Wednesday, January 09, 2008

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Avalanche, January 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Iowa, Schmyoah…Obama, Schmobama…Hillary, Schmillary…Huckabee, Schmuckabee...there is one, and only one issue on the minds of the public…

WHERE IS ALEX GOING?

We have a new entry in the sweepstakes…Nashville.*

The Peerless has invited the cream of the punditocracy take a break from mundane election matters to prognosticate on the important issue of where Alex will be playing next year.

George Will: "Well, the great American essayist H. L. Mencken said that, ‘it is even harder for the average ape to believe that he has descended from man,’ and to think that Ovechkin is going to play anywhere but in Washington is to lend credence to Mencken’s sentiment.”

Bill O’Reilly: "George, where do you find these quotes?”

GW: “Most of them, I just make up…it’s not like any of you people do any fact checking.”

BO’R: “Well look…as usual, you point headed types just over-think and over-complicate and over-do these kinds of things…follow the money. Ovechkin is going to end up with whatever team offers him the most money, and if you think otherwise, you’re probably a namby-pamby bleeding heart Clinton lover.”

Keith Olbermann: “You…you…you IDIOT! You and your cabal of conservative conspiracists! Always the money. You’d think all this fine young man was about was the money. He’s going to play in Canada…you conservatives won’t rest until you’ve driven him out. You’ve made this country a mess, and of course…Ovechkin is – wink wink – 'Russian.' You guys are still fighting the Cold War, and…”

George Stephanopoulos: “Keith, calm down, you’re makeup is going to melt. We all know that Ovechkin is going to consider all the offers that come his way, but being a good son, he’ll do what Mama – who is acting as his agent – thinks best. And then he’ll end up playing in Washington, unless he doesn’t.”

GW: “George, have you ever taken a position on anything?”

GS: “I take many positions, George, sometimes on the same issue. It’s called ‘having an open mind.'”

BO’R: “Typical wishy-washy liberal crap.”

KO: “Why don’t you take your size-14 feet and CRAM THEM UP YOUR TIGHT –

GS: “guys, guys…let’s be civil.”

GW: "Mencken said it best…'Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats.'”

BO’R: “you get a two-for-one coupon at Borders for a Mencken collection, George?”

GS: “can we get back to the subject…”

BO’R: “shut up, ya dwarf…”

KO: “Pick on somebody your own size, Jethro…”

GW: “The writer Elliott Hubbard once said, ‘If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost; you can still call him vile names.’”

[all]: “SHUT UP!!!”

We’ll let the boys continue their fun…we have a game tonight. Colorado comes into this game with virtually an identical record (22-17-3) to that which they had on this date last year (21-18-2). The difference is that while last year they came into January 9th riding a three game winning streak, they will enter tonight’s game as losers of five of their last six, including a 1-0 loss to their archrival Red Wings in Detroit last night. While the Avalanche has lost two games in this stretch to the Red Wings, they’ve also lost three to Phoenix (twice, once in overtime) and Los Angeles, both clubs behind Colorado in the standings. Here are the particulars about Colorado’s performance during this slump:

Record: 1-4-1
Goals for/against: 10-18
Power play: 0-17 (0.0 percent)
Penalty killing: 13-17 (76.5 percent)

That power play is giving the Avalanche fits. They are three for their last 44 chances (6.8 percent) since going three-for-six in a 9-5 win against St. Louis on December 9th. In fact, since that night, the Avalanche light has gone out on offense. 28 goals in their last 14 games.

Part of the drought is having lost Joe Sakic to surgery for a sports hernia (last played on November 30th) and Ryan Smyth to a fractured ankle (last played on December 31st). But there are other factors at play, too:

Paul Stastny, who started the season like a house a’fire (15-26-41, +14 in his first 33 games), is 0-3-3, -5 in his last nine games.

Milan Hejduk is without a point and a -5 in his last seven games.

Andrew Brunette is 0-2-2, -1 in his last six.

…these are the top three active scorers for the Avs this season.

Jose Theodore has manned the nets for the last two games, and while he’s had a lackluster season so far (8-9-1, 2.68, .895), he’s done his part in these two games, stopping 47 of 49 shots and splitting the two decisions. Since Theodore played last night in the 1-0 loss in Detroit, it is entirely likely that Peter Budaj will get the nod tonight. Budaj has slightly better numbers than Theodore in the goals against and save percentage departments (2.63, .901), but he does have a better win-loss record (14-8-2). As if a mirror image to Theodore’s play of late, Budaj is 0-2-1 in his last three decisions, with a 2.97 GAA and .892 save percentage.

The Caps are banged up. Colorado probably has bigger guns out in Sakic and Smyth, but the Caps make up for it in quantity. Goaltender Brent Johnson is nursing a knee injury, defensemen Tom Poti and Brian Pothier are both dealing with the dreaded “upper body injury, Alexander Semin has a dented butt, and Chris Clark has a groin injury. Michael Nylander is not healthy, either.

The Caps are 4-1-1 in their last six outings, but it will be tough to add to that in light of the medical reports. They’ve been doing it by racing up and down the ice, outscoring opponents 25-21 (the loss in regulation coming in the game where they didn’t score any goals, a 2-0 loss to Boston).

When healthy (or at least not in a slump such as that in which they now find themselves), Colorado is a club that can keep up – they are tied with the Caps and the Penguins in goals-per-game (2.79), but they’ve been better in keeping the puck out of the net (2.81 goals-against-per-game to 3.01 for the Caps). It might be another of those high-scoring contests the Caps have had lately, which means…

Caps 5 – Avalanche 4


* Thanks to Hooks Orpik at The Sweater Ted for pointing that out to us (even if it was a link to Eklund)…TST is a Penguins blog, but unlike the usual article of this specie, it’s a good one. You should check it out.

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