The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, November 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And the Capitals are set to take on Carolina in the front end of a three-game road trip. Hurricane season might be over, but the Hurricanes are blowin’ pretty strong down here. And who better to get the latest on the Hurricanes from than hurricane expert and hockey fan, Remy Day.

Rainy…we’re glad you could join us…

“Remy…it’s Remy…Ray-Mee…why does everyone call me ‘Rainy?’”

Just a weather joke to break the ice…

“So, you’re a comedian AND a prognosticator?...what, you don’t have a day job??”

That’s a pretty stormy attitude…

“Can we PLEASE knock off the weather jokes?”

OK, so…the Hurricanes. You’ve been tracking them all season…

“…ugh…”

Why are they off to such a scorching start?

“Well, leading the league in scoring with 3.79 goals a game doesn’t hurt, and they’re even a little better at home with 3.83 a game. And, they’re really dominating at even strength. They lead the league in 5-on-5 efficiency. They’ve scored more than twice as many goals at 5-on-5 than they’ve allowed – the only team in the league that can say that.”

How are their special teams?

“Hot and cold….geez, now you have me doing it.”

Give in to it…you know you want to…

“The power play is hotter than Phoenix in July….24.7 percent success is second in the league.”

What do you attribute that to?

“Global warming…no, seriously, they really spread things around…nine guys have power play goals so far…”

Geez, the Caps only have five with goals, and only two with more than one.

“That’s right…the Hurricanes have 19 power play goals to ten for your guys…if the Caps are short handed…scoring warnings will be posted up and down the Eastern Seaboard.”

You said they were hot and cold on special teams…

“Yeah, well…the penalty kill is colder than International Falls in January…73.2 percent success is 28^th in the league…worse than the Caps, if you can believe that. If you compare the two special team squads, it’s almost a wash…”

What do you mean?

“The Hurricanes have scored those 19 power play goals, but they’ve given up…yup…19 power play goals, and they’ve given up a shorty, too.”

Who should we be watching for the Hurricanes, tonight?

“Well, Rod Brind’Amour, of course. Not only is he a Cap-killer – he’s 36-38-74 in 87 career games against the Caps – he’s 5-4-9, +5 in his last five games…and there’s Justin Williams…he always seems to find a way to get onto the scoresheet against the Caps, 13-16-29 in 32 games against Washington.”

The Hurricanes have scored 27 goals in those last five games…who else is coming in hot?

“Matt Cullen is 1-7-8, and Eric Staal is 3-4-7. But one of the most underrated guys in the league – Ray Whitney – is coming in 5-3-8, +4 in his last five games. The big guys are all on a hot streak right now.”

Well, Rainy…

“Remy…RAY-mee…it that so hard?”

Remy…it’s always a surge of excitement when you stop by…

“yeah…it’s been a category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale for me, too.”

As for the Caps, this probably isn’t the sort of game they’d have picked to start a road trip…or maybe it is. They shut out the Hurricanes in their only meeting so far this year, they generally play Carolina even in Raleigh (3-4-1 in their last eight games there), Olaf Kolzig has had a large measure of success against the Hurricanes over his career – 25-11-8-1, 2.16, .926.

If you’re looking for hot Caps, Alex Ovechkin is always the place to start the search. He’s been hot, and he has had success against this club. He’s 11-8-19 in 17 career games against Carolina, and he comes in to tonight’s contest 4-3-7 in his last five games. You’d also think Michael Nylander would be a guy to watch…9-14-23 in 25 games against Carolina, and he’s 2-5-7 in his last five. The problem for the Caps will be the players likely to be out for this one…Chris Clark is 8-6-14 in 19 career games against the Hurricanes, and Alexander Semin is 8-7-16 in 14 career games against Carolina. If you’re looking for perhaps an odd player to crack the scoresheet for the Caps tonight, watch for Donald Brashear…he’s 2-7-9 in 40 career games against Carolina.

Tonight, though, the magic number for the Caps is this…five.

The Caps are 4-1-0 when allowing the opponent fewer than five power play opportunities (killing 94.4 percent of their shorthanded situations in such games). They are 1-7-0 when giving up five or more (killing 75.5 percent). The Caps would still have to contend with Carolina’s formidable even-strength record of success so far this year, but they can’t make it easier for the Hurricanes by chasing them around killing penalties all night, either.

So…can the Caps play a disciplined game and escape with a win? Well, the Caps have been shorthanded five or more times in 15 of the last 17 games played against Carolina. But, they were only on the short end three times the last time these two teams met, and the result was a 2-0 shutout (the only time the Hurricanes have been shut out this year). It’s certainly in them to do it.

And do it they will…a combination of that and Kolzig’s history of success here will (as you’ve probably guessed) result in a close win for the Caps…

Caps 3 – Hurricanes 2.