The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take the ice for the last of game of their five-game road trip and say goodbye to the mountain west for now when they take on the Arizona Coyotes on Friday night at Gila River Arena. The Caps will be looking for a win to cement a winning road trip, while the Coyotes will host the Caps as the last -place team in the league.
To think that Arizona had a four-game winning streak to open March is surprising in that since then they have a 4-14-2 record characterized by an inability to put pucks in the net (2.15 scoring offense over that stretch, last in the league). Over that 20-game stretch, Arizona has only one player with more than seven goals and none with as many as 20 points.
Nick Ritchie and Nick Schmaltz are the Coyotes with seven goals over the last 20 games. Ritchie is a former 10th overall draft pick, taken by the Anaheim Ducks in the 2014 Entry Draft but claim the Coyotes as his fourth NHL team in seven seasons, with stops in Boston and Toronto before arriving in Arizona with a second-round draft pick in a trade with Toronto for Ryan Dzingel and Ilya Lyubushkin. He has had difficulty living up being that high draft pick, topping off at 15 goals in 56 games with Boston in 2020-2021 and 31 points in 60 games with Anaheim in 2018-2019. He has never been an especially efficient shooter, going into this game with a career 9.9 shooting percentage, but that has been bolstered with 10-for-41 shooting (24.4 percent) since arriving in Arizona.
Since he arrived in Arizona, Ritchie has ten goals, but they hardly have made a dent in the Coyotes’ success, of lack of it, the team having a 3-5-1 record when Ritchie scored a goal. It is even worse when he posted at least one point, the Coyotes going 3-7-1 in those games. Odd Ritchie fact… eight of his ten goals with the Coyotes have come in games in which he skated fewer than 14 minutes. Ritchie has points in fur of his last nine games (2-2-4), but he also carries a minus-9 rating in those games. He is 4-1-5, minus-1, in 17 career games against the Capitals.
Nick Schmaltz is that other seven-goal scorer over Arizona’s 20-game slide. This Nick was also a first-round pick, Chicago taking him 20th overall in the same 2014 Entry Draft that yielded Nick Ritchie. He played for two years and change with the Blackhawks, going 29-62-91, plus-7, in 162 games before arriving in Arizona in trade for Brendan Perlini and Dylan Strome in November 2018. He has been a more productive player for Arizona (49-96-145, minus-5, in 197 games), and his production has tied closer to team success than has Ritchie’s. Arizona is 10-8-0 when he scored a goal, 14-15-2 when he recorded a point. Ice time seems to agree with Schmaltz, too. In 26 games in which he skated at least 18:14, he is 14-19-33, including a two-goal/seven-point game in an 8-5 win over the Ottawa Senators on March 5th (9-11-20 in 32 games he slated less).
In the midst of Arizona’s woes, Schamatz is also having a career year in scoring, his 23 goals bring a career best, his 31 assists being only three short of his career high (34 in 70 games with Arizona in 2019-2020), and his 54 points to date being a career high. And, he is that rare player with this year’s club with a positive plus-minus rating (plus-1), one of only four skaters among the 37 to dress for Arizona this season with a positive rating. Schmaltz is 1-1-2, minus-4, in seven career games against Washington.
Arizona has dressed 13 rookie skaters this season, none playing in more games than defenseman Dysin Mayo (67). He is yet another of that 2014 Entry Draft class making his way to Arizona. The differences here are that Mayo was drafted by the Coyotes, and he was not a first-round pick, but rather a fifth-rounder taken 133rd overall (one pick before the Caps took Shane Gersich, for those scoring at home). His trip to the NHL was, if long, conventional. Drafted out of the Edmonton Oil Kings’ organization in that 2014 draft, he played another three seasons with the Oil Kings before heading to the Springfield Falcons in the AHL for two seasons, albeit dressing for only five games in each season. After spending 25 games with the Rapid City Rush in the ECHL, he returned to the AHL in 2016-2017 with the Tucson Roadrunners, with whom he would play for five seasons through last year.
Mayo started his career with the Coyotes by scoring a goal in his first game, the only goal in a 5-1 loss to Edmonton on October 21st. he would go his next 23 games without a point despite averaging 20:48 in ice time per game over that stretch. He is a respectable 3-8-11 in his last 43 games, the 11 points ranking seventh among rookie defensemen over that period. What he is also carrying over that span, however, is a minus-20 rating, third worst among the 75 rookie defensemen skating over the same span of time. Mayo might be the closest thing to a good luck charm the Coyotes have had this season. They are 8-2-1 in games in which he had at least one point. Mayo is listed as day-to-day with an upper body injury. He went without a point and had an even rating in his only appearance against the Caps to date.
2. Arizona has a ghastly shots differential over their last 20 games, posting an average of 25.3 shots per game (last in the league over that span) and allowing 38.0 shots per game (most in the league).
3. The Caps will be facing the infrequent team with a worse faceoff winning percentage, 45.8 percent in their last 20 games, third worst in the league over that period.
4. Almost half of the Coyotes’ last 20 games have ended in losses by three or more goals (nine).
5. The Coyotes scored first only four times in their last 20 games (fewest in the league) and have a 1-3-0 record in those games.
1. Since January 1st, the Caps have scored first 16 times in 22 road games, tied with Toronto for the most instances scoring first. They are 11-2-3 in those games, their .688 winning percentage (11-2-3) ranking 16th. The six times they trailed first in games over that stretch are fewest in the league.
2. Washington has won nine times when taking a lead in the first periods of 22 road games since January 1st nine time, tied with Dallas for most in the league.
3. The 17 first period goals allowed in those 22 road games are tied with Vancouver for third-fewest in the league.
4. Washington has not had much success pilfering pucks. Their 5.35 takeaways over the 22 road games played since January 1st are the fourth-fewest in the league.
5. The Caps have eight empty net goals in 22 road games since January 1st. Only St. Louis (ten) and Colorado (nine) have more.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Coyotes: Karel Vejmelka
It is no picnic playing behind a team that struggles as much as the Coyotes. It makes one wonder just how good Karel Vejmelka is as a goaltender. His numbers are awful – 3.67 goals against average (second-worst among 42 goalies playing at least 1,500 minutes) and a .899 save percentage (34th in the same group). Of 41 goalies appearing in at least 30 games, he ranks 31st in even strength save percentage (.908) and 37th in save percentage against opponents’ power play (.842). However, he does have 12 wins, fifth-most among 32 rookie goalies to dress across the league this season, and his 2,647 minutes played rank second among rookie netminders. He is one of only nine rookie goalies among the 32 to play this season to have posted at least one shutout, a 1-0/46 save gem at Winnipeg on November 29th.
The season has worn on him in the front end and the back end, though. Vejmelka started the season 0-9-1, 3.29, .897 (two no-decisions) in his first 12 games. He comes into this game with an 0-4-1, 5.79, .855 record (one no-decision) in his last six appearances, allowing five or more goals four times. In between he was not awful – 12-18-1, 3.44, .907, with one shutout in 31 games. The high minutes load and the ghastly team in front of him seems to have taken a toll, and it remains to be seen if he is a better goalie than the team in front of him. Coyote fans will have to wait until next year for even a hint at the answer to that question. In his only appearance against the Caps to date, he stopped 30 of 31 shots in a 2-0 loss on October 29th.
Washington: Ilya Samsonov
The Washington goalie merry-go-round has moved to Ilya Samsonov to see if he can – finally – grab the number one goalie job by the throat and take it as his own. The early returns are not good. He has a fine win-loss record in April (4-1-1 in six appearances), but he has been more a passenger than a reliable anchor in net. Those four wins are tied for ninth among goalies in April, but among 46 goalies logging at least 200 minutes, he ranks 29th in goals against average (3.27) and 36th in save percentage (.885). He did win five straight decisions from March 18th through April 12th (one no-decision) and posted a respectable 2.74 goals against average, but in doing so his save percentage was .885.
Samsonov has a disturbing 23 games this season in which his save percentage was under .900. Only six goalies have more, none of them playing for a team that will reach the postseason. He has not posted consecutive games with a save percentage over .910 in the 2022 portion of the season, a span of 23 games. He does thrive in low shot volume games. In 11 games in which he started and finished the game and faced fewer than 25 shots, he is 9-2-0, 1.99, .902, with one shutout. He does well in high shot volume situations, too, going 9-3-3, 2.92, .919, with one shutout in 15 games in which he faced at least 30 shots. It is that nether region, the 25-29 shots faced range, that is strange, Samsonov stopping only 195 of 221 shots (.882 save percentage). He is 1-0-1, 1.46, .941, with one shutout in two career appearances against Arizona.
In the end…
If the Caps have any designs on overtaking Pittsburgh for third place in the Metro, who they trail by a tie-breaker at the moment, they cannot let down against a weak team, even on the road. The problem here, though, is that the Caps have won just twice in their last nine games in Arizona (2-5-2). It could make for an interesting, if unlikely challenge, the Coyotes seeming to have one team’s number in their own arena. Nevertheless, if the Caps show up with an honest effort, the competitive portion of this game could end early. If they don’t, then finishing with that second wild card sport going into the postseason would seem a virtual certainty.
Capitals 5 – Coyotes 2