Theme: “In skating over thin ice our safety is in our
speed.”
-- Ralph Waldo Emerson
In a way, Jason Chimera was the 2011-2012 version of last season’s Troy Brouwer. Long a player of decent, if unremarkable offensive production (a per-82 game career scoring line of 14-17-31), Chimera reached the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career in the 2011-2012 season. Even with the career high in goals, though, dark clouds were gathering over Chimera’s production. After recording 13 goals in his first 33 games of the 2011-2012 season, capped by a two-goal performance that got the Caps to within a goal in a 4-3 loss to the New Jersey Devils in the last game before Christmas, he managed only seven goals in his last 49 games of the season, a 12-goal pace over 82 games.
Although he would pick up his pace in the playoffs (four
goals in 14 games, a 23-goal pace), Chimera’s production would crater in the
abbreviated 2013 season. He did not
record his first goal of the season until Game 28, going 0-for-58 in shooting
over his first 27 games. That goal in a
5-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres on St. Patrick’s Day did not confer upon him
the luck of the Irish. He managed only two
goals in his last 19 games, giving him only three goals for the season on 92
shots on goal, tied for 357th among 373 qualifying players in
shooting percentage (3.3 percent).
Fearless’ Take…
Here is the bright side of last season for Jason
Chimera. From 2005-2006 through the
2011-2012 season, only 19 times did a forward play in at least 70 games in a
season, average at least 1.0 shots per game, and shoot to a percentage of 3.3
percent or less. Only one forward – Los
Angeles’ Trevor Lewis – managed the feat twice.
You have to think that Chimera was the victim of profoundly bad luck
last season, even if his career shooting percentage is not especially
noteworthy.
And, even though he has not been an extraordinary
goal-scorer over his career, he has been a consistent one. In every season in which he played in at
least 50 games, save one (2003-2004), he finished in double digits in goal
scoring. Of course, that leaves out his
injury-abbreviated 2008-2009 season (eight goals in 49 games) and last season
(three goals in 47 games), but it still leaves seven seasons in the last ten in
which he finished with ten or more goals.
Cheerless’ Take…
About that shooting percentage. Jason Chimera has been in the league for 12
seasons. Over that stretch of years 83
players have played in over 700 regular season games and have a shooting percentage
of at least 8.0 percent. Know where
Chimera ranks on that list in shooting percentage among those players? 77th (8.8 percent). Even in his 20-goal season two years ago he
was under 10 percent (9.8). Put another way, only nine forwards over those 12 seasons have played in more than 700 games and have a shooting percentage lower than Chimera's 8.8 percent (source: hockey-reference.com).
It is not as if Chimera is asked to make contributions on
special teams, either. He has nine
career power play goals (three with the Caps).
He has not averaged as much as a minute of power play time per game
since the 2008-2009 season (2:07/game with Columbus). He has not averaged as much as a minute per
game on the penalty kill over a full season since that same 2008-2009 season
(1:56/game with Columbus).
The Big Question… Does the pendulum of performance have
another swing in it for Jason Chimera?
Prior to the 2011-2012 season Jason Chimera averaged 14
goals per 82 games. Then, in 2011-2012
the pendulum swung in his favor with his 20-goal season. It swung the other way
with a vengeance last season when he finished with only three goals. Getting back to his 14-goal career average
per 82 games would be an improvement and welcome for this team. The chances of his approaching that mark
might hinge on where he spends his even-strength time. It is entirely possible that he will be
slotted into the left side on the fourth line, behind Marcus Johansson, Martin
Erat, and Brooks Laich. If that is the
case, it becomes less likely he will get the ice time or the quality of
teammates needed to get all the way back to his career norm.
In the end…
When a player is getting into his mid-30’s and suffers as
precipitous a decline in production as that which Jason Chimera suffered in the
2013 season, it would be only natural to wonder if it isn’t the start of the
decline phase of his career. However, except
for a groin problem than caused him to miss 33 games of the 2008-2009 season,
he has been a very durable player, missing only nine games over seven other
seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout.
That his body is breaking down does not seem to be his problem, and he
remains one of the fastest skaters in the game.
He is not likely to be as productive as he was in his
20-goal year in 2011-2012. He is not
likely to get enough ice time in enough situations to reach those heights. On the other hand, it defies credibility to
think that another 3.3 percent shooting effort lies in store. What might be key for him this coming season
is a number that lingers from last season: 12:40. That was his average ice time per game in 47
games with the Caps in 2013. It was his
lowest ice time per game for a full season since the 2004-2005 lockout. In 12 of his last 19 games he did not reach
even that average. In the playoffs, it
was slightly higher (13:39), but the Caps also played two overtime games in
their first round series against the New York Rangers in which they were
eliminated in seven games. And, if not
for the injury sustained by Martin Erat in Game 4 of that series, his ice time
might have been scarcer. As we move to
the 2013-2014 season, his benefit might be in being a better-than-average
fourth liner than a less-than average third liner.
Projection: 79 games,
11-15-26, minus-4
Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America
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