The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wrap up their California trip with a
visit to SAP Center and the San Jose Sharks. Whether called by its original
name, the “San Jose Arena,” or by “Compaq Center at San Jose,” or “HP Pavilion
at San Jose,” or "SAP Center," the edifice at 525 West Santa Clara Street in San Jose has been
nothing less than a house of pain for the Washington Capitals.
The Caps won the first game they ever played in that
building, a 4-2 win over the Sharks on October 30, 1993. They must have
offended the hockey gods in doing so, for since then the Caps have yet to
record their second win in that building. They are 0-11-1 since that lone win
and have been outscored, manhandled in fact, by a margin of 46-23.
How long has it been since the Caps won in San Jose? Well,
now that you asked…
- Keith Jones and Craig Berube had goals for the Caps in that lone win. They do Flyers things these days.
- Arturs Irbe was the losing goaltender; he would go on to become goaltenders coach for the Caps.
- The video game, “Doom,” was still six weeks from its first release date.
- Meat Loaf’s “I’d Do Anything for Love (But I Won’t Do That)" was about to become the number one single the following week.
- “The Bridges of Madison County” topped the New York Times best seller list for fiction.
- “Seinfeld” fans had just seen “The Lip Reader” episode for the first time.
- “The Jon Stewart Show” debuted on MTV just five days earlier.
- Stephen Colbert was playing a character named “Chet Davies” in a TV show called “Missing Persons”… you probably remember neither.
- “The Beverly Hillbillies” was the highest grossing film the previous week.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Montreal Canadiens, 5-2, after opening the 1993-1994 season with ten straight wins (including a 7-1 win over the Caps).
How bad has it been? Rick Tabaracci was the last netminder
to win in San Jose, stopping 25 of 27 shots in a 4-2 win. Since then…
- Jim Carey: 0-2-0, 4.07, .846
- Olaf Kolzig: 0-2-1, 4.92, .839
- Rick Tabaracci: 0-1-0, 2.03, .944
- Craig Billington: 0-1-0, 2.02, .909
- Sebastien Charpentier: 0-1-0, 2.08, .943
- Brent Johnson: 0-1-0, 7.00, .750
- Michal Neuvirth: 0-2-0, 4.01, .869
- Tomas Vokoun: 0-1-0, 4.06, .895
Taken together, that is 0-11-1, 4.02, .868 in 12 games.
Oh, and like the offense has been outstanding? The Caps have
23 goals in 12 games since their last win in San Jose, those goals being spread
among 19 different players. Only four Capitals have had as many as two goals
scored in that time – Sergei Gonchar, Joe Juneau, Jaromir Jagr, and Alex
Ovechkin. Only Jagr among that group has a two-goal game, that coming in a 5-4
loss to the Sharks on March 15, 2002.
And now, the Caps get to try again. This San Jose team is
every bit as formidable as those of recent vintage that have wreaked havoc on
the Caps. In this game the Sharks will have a chance to reach the 100-point
mark for seventh time in the last nine full 82-game seasons. Their .697
standings points percentage ranks second in franchise history to the .713 mark
set with the 53-18-11 team that finished with 117 points in 2008-2009. They
would seem a lock, having 46 wins with 11 games remaining, to reach the 50-win
mark for the fourth time in franchise history.
As if they needed any help against the Caps, the Sharks come
into this game on a roll. San Jose has won seven of their last eight games and
are 11-2-1 over their last 13 contests. They have the best home record (26-5-4)
in the Western Conference, and only Boston (28-7-2) has a earned more points at
home in the league.
In winning seven of their last eight games, San Jose
outscored their opponents by a 28-16 margin. Their special teams have been
uneven in their run, the power play going just 3-for-28 (10.7 percent) over
those games, while the penalty kill has been 18-for-21 (85.7 percent) and just
had a string of 16 straight kills broken by Anaheim on Thursday.
San Jose features what is now a scary trio of forwards. Of
the 28 goals scored by the Sharks over their last eight games, three of them
were scored by a line of Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, and Brent Burns. At least
two of those three figured together in six other goals. Thornton is 3-7-10 over
those eight games, Pavelski is 2-6-8, and Burns is 5-3-8. Thornton (69) and
Pavelski (67) each have more than 60 points this season. Add in Patrick Marleau
(61 points), and the Sharks are one of just three teams (Chicago and Pittsburgh
being the others) featuring three 60-point players.
The Sharks might have a fourth player in that 60-point club,
but Logan Couture has missed 16 games with a hand injury that required surgery.
As it is, Couture has 46 points in 55 games, a pace that would put him at 59
points had he dressed for all of the Sharks’ games to date.
This quintet has done quite well against the Caps. Thornton, Pavelski, Burns, Marleau, and
Couture have a combined 75 man-games of experience against the Caps and have a
scoring line of 27-44-71.
Here is how the teams’ numbers stack up against one another…
1. Los Angeles
squeezes the life out of teams. San Jose
electrocutes them. They are fourth in
the league in 5-on-5 goals scored; they lead the league in goals scored in the first
period; only three teams have more wins when scoring first in games than the 33
held by the Sharks.
2. If the Caps are
going to allow shots, the Sharks will be thrilled to accept the gift. San Jose leads the league in shots on goal
per game (34.9) and has the second-best record in the league when outshooting teams.
The Sharks have 33 wins when outshooting opponents; the Caps have outshot
opponents a total of 22 times (winning 11 times).
3. And don’t think
about getting the jump on the Sharks.
Only St. Louis (10) and Chicago (7) have fewer multiple goal losses this
season than the Sharks (11).
4. San Jose is a very
disciplined team when it comes to the rule book. No team has taken fewer minor penalties. Consider that the Sharks have taken 207
minors in 71 games, while the Caps have taken 281 (25th in the
league). No team has found itself shorthanded
less frequently than the Sharks. Again, consider that the Sharks are first with
just 187 times shorthanded, while the Caps are 25th with 253.
5. From the frying
pan into the fire. The Caps just left
the top possession team in the league in the Los Angeles Kings. On Saturday they face another top-five team in possession metrics. San Jose sports a
Corsi-for percentage that is: fifth overall at even strength (53.5), fifth at
5-on-5 (53.7), and fifth at 5-on-5 close score situations (54.1). Their Fenwick-for percentages are even
better: third at even strength (54.5), third at 5-on-5 (54.7), and third at
5-on-5 close score situations (54.9).
1. The Caps were
0-for-3 on the power play against Los Angeles on Thursday, making them 11-16-8
in games in which they do not score a power play. Washington is 0-3-2 in their last five such
games.
2. Jaroslav Halak has
allowed two or fewer goals in five of his seven appearances with the Caps and
in nine of his last 12 appearances dating back to January 28th when
he pitched a 3-0 shutout at the New Jersey Devils for the St. Louis Blues.
3. Evgeny Kuznetsov
is the tenth Capitals rookie since the 2004-2005 lockout to reach five
assists in his rookie season. Yes, it sounds like a modest
number, five assists. Still, compare it
to Mathieu Perreault (five assists in 21 games), Tom Wilson (six in 71 games),
or even Marcus Johansson (14 in 69 games) in their rookie seasons, and Kuznetsov is out of the gate
pretty fast, having five assists in his first six games.
4. Washington has
allowed 135 goals at 5-on-5 this season.
Of the nine teams having allowed more, only Toronto (139) is currently
in the top-eight in in their conference, and the Maple Leafs are looking shaky.
5. The Caps are going
the wrong way on possession. After
finishing with a respectable Corsi-for percentage of 53.7 in 5-on-5 close score
situations and a Fenwick-for of 55.7 against the Maple Leafs las Sunday, the
Caps have a Corsi-for percentage of 41.0 and a Fenwick-for of 40.9 on their
California trip so far and have been outshot in those situations by a margin of
73-52. That .956 save percentage in
those situations has come in handy.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
San Jose: Antti Niemi
He is not spectacular, but he wins. Since he dropped three in a row back in early
December, Antti Niemi is 19-9-0 in 29 appearances in goal and has not lost so much as
consecutive games, let alone had a losing streak. Over those 29 games he has a 2.57 goals
against average and a .914 save percentage. Again, not spectacular. But Niemi has been consistent. Only five times in those 29 appearances did
he allow more than three goals, only once as many as five. He does not often wow the crowd (two shutouts
in those 29 games), but neither does he often disappoint. He wins, more often than any goalie in the
league in fact (35). He is 4-0-1, 1.75,
.938 with one shutout against the Caps in his career.
Washington: Mike
Green
In back-to-back games against Philadelphia earlier this
month Mike Green had a goal and four assists.
Since then… crickets. Green has
one goal in his last eight games and is a minus two and has been on ice for
five of the 18 goals scored against Washington.
The Caps are 4-3-1 over those eight games, but more of a contribution
from Green the Caps might have another
win or so under their belt and would be on the good side of the playoff
divide. Green is 0-1-1 in four games
against the Sharks over his career.
Keys:
1. An Ounce of
Prevention. Given the recent history of
these clubs in this building, the first order of business is not to let San
Jose get away. Stay with them, prove you
can compete. Keep them out of your net early.
2. Average Joe. Joe Thornton is one of the most accomplished
set-up men in the recent history of the NHL.
Only one player since the 2005-2006 lockout has played in at least 200
games and has more assists per game than Thornton. Sidney Crosby has averaged 0.90 assists per
game to Thornton’s 0.85. Hold him below
his average, and the Caps have a chance.
3. When Opportunity
Knocks. San Jose does not spend much
time killing penalties. Plainly put,
when they do have to go shorthanded, the Caps have to convert. This might have to be a 1-for-2 or 2-for-3
power play sort of game for the Caps.
In the end…
Everything that has a beginning has an end. I see the end coming, I see the darkness
spreading. I see death.
OK, you “Matrix” fans will recognize that quote from The
Oracle,” but tonight it applies to the San Jose winning streak against the
Caps. It’s time.
Capitals 3 – Sharks 2
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