Le Peerless Prognosticator est EN DIRECT!!!
The Washington Capitals, no doubt eager to wash, scrub,
bleach, or apply steel wool pads scrape to away the rotten taste of Wednesday’s
4-0 loss to Pittsburgh from their mouths, take to the ice on Friday once more
to face the Montreal Canadiens at Verizon Center.
While the Capitals pretty much wasted a week’s worth of good
will among its fans with the stinker against the Penguins, the Canadiens are
lurching from pillar to post trying to find their footing in November.
After closing October with three wins in four games to go a
season-high three games over .500, Montreal is only 3-4-2 in November,
alternating wins and losses in their last five games after starting the month
with four straight losses.
Here is how the clubs compare in their numbers through Wednesday's games...
Here is how the clubs compare in their numbers through Wednesday's games...
1. While the
Canadiens have had their issues about consistency, one position in which it has
not been a problem is at goaltender. Although
Carey Price is just 2-2-0 in November, he has a 1.79 goals-against average and
a .941 save percentage. Peter Budaj has
not been as impressive in his two appearances for the month, but he is 1-1-0,
2.40, .909. Given that the Canadiens
have not played since Tuesday, Price would appear the candidate to get this
game. Despite his sterling season
numbers – eighth in GAA (2.05) and save percentage (.935) – he has had problems
against the Caps. In 15 career
appearances against Washington he is 4-8-3, 3.09, .897.
2. In alternating
wins and losses over their last five games (3-1-1) the Canadiens have not lit
up the scoreboard (13 goals), but they are likely pleased with the performance
of Alex Galchenyuk. The sophomore out of
Milwaukee, Wisconsin (with stops in Belarus, Germany, Italy, and Russia in
between – his father, Alexander, had a hockey career in North America and
Europe), is the Habs’ leading goal scorer (three) and point getter (five) over
those five games. In three career games
against the Caps he is 0-2-2, even.
3. Only the Colorado
Avalanche have allowed fewer goals in the first period (9) than have the
Canadiens this season (10).
4. One of the ways a
team gets good goaltending performance but lousy win-loss results is to do
poorly in one-goal games. Montreal has
done just that. They have a
worst-in-the-league 2-6-2 record in games decided by one goal.
5. Only five teams in
the NHL have yet to win a game when trailing at the end of the second
period. The Canadiens are one of
them. They are not 0-15-0 bad, like
Buffalo, but 0-7-1 is not something they want to put on the banner of their web
site.
1. Let’s look at the positive. The Caps are 7-2-1 in November. In those ten games they outscored their
opponents by a 32-24 margin. Four times
they scored four or more goals (not including trick shots), only three times
did they allow as many as four goals.
The Caps’ power play was 10-for-44 (22.7 percent), the penalty kill
36-for-44 (81.8 percent) over those ten games.
2. Odd numbers. Over the last ten games the Caps have had fine
production from the players who are now reunited on the top line – Nicklas
Backstrom (3-9-12), Alex Ovechkin (7-2-9), and Marcus Johansson (2-6-8). The third line has done well, too – Joel Ward
(6-1-7), Mikhail Grabovski (2-6-8), and Jason Chimera (1-6-7).
3. John Carlson has
five goals in ten games this month. He has scored a goal in every other game
his last six contests, which makes him a player to watch in this game, since he
did not get a goal against Pittsburgh.
4. In eight appearances
in November, Braden Holtby is 6-2-0, 2.32, .934.
5. The Caps outscored
teams by a 17-7 margin in the second period of these last ten games. They lead the league in second period goals
scored and are tied with St. Louis in the largest second period goal
differential (plus-13).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Montreal: Andrei Markov
P.K. Subban gets the attention, and it is deserved. He is a talented player who is exciting to
watch. But Andrei Markov seems to be the
glue that holds the defense, especially the blue line, together. He has the best 5-on-5 Corsi on ice to when
he is off ice (source: extraskater.com). His Corsi-for percentages are above 50 percent in 14 of the 22 games in which he has played, and they are above 60 percent
in eight of them. Markov does not seem to get much attention in the media, but if the Caps are
not paying attention to him, they do so at their peril. He is 1-18-19, plus-12 in 35 career games
against the Caps.
Washington: Mike Green
There might be no better opponent against which Mike Green
could return from injury than the Canadiens.
In 21 career games against Montreal he is 3-15-18, plus-8. More important, though, Green has to avoid
spending more time on the shelf with an injury.
Missing three games would not normally be cause for alarm, but this is
part of a continuing pattern. The Caps
do not have the best of depth on the blue line when Green is healthy. When he is out, too much of the burden
devolves to Karl Alzner and John Carlson to chew up minutes.
Keys:
1. Score early. It’s a good thing Montreal has only those ten
goals allowed in the first period this season.
Only four teams have a worse winning percentage when allowing the first
goal than Montreal, with their record of 2-7-2 in those situations.
2. Volume. Carey Price does not handle volume well, even
with his superb overall record. Eleven
times this season Price has faced more than 30 shots on goal. And, it’s frustrating, because he is
certainly doing his part. His record in
those contests might be 4-5-2, but his goals-against average is 1.89, and his
save percentage is .947. The shots
might, however, occupy the relatively anemic Canadiens’ offense and prevent them from mounting
any pressure at the other end. In those
11 games the Canadiens allowed only 20 goals, but scored only 24 themselves
and were held to two or fewer seven times.
3. Knock their top
off. If not for Max Pacioretty’s natural
hat trick in the second period of Tuesday’s game against Minnesota, the
Canadiens would have a truly meager offensive output over their last five
games. Take away the Pacioretty goals,
and the Canadiens have ten goals in five games.
Of that total, four come from the pair of linemates Alex Galchenyuk and
Brendan Gallagher. Knock them off the
score sheet, the Habs would not appear to have enough secondary scoring to make
a game of this.
In the end…
The loss to Pittsburgh leaves one with the question of
whether the 4-0 loss was merely a bump in the road for the Caps (one that hurts more only
for the opponent), or whether the Caps' string of success in November is the
outlier. Despite the sparse offense
Montreal brings to this game, they are only a Caps shootout win behind them in
the standings (25 to 24). More to that
point, Montreal has ten regulation and overtime wins to seven for the
Caps. The Canadiens could make this an
unpleasantly low scoring affair for Washington, and that is where the success lies
for the visitors. After being shutout,
one would hope the Caps bring the big boy pants (no, not the ones Carey Price
wears) and make things unpleasant for the visitors.
Capitals 3 – Canadiens 1
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