The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
Elimination Day. It
will be like this for the rest of this week, until the Washington Capitals are
finally eliminated, or in the event of a miracle make the post-season. For Tuesday, the fact is that if the Caps
lose in regulation time to the St. Louis Blues, the Columbus Blue Jackets
defeat the Phoenix Coyotes at home, and the Detroit Red Wings earn at least a
standings point at Buffalo against the Sabres, the Caps will be officially
eliminated from the post-season.
The Caps are trying to stave off elimination in one of the
harshest rinks for visitors in all the NHL, Scottrade Center in St. Louis,
Missouri. For the Blues, it is
home-sweet home, a venue in which they have posted 28 wins this season, tied
for second most home wins in the league.
For the Capitals, it very well could be…
“The Red Mile.”
Excuse me?
“The Red Mile… They
usually call death row the Last Mile, and we called ours the Green Mile,
because the floor was the color of faded limes. We had the electric chair then.
Old Sparky, we called it. You might call this ‘The Red Mile,” because the last
week is going to seem to take on the color of the blood on a white road jersey,
the price you often pay as a hockey player to earn a win and the badge you wear
when your time comes to be eliminated.”
Very poetic. And you
are…
“Paul Edgecombe.”
And you know about elimination games?
“In a manner of speaking.”
The Caps will be facing a team that in some respects
resemble themselves. In 2005-2006, the
first year after the 2004-2005 lockout, the Blues were a struggling team, one
that finished 21-46-15, good for fifth in the Central Division and dead last in
the league’s standings. They slowly
rebuilt themselves, as did the Capitals, who finished 27th in that
2005-2006 season, until they were competitive, then a contender. They have, however, been somewhat
disappointing in their post seasons, though (not unlike the Caps), failing to
advance past the second round in either of the past two post-seasons. However, unlike the Capitals, who seem to
have had time pass them by for the present, the Blues are now poised to
challenge for a Stanley Cup this season.
For the last six weeks the Blues have been a
juggernaut. Before they lost consecutive
games on Saturday and Sunday to Colorado and Chicago, St. Louis went 13-3-1
from March 1 through April 3rd.
Even though they do have those consecutive losses making them 13-5-1
since March 1st, they are poised to set a franchise record for
standings points in a season. With 111
points they are three short of their all-time high, 114 points in
1999-2000. Their 52 wins is a record for
the club.
In that 13-5-1 run the Blues have been the champions of the
one-goal decision, going 6-0-1 in one-goal decisions over that span. It suits their profile as a club that has
played games close to the vest in that time.
Since March 1st the Blues are averaging just 2.47 goals per
game. However, unlike the Capitals,
who have an uncommon lack of success in low scoring games, the Blues were 6-5-1 in games in which they scored fewer
than three goals since March 1st.
They succeed by being very stingy in their own end. Over their last 19 games since March 1st
the Blues have allowed just 2.11 goals per game and allowed more than two goals
just seven times in that span. Drill
down, and it is easy to see why the Blues don’t see that red light going on
behind their goaltender very often. In
those 19 games the Blues allowed an average of just 26 shots on goal per
game. That is consistent with their
season average of allowing just 26.5 shots per game, tied for second fewest in
the league.
The low goals allowed and shots allowed totals over their
last 19 games and for the season as a whole reflect the fact that the Blues are
a good possession team. In those 19
games since March 1st the Blues have a Corsi-for percentage at even
strength of 53.6 and a Fenwick-for percentage of 54.2. Again, this is consistent with their
season-long performance where they rank sixth in the league in Corsi-for and
fifth in Fenwick-for percentage at evens.
It has come in handy for the Blues, because if there is a
fly in the ointment here, it is in their shooting percentages. St. Louis is shooting just 6.9 percent at
even strength since March 1st.
Caps fans should look at that number with alarm. Even with this dry spell shooting the puck at
even strength, the Blues are third in the league in shooting percentage at even
strength for the season overall (8.9).
Here is how the teams rank overall:
1. Special teams have
been good and not as good for the Blues lately.
Since March 1st St. Louis’ power play is so-so --
10-for-57. Meanwhile, their penalty
killing has been very good, killing off 59 of 68 shorthanded situations (86.8
percent).
2. St. Louis is one
of four teams with five players compiling 50 or more points this season
(Chicago, Colorado, and Pittsburgh are the others). The five are: Alexander Steen (60), T. J.
Oshie (60), David Backes (57), Jaden Schwartz (55), and Alex Pietrangelo (51).
3. The Blues are one of only two teams (Vancouver being the
other) to have – well, have had – three players record more than 100 penalty
minutes this season. Ryan Reaves has 124
minutes (in just 59 games), David Backes has 119 minutes, and Chris Stewart had
112 minutes. Stewart was traded to
Buffalo as part of the deal on February 28th that returned
goaltender Ryan Miller and forward Steve Ott.
4. Speaking of
Miller, if he gets the call tonight it will be his third appearance against the
Caps this season. The first two came
when he was wearing the blue and yellow of the Buffalo Sabres. Not that he did poorly with that woeful
team. Miller is 2-0-0, 0.92, .975 in two
Gimmick wins over the Caps this season.
And even though the colors might not have changed much in moving to St.
Louis, the difference in teams is stark in an important respect. Miller averaged seeing 35.5 shots per 60
minutes this season in Buffalo. So far
with the Blues, 25.4. Even though his
save percentage is down (from .923 with Buffalo to .915 with St. Louis), his
goals against average is down more than half a goal per game (2.72 to
2.15). As if it needs repeating, shots
matter.
5. If anything, St.
Louis underperforms their possession numbers.
While they have a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 close score situations
of 53.0 (7th in the league) and a Fenwick for-percentage of 53.1
percent (7th), their shots-for percentage in those situations is
only 51.6 percent (11th).
Part of that is why they obtained Miller to tend goal. The Blues are 15th in the league
in save percentage (.926) in those 5-on-5 close score situations.
1. With their next
appearance in the Gimmick this season the Caps will set a record in the brief
history of the Show of Shows for appearances in a season (21).
2. Washington is one
of two teams (San Jose is the other) with three players recording at least five
goals in the trick shot phase. Those
Caps are: Nicklas Backstrom (7), Eric Fehr (5), and Mikhail Grabovski (5). The Caps are the only team with any players
taking 15 or more shots in the freestyle competition: Backstrom (16) and Alex
Ovechkin (15).
3. The Caps are
without a power play goal in their last three games. That is the first three-game streak without a
power play goal since the Olympic break.
Since beating the Anaheim Ducks in their last win in regulation time on
March 18th, the Caps are 2-for-30 (6.7 percent).
4. It might seem like
an odd combination, but Backstrom is the only player in the league with at
least five power play goals, 30 power play assists, and a shorthanded goal this
season. OK, he’s the only player with at
least 30 power play assists.
5. In five-on-five
close score situations, the Caps rank 24th in Corsi-for percentage,
25th in Fenwick-for percentage, and 26th in shots-for
percentage. Their save percentage in
those situations is .923, 19th in the league. The Caps have had goaltending issues from
time to time this season, but it has outperformed the defense in terms of doing better than possession metrics.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
St. Louis: Alexander Steen
When Alexander Steen took the ice on December 21st
he was fighting Alex Ovechkin for the league lead in goals with 24 to
Ovechkin’s 29. However, on that date
Steen sat out the third period against the Edmonton Oilers as a result of a
concussion he might have suffered three games earlier in a game against the
Ottawa Senators. He had taken a few high
hits in three games after that, the accumulation of instances appearing to
catch up with him against the Oilers.
Steen missed 11 games, and since his return he has not been quite as
prolific in the goal-scoring department.
He had three goals in his first six games back, but then he followed it
up with just three goals in his next 19 games.
He seemed to be regaining his touch in a three-game stretch to end
March, scoring another three goals in those contest. However, after skating 21 minutes against the
Philadelphia Flyers on April 1st, he has been absent for the last
three games for the Blues, the suspicion being that he has suffered a
recurrence of concussion-related symptoms. He did return to practice on Monday
but is questionable for the game against the Caps. He is 4-5-9 in 18 career games against
Washington.
Washington: Alex Ovechkin
Whether one thinks Alex Ovechkin quit on a play that
resulted in a goal by the Dallas Stars or that everyone quit on the play that led to that goal in what would be a 5-0 loss to the Stars, we are now at the point where it matters how one finishes when facing the end
of the playoff push. Alex Ovechkin does
not give evidence of being a rah-rah sort of captain who leads with words,
either in the locker room or on the bench.
That leaves leading by example.
If the Caps are to keep their dim playoff hopes alive or play with pride
and honor when those hopes have been extinguished, it starts with
Ovechkin. He has to lead by example at
both ends of the ice. That does not
necessarily mean getting that last goal to get to 50. It means doing the little things that have
been notoriously absent from his game for stretches this season and especially
since the Olympic break. It will not be
easy, even the scoring goals part.
Ovechkin does not have a goal in Scottrade Center in his career.
Keys:
1. Find inspiration
in the little things. The Caps got a
gift from the Calgary Flames on Monday night when they shut out the New Jersey
Devils, 1-0. Do what you have to do,
play little mind games, convince yourself that it is a sign that this is not
over yet.
2. First Forty for a
Fast Finish. St. Louis is one of seven
teams (including the Caps) that has not lost a game in regulation when leading
after two periods. A big part of that is
the fact that the Blues have allowed fewer goals in the third period (56) than
every team in the league except the Boston Bruins (52). They also have more
third period goals than all but three clubs.
Add to that the fact that the Blues have trailed after 40 minutes only
22 times in 78 games (third fewest in the league), and it puts a premium on the
Caps being competitive early and not letting the Blues carry a lead into the
third period. Easier said than done,
especially on a rink where the Blues have been so successful.
3. Scorers score,
defenders defend. This is just the short
version of the need for the Caps’ top six to perform like top-six forwards and
for John Carlson and Karl Alzner to tend to business in their end. It seems obvious, but it also seems to have
been absent over the last few weeks.
In the end…
The Caps have been here before. As they were about to take the ice for Game
79 in 20070-2008 they were two points behind the Boston Bruins for eighth place
in the Eastern Conference and four points behind the Carolina Hurricanes for
the Southeast Division lead. The Caps
won their last four games, Carolina lost three of their last four, and the Caps
were division champions headed to the playoffs.
But here, momentum matters. That
2007-2008 team, young and full of spit and vinegar, was already on a run that
saw them go 12-4-0 over their previous 16 games leading up to that last
four-game push. These Caps, veterans of
six straight seasons reaching the playoffs, are 2-3-3 in their last eight games
and do not have a win in regulation in three weeks.
Guess we’ll find out if this is a familiar path the Caps are
walking or their version of The Red Mile.
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