. Montreal has been worse of
late, arriving in Washington with a five-game losing streak (0-4-1) in their
baggage.
Then and Now…
This will be the 171st meeting of the Caps and
Canadiens in the all-time regular season series. The Caps are 74-74-5 (17 ties) and 39-34-2
(nine ties) on home ice. Since
2005-2006, Washington is 31-15-5 against Montreal and 13-10-2 on home ice. This game will complete the three-game
regular season series for the teams this year, each winning on the other’s home
ice in the first two games, the Canadiens winning in Washington, 5-2, on
November 15th, and the Caps winning in Montreal, 4-2, on January 27th.
Active Leaders vs. Opponent…
Noteworthy Opponents…
The history of the Montreal Canadiens is brimming with names
any hockey fan recognizes – Maurice “Rocket” Richard, Jean Beliveau, Guy
LaFleur, Larry Robinson, Ken Dryden. The
Canadiens these days do not have many names that register with fans, especially
when you look at the most productive players on the road this season. Three Canadiens have posted 20 or more points
in road games so far, led by Tomas Tatar (12-17-29 in 29 road games).
Tatar is in his ninth NHL season after being drafted by the Detroit
Red Wings in the second round (60th overall) in the 2009 Entry
Draft. In his seventh season with the
Wings, he was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights for Vegas' first-round pick in
the 2018 Entry Draft, a second- round pick in the 2019 Entry Draft, and a
third-round pick in the 2021 Entry Draft.
After finishing the 2017-2018 season with the Golden Knights, he was
traded to Montreal with Nick Suzuki and the Golden Knights’ second-round pick
in the 2019 Entry Draft for Max Pacioretty.
In his first season with the Canadiens last year, he posted 25 goals and
a career high 58 points. In 62 games to
date this season, he has 21 goals, and his 54 points put him on a pace (71
points) to top his career high with room to spare.
Tatar’s production on the road this season is a product of
scoring in bursts. In 29 road games to
date he has seven multi-point games, including a four-point game (1-3-4) in
Montreal’s 5-2 win over the Caps in November, his first and only career
four-point game. He is 3-6-9, plus-2, in
his last seven road games. Tatar is
7-9-16, plus-9, in 19 career games against the Caps.
Nick Suzuki, who came to Montreal with Tatar in the Max
Pacioretty trade with Vegas, is the second of three 20-point road scorers for
the Canadiens this season (7-16-23). That
road scoring output is what has helped vault him into a tie for third place in
scoring among this year’s rookie class (40 points, tied with Buffalo’s Victor
Olofsson). He is also third in this
rookie class in power play goals (six) and fourth in power play points (14).
Suzuki, drafted 13th overall by the Vegas Golden
Knights in 2017, should not be a surprise as a leading point scorer in his
rookie class. It is a quite productive
class so far, one that includes Colorado defenseman Cale Makar (second in this
rookie class in points with 43), New Jersey’s Nico Hischier, and Vancouver’s
Elias Pettersson among those first 13 overall picks in addition to Suzuki.
That Suzuki has been productive on the road has not translated
into much success for the Canadiens, though.
Ove his last 14 road games dating back to December 19th, he
is 5-12-17, but he is also has a minus-4 rating over those 14 games, and the
Canadiens are just 6-8-0 over that span.
Suzuki has a goal and an assist, and has a plus-1 rating in the two
games he has played against the Caps so far in his rookie season.
Phillip Danault is the third of the three 20-point skaters
on the road for the Canadiens so far this season. Danault actually has some roundabout history
with the Caps. You might remember that
the Capitals traded their 2001 first round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks for
forward Troy Brouwer. It was with that
pick that the Blackhawks took Danault.
And, there is another connection.
Danault was traded by the Blackhawks to the Canadiens in February 2016
with a 2018 second-round draft pick for Dale Weise and former Capital Tomas
Fleischmann.
In his four full seasons in Montreal, including this one,
Danault is the second-leading points getter (158 to 172 for Brendan Gallagher)
and first on the team in even strength points (142), and his plus-35 rating is
second over that period to Paul Byron’s plus-37. As for his road game record, he is in
something of a slump there at the moment.
Danault has gone his last 11 road games without a goal and has six
assists over that span, half of them coming in Montreal’s 4-1 win in
Philadelphia over the Flyers on January 16th. He recently had an injury scare, taking a
puck to the face on a shot from teammate Tomas Tatar in the second period of a
3-2 loss to Arizona on February 10th, but he did not miss any time,
returning to the ice two days later against Boston. Of his injury it was said, as only hockey can
spin as good news, “No fractures or concussion. Only lost teeth and cuts.” “Only.” This incident came just over two years after he was struck in the head by a
shot by Boston’s Zdeno Chara.
Danault is one of those skaters who have thrived with more
ice time, or at least the Canadiens have been successful when he had it. Montreal is 11-5-4 in the 20 games in which
he skated at least 20 minutes, 16-22-4 in the 42 games in which he skated less
than 20 minutes. Danault is 1-8-9,
plus-2, in nine career games against Washington.
1. Montreal has the
league’s best power play on the road (27.8 percent). In 16 road games since December 10th,
they are 14-for-41 (34.1 percent).
2. In that span of 16
road games since December 10th, eight different Canadiens have power
play goals, but Tomas Tatar (five) and Nick Suzuki (three) account for eight of
them. Six Canadiens have one apiece.
3. Montreal is one of
four teams in the league with a shot attempts differential at 5-on-5 of
plus-400 or more (plus-404). Los Angeles
(plus-0657), Toronto (plus-474), and Carolina (plus-471) are the others.
4. Montreal has
allowed four goals in each of their last four road games. Their 15 road games having allowed four or
more goals are topped only by Detroit (22), Anaheim (17), and Los Angeles (16).
5, The Canadiens are
one of four teams not to have been shutout this season. Tampa Bay, Toronto, and the New York Rangers
are the others.
1. Washington has the
best penalty kill on home ice this season (87.6 percent). They are 48-for-53 killing penalties in their
last 15 home games (90.6 percent).
2. The flip side of
that penalty kill is that over their last 15 home games, the Caps have been
shorthanded 3.53 times per game, most in the league, and have spent 6:18 in ice
time per game killing penalties, also most in the league.
3. The Caps have six
players with 20 or more points on home ice this season: John Carlson (30), Alex
Ovechkin (27), Jakub Vrana (25), Evgeny Kuznetsov (25), T.J. Oshie (23), and
Nicklas Backstrom (23). Next up could be
Tom Wilson (18).
4. The power play has
a certain imbalance on home ice. The
Caps have 17 power play goals scored at Capital One Arena, but 11 of them are
on the ledger of T.J. Oshie (six) and Alex Ovechkin (five). Six other Capitals have one apiece.
5. The Caps have allowed
five or more goals in four of their last eight home games.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Montreal: Shea Weber
News of injuries is hard to come by in the NHL, the manner
in which teams keep such information close to the vest rivaling the lengths to
which security agencies protect “top secret” information, it seems. But “The Shea Weber Saga” pushes the envelope
a bit further. Weber skated almost 25 minutes
in a 5-4 Gimmick win over New Jersey on February 4th, but he
suffered what was first described as a “lower body injury” and did not accompany the team for a game in Boston on February 12th.
The nature of the injury became equal parts more mysterious and more serious when
it was reported Weber’s injury would keep him out of the lineup for 4-6 weeks,
but then that his season was “likely over” and his career in jeopardy over what
was by this time identified as an ankle injury.
But then, miracle of miracles, it was then reported that he could return to action as soon as this past Tuesday against the Detroit Red Wings.
Weber did precisely that and skated
almost 22 minutes in a 4-3 loss to the Wings.
Weber has become injury prone since arriving in Montreal in
a blockbuster trade from Nashville for P.K. Subban in June 2016. After dressing for 78 of 82 regular season
games in 2016-2017 with Montreal, he appeared in just 26 games in 2017-2018
(foot injury) and just 58 games last season (knee surgery). It matters.
Despite being limited to 140 games over the past three seasons, he
remains a top-20 defensemen in points per game (0.59) among the 198 defensemen
to have dressed for at least 100 games in that span. Weber is 5-8-13, plus-2, in 19 career games
against Washington.
Washington: Nick Jensen
So, with the Caps having obtained defenseman Brenden Dillon
from San Jose on Tuesday, who will be the odd man out on the blue line for the
Capitals? It could be Jonas Siegenthaler,
who has barely a full season’s worth of regular season experience (84 games) on
his resume. But Siegenthaler averages
more shorthanded time on ice per game (3:06) on a club that is fourth in the
league in penalty killing.
The odd man out could be a defenseman who has struggled for
much of the season – Nick Jensen. Since
he came to the Capitals from Detroit with a fifth-round pick in the 2019 Entry
Draft for prospect defenseman Madison Bowey and a second-round pick in the 2020
Entry Draft, he has contributed little in offense (ten points, all of them
assists, in 78 games), is a team worst minus-3 among defensemen over that span,
is second worst among Caps defensemen in personal on-ice shot attempts-for
percentage at 5-on-5 (49.5 percent), and has the worst on-ice even strength goal
differential among defensemen for the Caps over that span (minus-6). An example of the frustration. Since he first took the ice for the Caps on
February 24, 2019, he is one of three NHL defensemen of 183 defensemen recording
at least 50 shots on goal to fail to light the red light (he is 0-for-81; Matt
Irwin is 0-for-54; and Anthony Bitetto is 0-for-52). Of relevance to this game, Jensen has one
point in his last 24 home games dating back to October 18th when
this slump started (an assist in a 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh on February 2nd). Jensen does not have a point and has a
minus-9 rating in 12 career games against Montreal.
In the end…
The Capitals are no longer the hunted. They lost their top spot in the league
standings, they lost their top spot in the conference standings, and now, they
trail the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Metropolitan Division standings. This is what happens when a team goes 11-11-0
over a 22-game stretch after holding a five-point lead on the rest of the
league after their first 37 games. And
it is not as if playing in front of the home folk have been an elixir. The Caps are 1-4-0 in their last five home
games and have lost ugly, giving up 23 goals, 16 of them in three losses to
divisional rivals (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and the Islanders). The Tuesday trade for defenseman Brenden
Dillon might be what the Caps need, personnel-wise and “shake things up”-wise,
but really, a veteran team like this should not require this sort of a wake up
call.
Capitals 4 – Canadiens 2