Thursday, April 24, 2008

Your Conference Semifinal Prognostos...Montreal vs. Philadelphia











Much as we'd rather be doing this for the Capitals versus the Penguins, we'll have to settle for starting with the Eastern Conference semifinal...

Montreal Canadiens (1) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (6)

Season series:

Nov. 1: at Montreal 5 – Philadelphia 2
Dec. 13: Montreal 4 – at Philadelphia 1
Feb. 16: at Montreal 1 – Philadelphia 0
Feb. 17: Montreal 5 – at Philadelphia 3


This is the fifth time these franchises have met in the Stanley Cup tournament Once in the finals), and the Canadiens hold a 3-1 edge in the four series they’ve played. As these things go, this is the wannabe gold standard for hockey royalty versus the real thing. And that is not unlike the general character of this series – a team that aspires to be among the elite versus one that is. And that, if you haven’t figured it out is the Flyers playing the “wannabe” role, and the Canadiens as the club on whose perch the Flyers hope to sit.

Both teams come into this series having survived hard-fought series – one expected, one not. The Canadiens were expected to have an easier time with the Boston Bruins than was the case, and the problem there should be a bit unsettling for the Habs. Montreal scored 19 goals in a seven game series, which is respectable for this time of year. But they gave up 11 goals in their three losses – 10 of them in games five and six. And that brings us to the question, for all of his talent, does goaltender Carey Price have the steel and seasoning – at age 20 – to be the guy to carry this team deeper into the playoffs? How one answers that question answers the question of who will win this series.

As far as the season’s history between these two teams, the record – from Montreal’s perspective – reflects the 4-0 edge in games

Goals for/against: 15/6
Power play goals for/against: 6/3
Even-strength goals for/against: 8/2
Power play: 6/25 (24.0%)
Penalty killing: 20/23 (87.0%)
Record: one-goal games: 1-0-0
Record, 3+ goal games: 2-0-0

For the Flyers, the ominous statistic has to do with the power play, specifically the number of chances. Philadelphia was the most penalized team in the East this year, so the incidence of power plays is not surprising. But, if the Flyers thought that they would have problems with the Caps’ speed (they did), they will have that problem in depth with Montreal. They appeared to have that problem during the season. The Flyers took 27 minor penalties in four games. Of that number, 17 were of the “obstruction” variety (holding, holding the stick, interference, hooking, tripping). And, the Canadiens made the Flyers pay to the tune of six power play goals – as many as the Flyers has of all varieties of goal in the series. After a tough seven-game series against Washington, one wonders if the Flyers, especially among the defensemen (four of whom are 33 or older), have the legs to survive another tough series.

Looking at the top scorers for Montreal and their records in the season series:

Alex Kovalev: 2-4-6, +4
Tomas Plekanec: 0-3-3, +2
Mark Streit: 2-1-3, +2
Andrei Markov: 0-6-6, +3
Saku Koivu: 2-2-4, +1


This is, as the season series would suggest, a solid and balanced result. What the Canadiens might need, though, is some additional punch. Montreal had four players with 25 or more goals, two of whom do not appear on the list above. Guillaume Latendresse and Andrei Kostitsyn could be key to the Canadiens success on the offensive side of the ledger. Latendresse had one goal (his only point) in four games against the Flyers, Kostitsyn was 2-2-4 in his four games of work.

But, it is in goal where the key for the Canadiens lies. Carey Price was given the keys to the car by general manager Bob Gainey when the latter traded Cristobal Huet to the Capitals. He responded by going 12-3-0, 2.12, .936 after the trading deadline. Against the Flyers this year, he also posted a 3-0-0, 1.34, .961 record. But there is that Boston thing and the ten goals he gave up in games five and six with an opportunity to close out the series. If that was his “trial by fire,” one might conclude that he passed it with a 25-save whitewashing of the Bruins in game seven. Although, Montreal took a three goal lead into the third period of that game (winning 5-0), alleviating some of the pressure from his young shoulders. Price cannot suffer meltdowns in this series, as the Flyers showed themselves to be an opportunistic and resourceful team in their series with Washington. They can step through any such opening the Canadiens give them.

Speaking of the Flyers, their top scorers fared as follows against Montreal:

Mike Richards: 2-1-3, -2
Daniel Briere: 0-2-2, -3
Vaclav Prospal: 4-2-6, +2 (all with Tampa Bay)
Mike Knuble: 1-1-2, -2
Jeff Carter: 0-1-1, -2

It is not, as one might expect, a very good record. And, Knuble is injured, his status for this series uncertain. Complicating the situation further is the matter of Daniel Briere. He was 5-4-9, +5 in the first five games of the Washington series, but 1-1-2, -3 in games six and seven. He is also the hometown boy who didn’t sign with the hometown team when he had the chance last summer. He hasn’t had especially sterling numbers against Montreal in his career, either. Since the 2000-2001 season, he is 8-9-17, even in 24 games. He’ll have to be better for the Flyers to advance.

The Flyers will also need to get others to step up, most notably the other two members of the 20-goal brigade – Joffrey Lupul, the hero of game seven in the Washington series, and Scott Hartnell. Lupul was scoreless and -2 in three games against the Canadiens this year, while Hartnell was scoreless and -1 in four games. If they repeat that performance, the Flyers will be going no further. Odd thing about Hartnell’s performance this year and something to keep in mind. True, he is one of the seven 20-goal scorers the Flyers have on their squad, but seven of his 24 goals came against the Islanders. He has more than one goal this year against only two non-Atlantic Division opponents (Carolina, Ottawa).

In goal, can Martin Biron do it again? Fans had better hope that he plays more to the level he showed against Washington than he did in his lone appearance against Montreal this year – five goals on 41 shots on November 1st. He did what he had to do against Washington – give his team a chance. His statistics are not spectacular (2.67, .908) so far, but if plays at that level, he will give his team a chance.

Why Montreal will win…

They play to the Flyers’ vulnerabilities…their power play can make Philadelphia pay for their all-too-often indiscretions, and they can make Philadelphia’s defense uncomfortable with their speed and depth. While undertaking a seven-game ordeal with Boston, they come in as the somewhat more rested team (the Flyers played two overtime games among the last four, including the game seven, covering six days). Plus, they have considerable success this year against the Flyers to draw upon.

Why Philadelphia will win…

Carey Price is not impregnable. The Bruins demonstrated that. And, the Flyers will do to him what they did to Cristobal Huet in the Washington series…crowd him, crowd him again, then crowd him some more. Further, although the “Vengeance Now” has value only as marketing schtick for the Flyers front office, this club does play with a bit of a chip on its shoulder. That can’t hurt in a series where they will be a substantial underdog.

In the end…

Montreal is too deep, too fast, and too good on its power play, even if Price has the occasional rookie moments.

Montreal in six.

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