The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
And it’s the second half of a back-to-back tonight, this time a visit to The City of Brotherly Love to take on the Philadelphia Flyers.
Brotherly love…from the greek, “philos” (love) and “adelphos” (brotherly). It is a town that has a peculiar affection for two-word terms…cheese steak...water ice…soft pretzels…losing teams…bad attitude…goofy curse.
Goofy curse, you ask? Was The Curse of the Bambino goofy? Philly has Boston beat, though. They have a curse that has consumed all four pro sports teams – the Eagles, Phillies, 76ers, and of course…the Flyers.
It is The Curse of Billy Penn. For those of you not familiar with this ne plus ultra of sports curses, it has to do with City Hall, the statue of William Penn that stands atop it, and the place of that statue in the Philadelphia skyline and local sports. Until the mid-1980’s, the statue of William Penn stood taller than did any building in the city. Then someone thought it would be a good idea to build not one, but two buildings taller than Penn…and not by a little bit, but by almost 400 feet.
Since One Liberty Place rose to cast City Hall in a shadow a few blocks away, the city has been shut out of titles. The last title won by any of the major sports was by the Sixers in 1983. Since then, it’s the big oh-fer. And for the Flyers, it is 32 years and counting. The last time the Flyers won a title, in 1975…
- Olaf Kolzig was five years old
- Gary Bettman was a year out of Cornell University
- Wayne Gretzky hadn’t yet scored a point in the NHL
- The song of the year was “Love Will Keep Us Together,” by The Captain and Tenille
- The cost of a first-class postage stamp was ten cents
- Apollo and Soyuz would not rendezvous in space for another couple of months
- A couple of guys named Wozniak and Jobs started tinkering with ideas for a gadget that would be named after a fruit
- Saturday Night Live had not yet aired an episode
- We hadn’t yet seen the wars between Betamax and VHS
- Wheel of Fortune premiered on NBC
- David Letterman left Indiana for Los Angeles with hopes of being a comedy writer (“Good Times” would be a show on his resume)
- Robert E. Lee was pardoned by Gerald R. Ford
- Bill Clinton had not yet married Hillary Rodham (not until October)
- The lake freighter Edmund Fitzgerald hadn’t yet found its resting place at the bottom of Lake Superior (that was in November)
- Queen hadn’t released “A Night at the Opera” yet (again, November)
- A young whipper-snapper named Gates was yet to use the term “Micro-Soft” for the first time; he’d do that later in the year in a letter to Paul Allen
It’s been a while.
But the Flyers are back in their accustomed place, this year, of hobnobbing with the leaders in the Eastern Conference. Their record of 30-17-5 (they defeated Atlanta last night, 3-2) is a 32 point improvement over their 52-game record last year (13-32-7).
Since going 0-4-2 in mid-December, the Flyers are on a tear: 14-3-1 in their last 18 games. Their numbers are rather on the scary side as well…
Record: 14-3-1
Goals for/against: 63/44
Power play: 24/87 (27.6%)
Penalty killing: 64/79 (81.0%)
The penalty killing number is skewed by a ghastly effort against the Devils on January 22nd, when the Flyers gave up five goals in eight chances. If Philly gets a mulligan for that one, they are at 83.1 percent for the other 16 games, a more respectable figure.
Eighteen different skaters have those 63 goals, led by…Scott Hartnell. That’s right, Scott Hartnell, who is 12-8-20, +7 over the last 17 games. Not far behind is Mike Knuble (10-4-14, +2), and Jeff Carter (6-7-13, +6). Mike Richards (4-13-17, +1) and Daniel Briere (5-10-15, -6) have chipped in a bushel of helpers in the process.
Briere is an odd case. Among players having played at least 40 games, “Britney” (“spears?”…play on “Briere?”…ok, it’s a stretch) is tied for eighth worst plus-minus in the league, which is rather noteworthy on a team where only four such players having played at least 40 games are in the minus category (this doesn’t count Rory “Hanging Chad” Fitzpatrick, who is -12 in 19 games). At this point in the season, it’s nice for Flyer fans that Briere has 28 power play points (fourth in the league), but -16 probably wasn’t part of the script.
And speaking of power plays, that 27.6 percent number is better than their season average (24.8 percent), but not extraordinarily so. The key? Briere, Knuble, Mike Richards, and Kimmo Timmonen. Among them, they are a combined 33-68-101 with the man advantage. And avoiding their wrath has been a rare thing. Only three times in the last 14 games have the Flyers been held without a power play tally. They are 1-2-0 in those games, and their win came via a 1-0 shutout of Florida.
We're guessing the power play will be important.
Which brings us to the goalies. Martin Biron is 7-1-0 in 10 appearances during this 14-3-1 run. His 2.19 GAA and .926 save percentage have been excellent. He’s stopped his last 44 shots covering portions of three games. On the other hand, Antero Niittymaki has been just about as good in his ten appearances: 7-2-1, 2.69, .922. The difference is that Niittymaki has faced a whopping 34.6 shots-per-60 minutes, accounting for the higher GAA.
For both clubs, it is the back end of a back-to-back set. Brent Johnson and Niittymaki played last night for the Caps and Flyers, respectively. So, it would seem that we’ll see Olaf Kolzig and Biron tonight. The career numbers against the opponent would appear to favor Biron (10-6-1-1, 2.63, .909) ever so slightly over Kolzig (13-19-3-0, 2.73, .908). But if we’re looking at career numbers, Alex Ovechkin is 11-9-20, +4, in 11 career games against the Flyers. Since Ovechkin is also on quite a run of his own (20-11-31, +11 in 18 games since Christmas), this could be quite a matchup.
Philly’s hot, their scorers are scoring, their goalies are tending goal, and the game is in their barn. So…
Caps 4 – Flyers 3
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