The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals finally get down the real business
of Metropolitan Division rivalries on Wednesday when they host the Pittsburgh
Penguins in the first Metro Matchup of Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby. It has been a long time since these two teams
faced one another as division rivals.
The last time these two teams met as division rivals was on
March 28, 1993, in Landover, MD. It was
not a pleasant night if you were a Caps fan.
In front of a sellout crowd of 18,130 at Capital Centre (the last year
the arena would be so named) the Capitals found themselves behind the
eight-ball early, allowing three power plays to the league’s top power play
team. The Caps killed them all but allowed
the game’s first goal nonetheless, an even strength goal by Mike Stapleton
mid-way through the frame.
Mid-way through the second period the visitors added to
their lead on a power play goal by Kevin Stevens. Rick Tocchet added a goal in the third
period, and Mario Lemieux closed the Pittsburgh scoring with an empty net
late. Pat Elynuik’s goal was not enough
for the Caps, who ended up having to endure eight Pittsburgh power plays in the
4-1 loss. The win was Pittsburgh’s tenth
in a row and ended the season series with a 5-1-1 advantage for the Penguins.
How long ago was that?
- The following night the film “Unforgiven” won four Oscars, but it probably didn’t generate as much buzz as Marisa Tomei winning an Oscar for her role in “My Cousin Vinny.”
- It would not be until three months later that Lorena Bobbit forever became a name that would cause men to cringe in horror.
- Buckingham Palace was still closed to the public; it would not be opened to the public until August of that year.
- The video game DOOM had not yet been released (that would come in December).
- Capitals’ winger Tom Wilson was not yet born. We would have to wait a year and a day for that blessed event.
Which brings us to the game.
The way the Penguins started the season, you might have thought they
were that 1992-1993 team reincarnated.
Pittsburgh raced out to a 7-1-0 record in their first eight games and
outscored their competition by a 30-19 margin.
Four of their seven wins were by three-goal margins.
Then they lost a 1-0 decision at home to the Colorado
Avalanche. Then they lost again…and
again. Since their 7-1-0 start the
Penguins have lurched from streak to streak.
There was the three-game losing streak following their big start, then a
four-game winning streak, then a three game losing streak. The Pens have avoided the streakiness for the
time being, sandwiching a pair of convincing wins against Nashville and Anaheim
around a disappointing loss at New Jersey, but they are nonetheless a team that
is 6-7-0 since their 7-1-0 start.
Here are the numbers for both clubs as they head into this
inaugural Metro Matchup…
1. As Sidney Crosby
goes, so go the Penguins. In 13 wins
Crosby is a robust 8-15-23, plus-9; in eight losses he is a meek 2-1-3,
minus-6. Not that things are much
different with Evgeni Malkin. In the 13
Penguin wins Malkin is 2-13-15, plus-4; he is 1-4-5, minus-7 in the eight
losses. In games in which both record a
point, the Penguins are 10-2-0.
2. Intermissions
matter for the Penguins. When they lead
after one period they are 6-0-0, one of six teams with a perfect record. With a lead after two periods they are 9-1-0. But if they trail, things turn around. They are 1-3-0 when trailing after one period
and 1-5-0 when trailing after two periods.
And, only Colorado has a better winning percentage (1.000 on 12-for-12)
than the Penguins’ .909 (10-1-0) when scoring first.
3. Pittsburgh has two
shutouts this season in 21 games. It
does not sound like a lot, but it matches their total in 48 games last season. Both shutouts this season were by 3-0 scores, and both were
against Metropolitan Division teams (New Jersey and Columbus).
4. In each of their
last six games the Penguins have either scored or allowed one goal in the final
decision, four losses when scoring one goal and two wins when allowing one
goal.
5. Pittsburgh has the
sixth best goal differential per game… at home.
On the road they rank only 19th at -0.56 per game, just ahead
of Edmonton.
1. In their last six
home games the Caps are 8-for-23 on the power play (34.8 percent). In those same six games the Caps are
22-for-25 killing penalties (88.0 percent).
Overall they have outscored opponents by a 22-11 margin in those games
and have allowed more than two goals only once.
2. Alex Ovechkin is
22-18-40 in 31 career regular season games against the Penguins, but the oddest
number in his resume against Pittsburgh might be that he is a plus-18. That is the better than any comparable number
he has against any other NHL team.
3. If you are
thinking of a spark from a secondary scorer, think of Mikhail Grabovski. He has six goals and 16 points in 18 career
games against Pittsburgh. His goal total
is surpassed only by his totals against Boston and Buffalo, against whom he has
played a total of 59 career games.
4. Only Toronto and Winnipeg
have more minor penalties charged to them than the Caps, and only four teams
have more penalty minutes per game charged to them than Washington. Only Ottawa and Winnipeg have faced more
shorthanded situations than the Caps.
5. Nicklas Backstrom
and Alex Ovechkin are tied for the league lead in power play points (13 apiece). Ovechkin leads in goals (7), while Backstrom
leads in assists (12).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Pittsburgh: Marc-Andre Fleury
Well, here we are again.
In four years since the Penguins won the Stanley Cup, Marc-Andre Fleury
has had decent, if unspectacular regular season success. In 232 appearances over that time he is
138-66-15 with a goals-against average of 2.44, a save percentage of .913, and
eight shutouts. Then there are the
playoffs. In 31 appearances he is 14-16,
3.18, .880, with three shutouts. If
anything, the start to his 2013-2014 season looks even better than his previous
four seasons. He is 12-6-0, 2.00, .921,
with one shutout – seventh in goals-against average and tied for 14th
in save percentage. But it hardly seems
to matter. No matter what numbers he
puts up, Penguin fans will be on tenterhooks waiting to see if there is another
post-season meltdown in his future. In
23 career regular season appearances against Washington he is 13-7-2, 2.60,
.912, with one shutout.
Washington: Braden Holtby
Meanwhile, at the other end of the ice, there is the
wunderkind with the 10-3-0, 2.40, .937 record over his last 13 appearances who,
after a sluggish start has climbed onto the first page of the NHL.com
statistics – 25th in goals against average over all and 13th
in save percentage. In nine home
appearances he is 6-2-0, 2.28, .936 and has not allowed more than three goals
in any appearance (he did allow three goals in 16 minutes against Calgary). Against Pittsburgh, though, his career has
been anything but bluebirds and accordions.
In three career appearances against the Penguins he is 0-3-0, 4.53,
.861. If you are going to play a hunch,
look for Michal Neuvirth in this one (2-0-2, 1.72, .937, with two shutouts in
five career appearances).
Keys:
1. Make ‘em work for
the zone. If the Caps allow Sidney
Crosby and Evgeni Malkin skate with time and space into their zone, it could be
an iffy night. Both see the ice in full
and if the puck is on their sticks while the Caps are trying to establish
defensive zone presence, the Caps are flirting with danger.
2. Give your
defensemen a chance. One of the problems
the Caps seem to have against this team is in figuring a way to deal with the Pittsburgh
forecheck in a way that does not involve a lot of punishment to defensemen. Pittsburgh has outshot the Caps in eight
straight games. This does not appear
coincidental.
3. Take advantage of
the soft underbelly. Pittsburgh has a
lot of high end skill, but they also have depth issues. Yes, they have Kris Letang and Brooks Orpik
on the blue line, but they also have Deryk Engelland and a rookie – Olli Maatta
– getting regular minutes. They are not
getting much offensive support from their third or fourth lines. Get past the “name” players and this looks
like a good, not great team.
In the end…
It is hard to know what to make of this game. Yes, it is the first “Metropolitan” meeting
of the teams, but with 60-plus games left in the season it is hard to attach
too much meaning to that. The whole “Ovechkin-Crosby”
thing has been done to death, and we get it.
They’re both really good players who seem to bring out the best in the other. They are teams that might respect one
another, but they certainly do not like one another. It’s just a bit hard to find an angle to this
game that goes beyond a faint sense of bragging rights, and that probably accrues
to fans more than the players of either team, who are thinking of bigger things
ahead.
Still, winning against this team always beats losing. Always.
Capitals 4 – Penguins 2
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