Theme: “The great source of pleasure is variety.”
-- Samuel Johnson
-- Samuel Johnson
Since the 2001-2002 season, there have been 40 forwards in
the NHL who have appeared in 700 regular season games, recorded at least 150 goals and posted
at least 450 points. That group includes
Washington Capitals forward Martin Erat, who entered the league in that 2001-2002
season. He is not on that list by accident or
simply by sticking around. He ranks 32nd
of those 40 forwards in total games played over those 11 seasons, but he has
averaged more goals per game than Henrik Sedin, more assists per game than Rick
Nash, more points per game than Brenden Morrow, more shots on goal per game
than Mike Ribeiro or Alex Tanguay.
Except for nine games at the end of the 2013 season, Erat
produced his numbers with the Nashville Predators. Only twice in his 11 seasons in Nashville did
the Predators finish in the top ten in scoring offense. Only four times did they finish in the top
half of the league in goals per game.
Nashville built a reputation for being a hard-working, defensive-minded club
that did much with meager resources. The
Predators did not burn out a lot of light bulbs on the scoreboard.
What Erat has done, largely anonymously, is display
consistency in a variety of ways. Over
his 11 seasons Erat has appeared in more than 60 games nine times. In those seasons only once has he averaged
fewer than 0.20 goals per game and never more than 0.30 goals per game in any
season. Only once – his rookie season –
did he average less than 0.60 points per game.
Since the 2004-2005 lockout he has been a reliable performer on the penalty
kill, averaging about a minute per game over 540 games played (and rarely
deviating from that average on a year-to-year basis). He has been as reliable (a shade more than
three minutes per game) and just about as consistent (only once deviating from
that average by as much as a minute in any season) on the power play.
Fearless’ Take…
That consistency extends to his power play production. Since the 2004-2005 lockout Erat has averaged
0.20 power play points per game and there was little deviation in his results
on a year-to-year basis (0.20 in 2005-2006, followed by: 0.26, 0.20, 0.23,
0.19, 0.23, 0.25, 0.22). Then there is
his overall shooting percentage. In no season in
which he played in more than 60 games did he finish with a shooting percentage
of less than 10.0 percent, and his career shooting percentage of 12.4 percent makes
him one of only 32 forwards having played in at least 700 games since he came
into the league in 2001-2002 with a shooting percentage of at least 12.0
percent.
Cheerless’ Take…
Whoa, whoa, cuz… Back up a minute. Sure, he’s been a consistent offensive
performer, but let’s not make it sound like he’s been doing it for the 1984
Oilers… or even the 2013 Oilers. Take
that whole power play consistency. Not
that it matters much, but only once in those 11 seasons you talked about did
the Nashville Predators finish in the top ten in power play efficiency (first
in 2011-2012). Six times they finished in the bottom third in the league, four
times since the 2004-2005 lockout.
The Big Question… How will Martin Erat perform in a system
that emphasizes more offense and has more top-end talent on the offensive side
of the ledger?
Nine regular season and three-plus playoff games with the
Capitals is hardly sufficient to draw any conclusions about Erat’s likely fit
or production with this team. That is
probably a good thing, given that he was 1-2-3, plus-1 in those 12-plus games
overall. However, looking forward the
first thought is that Erat will get a look manning the left side on a line with
Mikhail Grabovski and Troy Brouwer. This
is an intriguing combination. Erat is
not necessarily the finisher a Mike Ribeiro might have done well with on the
left side, but he does have the playmaking ability to allow the new kid –
Grabovski – to score goals (something he has done more frequently on a per-game
basis than has Ribeiro over the last three seasons).
In the end…
Martin Erat is likely to be the biggest upgrade on the club
if he merely reaches his career averages per 82 games on offense (hold that
thought on “averages” for a moment).
Think back to last year and the second line. At five a side, the left wing that skated
more minutes alongside center Mike Ribeiro was Jason Chimera (source:
stats.hockeyanalysis.com, even though they have Alex Ovechkin as a left wing). Chimera did not score a 5-on-5 goal playing
with Ribeiro all season (all three of his goals came playing alongside Mahthieu
Perreault). Next in line on the left
side with Ribeiro was Wojtek Wolski. No,
that did not work out, either (Wolski had two goals in 94:12 of 5-on-5 time
with Ribeiro).
Yes, the characters this year are different – Ribeiro and Wolski are
gone; Chimera appears unlikely to get many scoring line minutes – but the point
is that a second line with Erat and Mikail Grabovski is likely to be more
productive as a second line with Troy Brouwer, even if they are just average in
terms of their careers to date.
And, although nothing is certain in life, Erat hitting
something close to his career offensive average would appear to settle into the
category of “highly likely.” From
2003-2004 through the 2011-2012 season Erat finished each season with between
49 and 58 points. Over his career he has averaged 54 points per 82 games.
The stability might help, too. Looking at his last full season in Nashville
in 2011-2012, he mixed things up a bit with his centers. According to stats.hockeyanalysis.com information,
Erat played more than 200 5-on-5 minutes with three different centers: Mike
Fisher (with whom he spent the majority of his 5-on-5 minutes), David Legwand,
and Craig Smith. There is the
possibility here that Erat will spend significant amounts of time with
Grabovski and Nicklas Backstrom, depending on chemistry issues and the
performance of Marcus Johansson at left wing on the top line. That would seem to be more of the sorting out kind of issue that attaches to new personnel.
Any way you slice it, Martin Erat is a player who
brings consistency to a variety of areas.
It is a consistency that the Caps have lacked intermittently over recent
years, especially on their second line. One hopes it will be rectified by the addition of Erat. If so, Caps fans will be pleased, indeed.
Projection: 77 games,
16-38-54, plus-4
Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America
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