Monday, March 09, 2009

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Predators, March 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

On the road again
Just can't wait to get on the road again
The life I love is playin’ hockey with my friends
And I can't wait to get on the road again
On the road again
Winnin’ games in ways we’ve never won
Makin’ plays that we may never make again,
And I can't wait to get on the road again.

On the road again
Like a bunch of pee-wees we go down the highway
We're the best of friends
Insisting that the season be turnin' our way
And our way
Is on the road again
Just can't wait to get on the road again
The life I love is playin’ hockey with my friends
And I can't wait to get on the road again

On the road again
Like a bunch of pee-wees we go down the highway
We're the best of friends
Insisting that the season be turnin' our way
And our way
Is on the road again

Just can't wait to get on the road again
The life I love is playin’ hockey with my friends
And I can't wait to get on the road again
And I can't wait to get on the road again…


Sometimes, you just have to get on the road again. A different routine, away from the distractions and the duties of home life, where there is the hotel, meals, and the rink. Making things simple. And that might be a goal as the Caps embark on a road trip that begins in Music City, where there resides another desperate team that sits on the cusp of the playoff eight, the Nashville Predators.

This is a team that the Caps and Caps fans do not get to see often. And when they do, it is generally boring, if your excitement is defined in terms of offensive fireworks. The Caps are 5-5-1 all time against the Predators, having scored a total of 27 goals in those 11 games, only four times potting more than two in a game. The Predators have scored 31 in those 11 games. Neither team has won more than two in a row at any time in the series. The Caps hold a victory in the last game played between the clubs, a 4-2 win last March 18th in Nashville in which Alex Ovechkin reached the 100-point mark for the 2007-2008 season.

This year, the Predators are caught in the maelstrom of a playoff jumble that has eight teams separated by ten points (66 to 76 points on Monday evening), ranked 5th through 12th in the Western Conference. The Predators are smack dab in the middle of it, ranked eighth with 70 points. The 70 points is tied with Edmonton and Dallas.

Nashville is not a team that is going to excite folks based on their offensive abilities. But as their overall 2008-2009 numbers suggest, they do have a formula for winning games…




…that formula is to play things tight, get a lead, and choke the life out of opponents. The getting a lead part is fundamental to the Predators’ fortunes. No team in the league has a better record than does Nashville when taking a lead into the first intermission (15-0-1). On the other hand, if Nashville trails at the first intermission, well… only six teams have a lower winning percentage, and none of them are currently playoff eligible.

The Predators had a gruesome start to the 2009 portion of the year – 4-8-0 in January – but they have come on since February 1st. Since then, the Predators are 12-5-1 and just had a six-game winning streak ended with a 4-1 loss to the Flyers on Saturday. That they would find themselves in the playoff mix despite finding themselves 14th in the West on February 3rd is astonishing. They found success by rediscovering what made them successful. Whereas in January they allowed three of more goals in eight of 12 games (losing six of them), they allowed three or more in only seven of the 19 games they’ve played since February 1st (3-4-0 in such games).

What accounts for the turnaround? Well, it might start in goal, where Pekka Rinne has taken hold of the number one goaltender position. Rinne, who came into this season having only three NHL games on his resume (oddly enough, all of them against Chicago), is 11-3-1 since February 1st with a 2.10 GAA, a .930 save percentage, and two shutouts (one of them against Detroit).

Rinne has some history here of a different nature. He was the goalie for the Milwaukee Admirals in the Calder Cup finals of 2006, when the Hershey Bears’ under Bruce Boudreau took home the trophy. It was not a pleasant experience. Rinne was the goaltender of record in all six games of a 4-2 series win for the Bears. He was pulled in the first period in two of the last three games and had overall marks of 4.25, .852, despite pitching a shutout in game three of that series. He seems to have done better since that misfortune.

This is a team of odd names and offensively-challenged players. You’ll not find many teams with names such as Fiddler (Vernon), Erat (Martin), Bonk (Radek), and Tootoo (Jordan), which sound like characters from the end of the credits of a Star Wars movie. And while you’ll find that both the Predators and the Capitals each have four players with more than 40 points, you’ll find that the Caps’ four players also have more than 50 points, whereas the Predators have but one with more than that number – Jean-Pierre Dumont (12-39-51).

In a way, this Predators team is a faint echo of the Capitals teams, circa 1990, when they got a lot of scoring from the blue line. The 1990-1991 Caps team was led in scoring by defenseman Kevin Hatcher and had defensemen Calle Johansson and Al Iafrate (an in-season addition that year) in the top ten in team scoring. Two years later, the Caps would have three defensemen with at least 50 points. This Predators team has three defensemen among the top ten in team scoring – Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, and Dan Hamhuis. Hamhuis is the oldest of the trio at 26. None of this should be surprising, given that the common thread between the teams is former Caps GM and current Predators GM David Poile – the architect of those clubs representing the two franchises.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Nashville: Steve Sullivan

Sullivan missed 153 games spanning parts of three seasons (including 40 this season) with back problems that eventually required two rounds of surgery. He took the ice for the first time this season on January 10th, but didn’t register his first goal of the season until February 18th in a 6-2 loss to Detroit. Starting with that game, though, Sullivan is 7-5-12, +8 in nine games (he does not have a minus game in the bunch). Sullivan is a great story of a little guy (5’9”, 155) fighting long odds to play in, then return to the NHL after a serious injury. In 13 career games against the Caps, Sullivan is 6-5-11, -2, with three power play goals and two game-winners. He has not faced the Caps, however, since netting a pair of goals in a 5-2 win over Washington in December 2005. How long ago is that? Well, in that game, Alex Ovechkin got a goal (some things don’t change), assisted by Andrew Cassels and Jamie Heward. The other goal was scored by Ben Clymer.

Washington: Jose Theodore

On the road, things get tighter, and against the Predators – given their style – they promise to shrink another size around the collar. Theodore is 2-4-1 in his last seven decisions. That record, along with the accompanying 3.45 GAA and .890 save percentage, have to improve quickly for the Caps to have a successful spring. Nashville is not necessarily the team against which those numbers will improve. Theodore has a 3-3-0 career record against the Predators (2.81, .905), but he is winless in his last three appearances against the Predators (0-2-0, 3.45, .890).

This is a game likely to be dictated by defense. Nashville is 25-6-1 in games they score more than two goals, and they are fourth in the league in one-goal game winning percentage (16-7-4/.593). Oddly, perhaps, the Capitals have played in more one-goal games than have the Predators (16-7-6/.552, 11th in the league). It argues for a tight, low-scoring game against a team that is resurgent, desperate, and out of the West – the trifecta of trouble for the Caps this year. Hey, it’s a challenge…

Caps 3 – Predators 2

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