Round two.
Only twice in the history of the Capitals franchise has the club cleared this hurdle – in 1990, when they met the Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference finals (losing in a four-game sweep) and in 1998, when the Caps reached the Stanley Cup finals (losing to the Detroit Red Wings in, yes, a four-game sweep).
And now, the Caps seek to improve upon this sparse record in the rarefied air of the Stanley Cup playoffs by facing their long-time nemesis, the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins, as any Caps fan has imprinted in their DNA, have faced the Caps seven times, winning six times. This will be only the second time, however, that the teams have met later than the opening round. Which brings us to…
The History In Numbers
The Penguins have dominated the Caps in the playoffs to the tune of a 26-16 record in games and have outscored the Caps, 137-121 (3.26-2.88) in doing so. But what is so galling to Caps fans who have endured this history is the inability on the part of the Caps to win close games:
16 games have been decided by one goal in this series, and 12 times the Penguins have come out on the long end of the score. That includes a 5-1 Penguins advantage in overtime games.
The Caps’ frustration is only multiplied when you consider the records of the teams in the individual games of the series:
That the Caps have won only once in 14 tries in games five, six, and seven in this series is as plain as it gets in terms of illustrating the inability of the Caps to close out the Penguins. It doesn’t take a degree in physics from MIT to figure out that the Caps have to have much more of a killer instinct about the Penguins than have any of their predecessors (save for 1994).
The History – This Year
After falling behind, 3-0, in the first meeting of the year in Pittsburgh, the Caps came back to win that game and two others before falling in a Gimmick in the last meeting of the year…
The special teams for the two were productive overall, but the comparison is deceptive. After scoring on three of their first four power plays in that first game, the Penguins went 3-for-20 afterward. The Caps, unsuccessful in four attempts in that first game and their first four opportunities in the second game of the year between the teams, finished up with five goals in their last nine power play opportunities...
And now…
If ever there were two teams that were mirror images of themselves in a playoff series, these two teams fill the bill. Young, highly skilled at the forward position, with underrated defenses that still have question marks, coaches who came through the AHL route to the NHL and replaced coaches in mid-stream – these teams are running on parallel tracks. How do they match up when we break it down, though?
Five on five…
On April 5th, we noted a disturbing trend in the Caps’ five-on-five play…
The Caps remained at that 1.10 ratio of goals scored at five-on-five to goals allowed, and their ranking climbed to eighth. But the Penguins are the superior team in this statistic, finishing sixth at 1.18. In fact, the Penguins tied for third in the league in goals scored at five-on-five (167) and scored 65 percent of their goal total in such situations. On the other hand, the Caps have scored 58 percent of their 268 total goals this year at five-on-five (155 goals). On this basis, the Penguins appear to have a slight advantage, making better use of their even and full strength situations.
Capitals Power Play versus Penguin Penalty Kill…
The Caps finished second in the NHL in power play efficiency (25.2 percent). However, they finished 19th in the league in power play opportunities (337 – 4.11/game). Confoundingly enough, the Caps finished the season with a more efficient power play than their season average, scoring on 20 of their last 72 opportunities (27.8 percent) from March 1st on. But they enjoyed even fewer opportunities on a per-game basis (3.79/game). As formidable as the Caps power play is, the question here is whether they draw enough penalties to make full use of that aspect of their arsenal.
On the other hand, the Penguins had a more than respectable power play, finishing the year eighth in efficiency (82.7 percent), although they got more practice at it than they might otherwise like, finishing with the 12th most shorthanded situations faced (347 – 4.23/game). Perhaps surprisingly, the coaching change from Michel Therrien to Dan Bylsma had the result of Pittsburgh killing off a larger percentage of shorthanded situations (87.4 percent) than their season average, yet faced more shorthanded situations per game than their season average (4.44/game).
The key number here might be “five.” If the Caps can force the Penguins to skate shorthanded five or more times a game, their efficiency on the power play could offset the advantage the Penguins enjoy at five-on-five.
Penguin Power Play versus Capitals Penalty Kill...
There is perhaps no greater mystery this year than the lack of efficiency – given their talent – of the Penguins power play. Pittsburgh finished 20th in the league in power play efficiency (17.2 percent), worse than any playoff team in the East except the Rangers. After the coaching change, the Penguins didn’t force significantly more chances (4.48 per game), although they did improve on their season efficiency (19.6 percent).
On the other hand, the Capitals’ penalty kill finished 17th in the league and sixth among eight playoff teams in the East (80.6 percent). As much as the percentage of shorthanded situations killed off (which could use improvement), there was the matter of the sheer volume of such situations faced. The Caps finished the year with the third highest number of shorthanded situations faced in the league and the second most among all 16 playoff teams. Killing only one-in -five penalties, plus facing almost five shorthanded situations a game (4.72, actually)…the math isn’t difficult – a power play goal allowed per game, which places much more pressure on the Caps’ defense and their goaltending at even strength.
The Caps, however, improved on these numbers down the stretch, killing off 85.5 percent of the 76 shorthanded situations they faced (4.00/game). They will need to put up numbers at least that good to give themselves the best chance to advance. If the Penguins find their stride on their power play and the Caps continue to put themselves shorthanded at rates approaching that of the regular season, this series won’t last long.
Goaltending…
There is no bigger wild card in this series than this. There is no bigger problem in predicting an outcome than trying to figure out if Semyon Varlamov’s performance against the Rangers in the first round was, as the comparison of preference goes, ‘Cam Ward-like,” or if it was the product of the ineptitude of the Rangers’ offense. Varlamov will face a deep, talented, experienced challenge in the Penguins.
More to the point, what Varlamov will face is shots. In the first round, he faced a total of 145 shots in six games (24.2/game). Pittsburgh launched their 145th shot at Flyers’ goalie Martin Biron in the first round at 12:25 of the first period of game 5. The Rangers managed to exceed 25 shots only twice in six games against Varlamov. The Penguins exceeded that total in all six games against the Flyers. And this is without even considering that the Penguins have arguably half at least three players (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Bill Guerin) who are better finishers than any player on the Rangers’ roster.
On the other hand, there is a more subtle variability that lurks in the history of Varlamov’s opposite number, Marc-Andre Fleury. The young Penguin netminder has backstopped a team in a Stanley Cup final. The thing is, though, Fleury had (to be charitable about it) an awful record in playoff series settings before last year…13-24, 3.62, .886, dating back to his days at Cape Breton. He’d won only two series in his playoff career — none as a professional. And going into last year, Fleury could be said to be only going along for the ride with skaters who were much more talented and accomplished at their positions than he was at his. But he came up big, to his credit. But, is that a change due to experience, or an aberration? Based on his first round performance (2.39, .922 in six games against a formidable offense), you’d have to think that it is experience making him a better post season performer. But then again, he was 1-3-0, 4.73, .862 against the Caps this year.
On its face, one would have to conclude that the Penguins’ biggest advantage in this series is in goal, a product of Varlamov’s lack of experience. But in that is also the biggest upside potential for the Caps. Varlamov has been a successful performer in post season and tournament play, albeit playing in and for Russia, not in the NHL (or the AHL, for that matter). He hasn’t cracked yet, though.
The Coaches…
While Bruce Boudreau for the Caps and Dan Bylsma for the Penguins look to have come from different worlds – Boudreau the old school coach who spent a lot of time riding buses in the minors honing his craft, Bylsma with the look of a college professor who hadn’t completed so much as his first season in the AHL before assuming the head coaching job in Pittsburgh – both coaches were plucked out of the AHL to take over underperforming teams, and both oversee teams given to aggressive forechecking and offensive pressure. One might have thought that Boudreau, by virtue of his superior experience in a head coaching role, would clearly have the upper hand in this matchup, but Bylsma has pushed all the right buttons (or perhaps more accurately, pushed fewer of them than his predecessor, Michel Therrien) in guiding the Penguins to a 22-5-4 mark since taking over the reins. If a mistake is going to be made behind the bench, we’re thinking Bylsma is still more likely to make it, but he hasn’t made many so far.
The Players – Sidgeni Malksby vs. Alex Ovechkin...
Do two Penguins beat an indomitable Russian? Naturally, if you sum the goals, assists, and points for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, they will far exceed those of Ovechkin (91-132-223 to 56-54-110). But Ovechkin has almost as many power play goals (19) as “Malksby” (21), more game-winning goals (10) than Malksby (7), almost as many overtime goals (two versus three for the pair of Penguins), had fewer penalty minutes (72) than either of them (80 for Malkin, 76 for Crosby), and has far more hits (243) than the pair (160). Malkin, on the other hand, has far more takeaways (94) than does Ovechkin (60), even without adding Crosby (56). The danger for the Caps here is that they are so “Ovechkin-centric.” It’s easier to shut down one superstar than it is to shut down two. Ovechkin has to have a better series than he had against the Rangers, even if his totals (3-4-7, +5) were hardly those of a slug.
The Players – The Supporting Cast...
If Crosby and Malkin outnumber Ovechkin at the top of the talent pyramid, the Capitals might have the advantage at the next level. The Penguins don’t really have a “next wave” set of players to match Alexander Semin or Nicklas Backstrom. Semin has become something of a playoff warrior. He is 8-8-16, +7 in 14 career playoff games, with two game-winning goals among the seven wins the Caps have last year and this. Backstrom might be the key here, though, for the Caps. In eight career games, he has 13 assists. If he’s putting up similar numbers in this series, the Penguins will be in a world of trouble.
As you descend through the lines, the Penguins appear to have more scoring depth (11 players with at least 30 points, while the Caps have eight, if you don’t count Michael Nylander). But it might be a player who has far fewer than 30 points for the Caps who could be a key here. Chris Clark has only six points in 32 games this year and has played only one game since January 27th (game 7 against the Rangers). But he plays with the sort of energy that could raise the level of play of bring some underachievers – most notably Eric Fehr (two goals since March 1st) and Tomas Fleischmann (3-4-7 in 26 games since March 1st).
The Defense...
These two teams don’t get enough respect for the defensemen they employ. They are very similar in many respects. For a Mike Green, a gifted offensive defenseman with occasional problems in his own end, there is a Sergei Gonchar, whose profile was much the same as a Cap, even if he perhaps makes fewer mistakes at this point in his career than when he patrolled the Washington blue line. For a Hal Gill, a defense-first defenseman with considerable size and whose mobility might be a bit underrated, there is a John Erskine for the Caps, who had something of a coming out party against the Rangers in the first round – a solid defensive effort. For a Rob Scuderi – a very underrated, underappreciated defenseman – for the Penguins, there is a Shaone Morrisonn, who battled back from an indifferent first half of the season to close strong and lead all Caps defensemen in the first round with a plus-5 mark. The thing to watch here is perhaps which of the teams’ defensemen crack under forechecking pressure. Both clubs are vulnerable to such abuse. We’d rate them even, though.
The Intangibles…
The history of this series is just that, history. It means more to fans for purposes of Penguin smack talk and Capital anxiety than it will to any player on the ice. The only player on either team who has experience in a Caps-Penguins playoff series is Sergei Gonchar, and he’s playing for the team he faced in those battles.
After that, there is the real matter of experience, which the Penguins have in this setting and the Caps do not. There is no substitute for experience, and going to a Stanley Cup final qualifies. The Penguins will have the advantage, especially if they fall behind – they can call upon their acquired knowledge that a seven game series can be a long journey and that falling behind a game or two does not spell doom.
For the Caps, they have the experience of having twice fought back from 3-1 deficits in playoff series, losing their first and winning the next. They will always have the “puncher’s” chance that comes with an offense that might be one of the few in the league more explosive than the Penguins’.
In the end…
The Capitals cannot fall behind 2-0 at home the way they did in the opening round. Pittsburgh knows how to close a team out. On the other hand, if the Caps go up 2-0, they have the comfort of knowing that they can win in Mellon Arena, having won in their last three visits to Pittsburgh. Washington has not yet lost in regulation to Dan Bylsma (1-0-1). That should be a source of confidence. If they can get at least a solid performance out of Semyon Varlamov, they have the depth – past the superstar comparison – to advance.
Washington in 6
Only twice in the history of the Capitals franchise has the club cleared this hurdle – in 1990, when they met the Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference finals (losing in a four-game sweep) and in 1998, when the Caps reached the Stanley Cup finals (losing to the Detroit Red Wings in, yes, a four-game sweep).
And now, the Caps seek to improve upon this sparse record in the rarefied air of the Stanley Cup playoffs by facing their long-time nemesis, the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins, as any Caps fan has imprinted in their DNA, have faced the Caps seven times, winning six times. This will be only the second time, however, that the teams have met later than the opening round. Which brings us to…
The History In Numbers
The Penguins have dominated the Caps in the playoffs to the tune of a 26-16 record in games and have outscored the Caps, 137-121 (3.26-2.88) in doing so. But what is so galling to Caps fans who have endured this history is the inability on the part of the Caps to win close games:
16 games have been decided by one goal in this series, and 12 times the Penguins have come out on the long end of the score. That includes a 5-1 Penguins advantage in overtime games.
The Caps’ frustration is only multiplied when you consider the records of the teams in the individual games of the series:
That the Caps have won only once in 14 tries in games five, six, and seven in this series is as plain as it gets in terms of illustrating the inability of the Caps to close out the Penguins. It doesn’t take a degree in physics from MIT to figure out that the Caps have to have much more of a killer instinct about the Penguins than have any of their predecessors (save for 1994).
The History – This Year
After falling behind, 3-0, in the first meeting of the year in Pittsburgh, the Caps came back to win that game and two others before falling in a Gimmick in the last meeting of the year…
The special teams for the two were productive overall, but the comparison is deceptive. After scoring on three of their first four power plays in that first game, the Penguins went 3-for-20 afterward. The Caps, unsuccessful in four attempts in that first game and their first four opportunities in the second game of the year between the teams, finished up with five goals in their last nine power play opportunities...
And now…
If ever there were two teams that were mirror images of themselves in a playoff series, these two teams fill the bill. Young, highly skilled at the forward position, with underrated defenses that still have question marks, coaches who came through the AHL route to the NHL and replaced coaches in mid-stream – these teams are running on parallel tracks. How do they match up when we break it down, though?
Five on five…
On April 5th, we noted a disturbing trend in the Caps’ five-on-five play…
“On February 19th, the Caps ratio of goals scored to goals allowed was 1.29 (numbers greater than one being good, and the higher the better) and ranked 5th in the NHL. As the Caps take the ice today, that ratio had dropped to 1.10, and their ranking has dropped to ninth.”
The Caps remained at that 1.10 ratio of goals scored at five-on-five to goals allowed, and their ranking climbed to eighth. But the Penguins are the superior team in this statistic, finishing sixth at 1.18. In fact, the Penguins tied for third in the league in goals scored at five-on-five (167) and scored 65 percent of their goal total in such situations. On the other hand, the Caps have scored 58 percent of their 268 total goals this year at five-on-five (155 goals). On this basis, the Penguins appear to have a slight advantage, making better use of their even and full strength situations.
Capitals Power Play versus Penguin Penalty Kill…
The Caps finished second in the NHL in power play efficiency (25.2 percent). However, they finished 19th in the league in power play opportunities (337 – 4.11/game). Confoundingly enough, the Caps finished the season with a more efficient power play than their season average, scoring on 20 of their last 72 opportunities (27.8 percent) from March 1st on. But they enjoyed even fewer opportunities on a per-game basis (3.79/game). As formidable as the Caps power play is, the question here is whether they draw enough penalties to make full use of that aspect of their arsenal.
On the other hand, the Penguins had a more than respectable power play, finishing the year eighth in efficiency (82.7 percent), although they got more practice at it than they might otherwise like, finishing with the 12th most shorthanded situations faced (347 – 4.23/game). Perhaps surprisingly, the coaching change from Michel Therrien to Dan Bylsma had the result of Pittsburgh killing off a larger percentage of shorthanded situations (87.4 percent) than their season average, yet faced more shorthanded situations per game than their season average (4.44/game).
The key number here might be “five.” If the Caps can force the Penguins to skate shorthanded five or more times a game, their efficiency on the power play could offset the advantage the Penguins enjoy at five-on-five.
Penguin Power Play versus Capitals Penalty Kill...
There is perhaps no greater mystery this year than the lack of efficiency – given their talent – of the Penguins power play. Pittsburgh finished 20th in the league in power play efficiency (17.2 percent), worse than any playoff team in the East except the Rangers. After the coaching change, the Penguins didn’t force significantly more chances (4.48 per game), although they did improve on their season efficiency (19.6 percent).
On the other hand, the Capitals’ penalty kill finished 17th in the league and sixth among eight playoff teams in the East (80.6 percent). As much as the percentage of shorthanded situations killed off (which could use improvement), there was the matter of the sheer volume of such situations faced. The Caps finished the year with the third highest number of shorthanded situations faced in the league and the second most among all 16 playoff teams. Killing only one-in -five penalties, plus facing almost five shorthanded situations a game (4.72, actually)…the math isn’t difficult – a power play goal allowed per game, which places much more pressure on the Caps’ defense and their goaltending at even strength.
The Caps, however, improved on these numbers down the stretch, killing off 85.5 percent of the 76 shorthanded situations they faced (4.00/game). They will need to put up numbers at least that good to give themselves the best chance to advance. If the Penguins find their stride on their power play and the Caps continue to put themselves shorthanded at rates approaching that of the regular season, this series won’t last long.
Goaltending…
There is no bigger wild card in this series than this. There is no bigger problem in predicting an outcome than trying to figure out if Semyon Varlamov’s performance against the Rangers in the first round was, as the comparison of preference goes, ‘Cam Ward-like,” or if it was the product of the ineptitude of the Rangers’ offense. Varlamov will face a deep, talented, experienced challenge in the Penguins.
More to the point, what Varlamov will face is shots. In the first round, he faced a total of 145 shots in six games (24.2/game). Pittsburgh launched their 145th shot at Flyers’ goalie Martin Biron in the first round at 12:25 of the first period of game 5. The Rangers managed to exceed 25 shots only twice in six games against Varlamov. The Penguins exceeded that total in all six games against the Flyers. And this is without even considering that the Penguins have arguably half at least three players (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Bill Guerin) who are better finishers than any player on the Rangers’ roster.
On the other hand, there is a more subtle variability that lurks in the history of Varlamov’s opposite number, Marc-Andre Fleury. The young Penguin netminder has backstopped a team in a Stanley Cup final. The thing is, though, Fleury had (to be charitable about it) an awful record in playoff series settings before last year…13-24, 3.62, .886, dating back to his days at Cape Breton. He’d won only two series in his playoff career — none as a professional. And going into last year, Fleury could be said to be only going along for the ride with skaters who were much more talented and accomplished at their positions than he was at his. But he came up big, to his credit. But, is that a change due to experience, or an aberration? Based on his first round performance (2.39, .922 in six games against a formidable offense), you’d have to think that it is experience making him a better post season performer. But then again, he was 1-3-0, 4.73, .862 against the Caps this year.
On its face, one would have to conclude that the Penguins’ biggest advantage in this series is in goal, a product of Varlamov’s lack of experience. But in that is also the biggest upside potential for the Caps. Varlamov has been a successful performer in post season and tournament play, albeit playing in and for Russia, not in the NHL (or the AHL, for that matter). He hasn’t cracked yet, though.
The Coaches…
While Bruce Boudreau for the Caps and Dan Bylsma for the Penguins look to have come from different worlds – Boudreau the old school coach who spent a lot of time riding buses in the minors honing his craft, Bylsma with the look of a college professor who hadn’t completed so much as his first season in the AHL before assuming the head coaching job in Pittsburgh – both coaches were plucked out of the AHL to take over underperforming teams, and both oversee teams given to aggressive forechecking and offensive pressure. One might have thought that Boudreau, by virtue of his superior experience in a head coaching role, would clearly have the upper hand in this matchup, but Bylsma has pushed all the right buttons (or perhaps more accurately, pushed fewer of them than his predecessor, Michel Therrien) in guiding the Penguins to a 22-5-4 mark since taking over the reins. If a mistake is going to be made behind the bench, we’re thinking Bylsma is still more likely to make it, but he hasn’t made many so far.
The Players – Sidgeni Malksby vs. Alex Ovechkin...
Do two Penguins beat an indomitable Russian? Naturally, if you sum the goals, assists, and points for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, they will far exceed those of Ovechkin (91-132-223 to 56-54-110). But Ovechkin has almost as many power play goals (19) as “Malksby” (21), more game-winning goals (10) than Malksby (7), almost as many overtime goals (two versus three for the pair of Penguins), had fewer penalty minutes (72) than either of them (80 for Malkin, 76 for Crosby), and has far more hits (243) than the pair (160). Malkin, on the other hand, has far more takeaways (94) than does Ovechkin (60), even without adding Crosby (56). The danger for the Caps here is that they are so “Ovechkin-centric.” It’s easier to shut down one superstar than it is to shut down two. Ovechkin has to have a better series than he had against the Rangers, even if his totals (3-4-7, +5) were hardly those of a slug.
The Players – The Supporting Cast...
If Crosby and Malkin outnumber Ovechkin at the top of the talent pyramid, the Capitals might have the advantage at the next level. The Penguins don’t really have a “next wave” set of players to match Alexander Semin or Nicklas Backstrom. Semin has become something of a playoff warrior. He is 8-8-16, +7 in 14 career playoff games, with two game-winning goals among the seven wins the Caps have last year and this. Backstrom might be the key here, though, for the Caps. In eight career games, he has 13 assists. If he’s putting up similar numbers in this series, the Penguins will be in a world of trouble.
As you descend through the lines, the Penguins appear to have more scoring depth (11 players with at least 30 points, while the Caps have eight, if you don’t count Michael Nylander). But it might be a player who has far fewer than 30 points for the Caps who could be a key here. Chris Clark has only six points in 32 games this year and has played only one game since January 27th (game 7 against the Rangers). But he plays with the sort of energy that could raise the level of play of bring some underachievers – most notably Eric Fehr (two goals since March 1st) and Tomas Fleischmann (3-4-7 in 26 games since March 1st).
The Defense...
These two teams don’t get enough respect for the defensemen they employ. They are very similar in many respects. For a Mike Green, a gifted offensive defenseman with occasional problems in his own end, there is a Sergei Gonchar, whose profile was much the same as a Cap, even if he perhaps makes fewer mistakes at this point in his career than when he patrolled the Washington blue line. For a Hal Gill, a defense-first defenseman with considerable size and whose mobility might be a bit underrated, there is a John Erskine for the Caps, who had something of a coming out party against the Rangers in the first round – a solid defensive effort. For a Rob Scuderi – a very underrated, underappreciated defenseman – for the Penguins, there is a Shaone Morrisonn, who battled back from an indifferent first half of the season to close strong and lead all Caps defensemen in the first round with a plus-5 mark. The thing to watch here is perhaps which of the teams’ defensemen crack under forechecking pressure. Both clubs are vulnerable to such abuse. We’d rate them even, though.
The Intangibles…
The history of this series is just that, history. It means more to fans for purposes of Penguin smack talk and Capital anxiety than it will to any player on the ice. The only player on either team who has experience in a Caps-Penguins playoff series is Sergei Gonchar, and he’s playing for the team he faced in those battles.
After that, there is the real matter of experience, which the Penguins have in this setting and the Caps do not. There is no substitute for experience, and going to a Stanley Cup final qualifies. The Penguins will have the advantage, especially if they fall behind – they can call upon their acquired knowledge that a seven game series can be a long journey and that falling behind a game or two does not spell doom.
For the Caps, they have the experience of having twice fought back from 3-1 deficits in playoff series, losing their first and winning the next. They will always have the “puncher’s” chance that comes with an offense that might be one of the few in the league more explosive than the Penguins’.
In the end…
The Capitals cannot fall behind 2-0 at home the way they did in the opening round. Pittsburgh knows how to close a team out. On the other hand, if the Caps go up 2-0, they have the comfort of knowing that they can win in Mellon Arena, having won in their last three visits to Pittsburgh. Washington has not yet lost in regulation to Dan Bylsma (1-0-1). That should be a source of confidence. If they can get at least a solid performance out of Semyon Varlamov, they have the depth – past the superstar comparison – to advance.
Washington in 6
No comments:
Post a Comment