The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
Ah, Cherry blossom time in Washington.
Ah, Cherry blossom time in Washington.
The trees are about to bloom, the city is abuzz with tourists and
sightseers, and the air is fresh and clean.
Meanwhile the Washington Capitals are in Buffalo. Figures, doesn’t it? But Buffalo is where the Capitals might be
making what will be their last push to play meaningful hockey this spring. This road trip – starting in Buffalo before
heading to Philadelphia and Raleigh – is the last long stretch of games away
from Verizon Center this season. By the
time the Caps return they could be over .500 for the first time this season (if
they sweep the three games), or they could be 13 points behind Winnipeg for the
Southeast Division lead (if the Caps are swept in all three and the Jets win
all three of their games over the same period) and ten points behind the New
York Islanders for eighth place (if the Isles sweep their three games).
But first, the Caps take wing (get it?...”wing?”…”Buffalo?”) to First
Niagara Center for an evening tilt against the Sabres. And despite their troubles – 13th
place in the Eastern Conference – they are playing somewhat better of late.
Since dropping a 5-3 decision to the Caps on St. Patrick’s Day, Buffalo is
3-1-1 over their last five games. And it
is not as if the Sabres played a bunch of stiffs in these last five games. They beat Montreal twice and Toronto once,
both teams that will make the playoffs.
The Sabres' trouble is that then they let up against comparative patsies
this week, dropping a 2-1 decision to Tampa Bay and a 5-4 Gimmick loss to
Florida.
Buffalo spread 14 goals scored over those last five games rather
liberally. Ten different players
recorded goals, four of them – Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno, Thomas Vanek, and
Steve Ott – getting two apiece. Ennis
led the Sabres in overall scoring over these games, going 2-3-5.
The most common feature of these last five games for the Sabres has
been the margin of victory. All five
games were settled by one-goal margins, three of them going to extra time, and
two of them to the freestyle competition. Here is how the teams compare overall this season...
1. Was a two goal performance by
Thomas Vanek in a 2-1 win over Montreal last Saturday a signal of a reawakening
of his goal-scoring production, or merely a blip on the radar of a weak second
half in that regard? Vanek scored 11
goals in his first 11 games this season, but even with that two-goal
performance against Montreal has only five over his last 18 games. It might not matter, though. Vanek suffered an “upper body injury” in a
2-1 loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday and is questionable for this game.
2. For you members of the
Washington chapter of the Steve Ott Fan Club… two goals, two assists, 10
penalty minutes over five games since his tour-de-force performance in
agitation in Washington on March 17th. Looks as if he should be in fine form for an
encore performance tonight. The thing
is, though, he has never scored a goal against the Caps. He is 0-1-1 in six career contests against
Washington.
3. Buffalo has only nine wins in
regulation and overtime this season (only Florida has fewer in the NHL). Defensemen have the game winning goals in
four of those games (Christian Ehrhoff, Alexander Sulzer, and twice by Tyler
Myers).
4. Speaking of wins in
regulation and overtime, Buffalo has only three such wins at home this season,
only one since February 15th, that coming against the New York
Rangers in a 3-1 win on March 12th.
5. The Capitals’ power play
should be salivating. Buffalo might not
have the worst penalty kill in the league, but they can see bottom from their
27th place ranking. The thing
is, no team has allowed more power play goals overall than the Sabres (25).
1. The Caps have stopped the
bleeding in terms of wins and losses, going 5-3-0 over their last eight games
since suffering a three-game losing streak earlier this month. They have made a
bit of a dent in their deficit from a playoff berth in the meantime, cutting
their deficit from the Southeast Division lead from ten to seven points, and
from eighth place in the conference from seven to four points over those games.
2. The Caps are 16th
in the league in first period goals scored, 18th in goals scored in
the second period. They are tied for
sixth in third period goals scored.
Maybe if that was reversed, the record would have been better. Then again, maybe not. Pittsburgh and Chicago – two strong teams –
are first and second in first period goals scored. Calgary and Philadelphia – two teams looking
forward to the off season – are third and fourth.
3. Washington has allowed more
power play goals when playing 3-on-5 (six) than any team in the league. The Southeast Division seems to have cornered
the market on this statistic. Three of
the worst five teams in 3-on-5 goals allowed are from the division (the Caps,
Winnipeg, and Tampa Bay). But so is
Pittsburgh, so there is that. Oh
yeah…and Buffalo.
4. Only five teams have a worse
winning percentage than the Caps when leading at the first intermission. Even Florida has a better points percentage
(.778) than the Caps (.667).
5. In 14 games so far in March,
the Caps have reached the 30-shot mark once.
They have held opponents under the 30-shot mark… once. They have been outshot by an average margin
of 7.8 shots per game in those 14 games.
That is a lot of pressure to put on Caps goaltenders to be sharp.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Buffalo: Ryan Miller
Yeah, who else. He is the face
of the franchise. A former Vezina Trophy
winner. And he is a goaltender you do
not expect to be a “second page” goalie on the NHL.com statistics list – 41st
of 48 goalies in goals against average (2.91).
He does crawl back onto the first page of rankings in save percentage
with a .911 mark (tied for 24th among 48 goalies), but even this is
unexpected territory for the ten-year veteran.
Part of the problem – perhaps the problem – is that Miller has been
pelted mercilessly with shots on goal.
He has faced more shots than any goalie in the league, almost 100 more shots (952) than Winnipeg’s Ondrej Pavelec
(856). By the same token, Miller has
almost 100 more saves (867) than the second place goalie (Pavelec with
775). Miller is the guy in the bowels of
the ship bailing water…and falling behind.
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
Ryan Miller is going to keep his right eye peeking over at Alex Ovechkin in the left wing circle on the Capitals’ power play. The Caps have six power play goals in their
last eight games, and Ovechkin has four of those goals and assisted on a
fifth. Ovechkin has a healthy 19-12-31
scoring record in 29 career games against Buffalo, and 16 of those 31 points
(nine goals, seven assists) have come on the power play. Couple that with the Sabres’ weak penalty
kill, and Ovechkin looms as a large figure in that left wing circle on the Caps’
power play in this game.
Keys:
1. More power!!! We’ve sort of covered that, but this really
is the fault line on which this game is likely to be settled. Neither team is strong at 5-on-5, but the
Caps power play has performed so much more efficiently on their power play than
has Buffalo on their penalty kill that the Caps have to do damage here.
2. Play desperately…as a group. The Caps are, from time to
time, a team that when adversity strikes, dissolves into a squad in which each
individual plays his own game trying to do to much on his own to make up the
deficit. The Caps have to play as a
desperate squad, not as five desperate skaters.
3. Simple equals success. It is a road game. Play it as a road game…simple, solid, strong
in the corners and on the wall. And when
opportunity knocks (you would think it would knock often against a team such as
Buffalo, which gives up lots of chances), by all means, let it in.
In the end, the month of March has been one of a seemingly never-ending
series of “must win” games for the Caps… back-to-back games against Carolina, back-to-back
games against Winnipeg, back-to-back games against teams from New York. Well, here we are coming to the end of the
month and perhaps the last “must win” games. Because if they don’t win this
road trip, there are not likely to be anymore “must win” games for the Caps
this season. So…win.
Capitals 4 – Sabres 2
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