The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
“The Stars on ice – will play like mice
Deep in the heart of Texas.
The neutral zone – won’t be their own
Deep in the heart of Texas.
“The Caps shoot pucks – ‘cuz Kari sucks
Deep in the heart of Texas.
The light will shine – from goals divine
Deep in the heart of Texas.”
Hey, Cheerless…you write that one yourself?
“You bet I did…been workin’ on it ever since Jagr signed
with them.”
Uh, Cheerless, Jagr is in New Jersey.
“Huh?”
Yeah…you must have missed those few games in Boston, too.
“OK, well, what about Loui Eriksson?”
He’s in Boston.
“Michael Ryder?”
New Jersey, with Jagr.
“Brenden Morrow?...surely he’s still there.”
Nope…they sent him to Pittsburgh, and now he’s in St. Louis.
“Well, then… who ARE these guys?”
Good question.
The Dallas Stars are a different group than the one that
skated for Big D last season and a lot different than the team the Caps last
faced. Only six Stars from the team that
gave the Caps their first home loss of the 2011-2012 season (a 5-2 decision)
are still with the Stars: Stephane
Robidas, Trevor Daley, Jamie Benn, Alex Goligoski, Vernon Fiddler, and Kari
Lehtonen.
This is a club that has remade itself in the last seven
months since the 2013 trading deadline.
Gone are a lot of old guys. Jagr
(41), Eriksson, Ryder (33), and Morrow (34) have found new teams. What they
have in place are the young (23 year old Alex Chiasson), the younger (21 year
old Tyler Seguin), and the younger still (18 year old Valeri Nichushkin, picked
10th overall in last summer’s draft).
One place where the Stars are both new and old is behind the
bench. Lindy Ruff takes over for Glen
Gulutzan, who went 64-57-9 in two seasons with the Stars. Ruff, who spent 25 years in the Buffalo
Sabres organization as a player and coach, is currently third in career
coaching wins (571) among active coaches, behind only Ken Hitchcock (606) and
Joel Quenneville (661). If the Stars
were to have a big season – 47 wins – Ruff would jump into the top ten in career
NHL coaching victories.
A 47-win season would be a tall order for this team. It is a young group, at least among the
forwards. Three of their nominal centers
– Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Cody Eakin – are all younger than 25. But where the Stars are older, they might be
getting to the point where they are simply “old.” Stephane Robidas and Sergei
Gonchar are on the far side of 35. Ditto
for forwards Shawn Horcoff, Erik Cole, and the timeless Ray Whitney, who will
turn 42 in May. Even Kari Lehtonen, who
Caps fans will remember as a rosy-cheeked prospect goalie with the Atlanta
Thrashers from years gone by has reached 30 years of age. This is a team with a lot of new moving
parts, and even a coach with the long resume of Lindy Ruff is going to have
some sorting out to do to figure out just what he’s got.
Here is how the teams compared last season in the tale o’
the tape…
1. Five of the 18
skaters getting ice time in the Stars’ opener against Florida on Thursday are
new to the club: Gonchar, Seguin, Horcoff, Nichushkin, and Chris Mueller. All except Mueller skated at least 18
minutes. The new pieces are not just
fill-in role players. At the other end,
the defense has an experience issue – not enough of it. Brenden Dillon and Jordie Benn have a
combined 80 games of NHL experience going into Saturday’s game.
2. Every year is a
new year, but last year home ice meant nothing to the Stars, good or bad. They were 11-11-2 at home, 11-11-2 on the
road.
3. Last season the
Stars had four players with ten or more goals.
Only two remain (Jamie Benn, Ray Whitney). Seven had 20 or more points. Four are still with the team (Benn, Whitney,
Cody Eakin, and Alex Goligoski).
4. Think that doesn’t
put some pressure on Tyler Seguin? After
spending three seasons, 200-plus games, and a Stanley Cup season in Boston,
Sequin is now, if not “the man” (that might be Jamie Benn on this team), then
certainly a guy who is expected to produce.
He certainly did that in the preseason, going 1-6-7, plus 2 in five games. He was especially effective on the power
play, going 1-4-5. Dallas need that kind
of production if they are to improve on their 18th-place finish on
the power play last season (17.0 percent).
5. Valeri Nichushkin
is going to be a fine player in time.
Drafted 10th overall in the 2013 entry draft. He had a respectable three goals in six
preseason games in just over 11 minutes of ice time per game. His ice time was ramped up considerably in
Dallas’ opener – 19:50. He managed only
one shot on goal, however, against a weak Florida team. Like we said… in time.
1. It’s early. Keep saying that. It makes the fact that the Caps have been
outscored 6-3 at 5-on-5 and 7-3 overall at even strength a little more palatable.
Oh yeah, and they have more power play goals (five) than even strength goals
(three).
2. Alex Ovechkin has
two goals, Mikhail Grabovski has two goals.
Ovechkin has three assists, Grabovski has three assists. (a-HEM!... that should read three goals and two assists for each...thanks, crowesnest) Ovechkin…two power play goals, Grabovski…yup,
two power play goals. Ovechkin is
minus-1, Grabovski is minus-1. Where
they have differed is in how they did it.
Ovechkin has 20 shots on goals, Grabovski has four. Ovechkin is on a pace for 820 shots on
goal. That would be a record.
3. If someone told
you that even just two games into the season only 28 of 313 forwards averaged
less ice time per game than Martin Erat, would you believe it? Well, you would be wrong…it’s only 27 of 313
forwards who have less ice time per game.
And, it’s less ice time than Patrick Kaleta, Shawn Thornton, and someone
named Lucas Lessio.
4. From the “Let’s
Start a Goalie Controversy” file…in his last four appearances dating back to
last season, Michal Neuvirth is 3-0-1, 1.83, .945.
5. John Carlson has
skated 40:07 at even strength and has not yet been on ice for an even strength goal scored
against. No NHL defenseman thus far has skated more even strength time and has
no even strength goals scored against while on ice.
That might be because the two defensemen who have skated more even strength
ice time are teammates – Mike Green (five ES goals against) and Karl Alzner
(3).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Dallas: Kari Lehtonen
When Kari Lehtonen was drafted by the Atlanta Thrashers
second overall in the 2002 NHL entry draft, he was the top-ranked European
goaltender in the Central Scouting rankings.
Turns out it was not a big class for goalies, at least highly ranked
ones. The top three European goalies
going into that draft (according to
those Central Scouting rankings) were: Lehtonen, Tobias Stephan, and Hannu
Toivonen. The top three North American
goalies were: Jeff Deslauriers, Todd Ford, and Maxime Daigneault. Any of that group ring a bell? In fact, only Lehtonen, Cam Ward, and Josh
Harding of the 33 goalies taken in that draft have played in more than 100
games. Of the top three North American
goalies, Ford and Daigneault never appeared in an NHL game.
Lehtonen has settled into being a good, if not great
goalie. Since being traded to Dallas in
February 2009, he is 87-65-18, 2.52, .917, with eight shutouts in 177
appearances. He was in that ball park of
goals against (2.66) and save percentage last season (.916), but after a good
start in which he went 9-3-1, 2.25, .930 in his first 15 games; he finished
6-11-2, 3.09, .906 in his last 21 appearances.
In 19 career appearances against the Caps he is 11-6-2, 2.76, .920.
Washington: Karl Alzner
It is a bit odd that after two games we should be talking
about a slump, especially when talking about a defensive defenseman. However, Karl Alzner has been on ice for
three of the seven even-strength goals scored against the Caps thus far. Add to that the fact that the Calgary Flames
scored on a power play goal stemming from a penalty taken by Alzner, and he had
a hand (skate, stick, whatever) in four of the ten goals scored against the
Caps so far this season. We have every
confidence that this trend will be corrected, but it would help if the
corrections came sooner than later.
Keys:
1. Take Advantage of
Evens. Kari Lehtonen was 16th
in even strength save percentage among goalies playing in at least half their
team’s games last season. Decent, not
noteworthy. The Caps have to start
making a dent at 5-on-5. Doing so means
that the Caps might…
2. Serve Youth…On a
Platter. There is the matter that
Brenden Dillon and Jordie Benn have only those 80 combined games of NHL
experience on the blueline for Dallas.
If they get the start, coach Lindy Ruff can protect them with the
home-ice last change, even if he really didn’t in the Stars game against
Florida (Dillon had more than 20 minutes of ice time, Benn almost 17
minutes). Against the Caps, who have a
deeper offense than the Panthers, this is a weak spot that might be exploited.
3. Settle Down. Braden Holtby has looked jittery in his first
two appearances. We do not think this is
nerves, but rather the goalie equivalent of a power pitcher in baseball who is “too strong”
in the early innings of a game and falls into the trap of overthrowing his fast
ball. In Holtby’s case, he has not
settled into a game-to-game rhythm in the early going yet, and he is perhaps
“too fresh,” causing him to overplay his position and take himself off his
angles and out of position. He was
similarly poor in his first two games last season and worked himself out of
it. But he should be getting to the
point, experience-wise, where he should not have to play himself out of that
problem, if it in fact exists. If he
settles down, he is the better goaltender in this game. If he doesn’t, he’s not.
In the end…
“The fans will cry - ki-yip-pie-yi
Deep in the heart of Texas.
Ki-yip-pie-yi, means “I’d like to die”
Deep in the heart of Texas.
"The Caps will score – four goals or more
Deep in the heart of Texas.
To leave the Stars – in search of bars
Deep in the heart of Texas."
Thanks, Cheerless…
Capitals 4 – Stars 2
Except that Grabovski had a hat trick, right on. Cardiac Caps are back, and should beat the Stars.
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