The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take their new “Barry Trotz” model on
the road for a test drive on Saturday, visiting TD Garden in Boston to face the
Bruins in a match-up of teams that had very different finishes in 2013-2014 and
that have very different aspirations in 2014-2015.
The Capitals are a team that has been on a slow slide from the
discussion of Stanley Cup contenders in 2010 to also-ran status last year,
failing to reach the post-season for the first time since 2007. For the Capitals, returning to the playoffs
is a reasonable goal. The Stanley Cup
finals? That is something else. Not impossible, mind you, but it seems a
bigger reach.
On the other hand, there are the Boston Bruins. For all the words spent describing the talent
and achievements of the Chicago Blackhawks, the Los Angeles Kings, and even the
Pittsburgh Penguins, the Bruins have won more regular season games over the
last four seasons (177) than every other team in the league except the Penguins
(187). Since 2008, no team – not Chicago,
not Los Angeles, not Detroit or Pittsburgh – has won more playoff games than
Boston (57).
This year’s edition of the Bruins is once more in the
discussion of team expected to challenge for a berth in the Stanley Cup
finals. They are skilled, ornery, and
deep. Last season they had ten players
with ten or more goals, 18 with ten or more points, 15 with a plus-minus of
plus-10 or better. Sixteen different
players had game-winning goals, 12 had power play goals, and 20 players had at
least ten penalty minutes (10 with at least 40).
Here is how the two teams compare in their 2013-2014 final numbers:
Here is how the two teams compare in their 2013-2014 final numbers:
1. Stingy. Only once over the past six seasons have the
Bruins ranked lower than third in scoring defense (sixth in 2011-2012). Over those six seasons the Bruins averaged
allowing only 2.28 goals per game.
2. Inside-out. It is a bit odd to find a defenseman leading
a team in power play goals, but such were the Bruins last season. Zdeno Chara led the club with ten in
2013-2014, three more than Patrice Bergeron.
3. Tidal Wave. No
team had more wins by three or more goals last season than Boston. It wasn’t close, either. The Bruins had 26 such wins, almost half of
their 54 wins, while St. Louis had 21 wins by three or more goals. By the same token, no team had fewer losses
than by three or more goals than the Bruins (4).
4. Ornery, yes;
stupid, no. One might think that a team
with the reputation that goes with being the “Big Bad Bruins,” they might be a
heavily penalized team. Not really, or at least not as much as you might think. The Bruins’ 292 minor penalties taken was 12th-fewest
in the league last season. They did finish second in
the league in fighting majors, though, with 46 (Toronto had 48).
5. First, last, and
in-between. The Bruins allowed both the
fewest first period goals last season(44) and the fewest third period goals (56). Only Detroit (67), St. Louis (61), and Los
Angeles (57) allowed fewer second period goals than Boston (68).
1. The Caps led the
NHL in power play goals last season (68).
On the other hand, only three teams allowed more shorthanded goals
against than the ten the Caps gave up: Philadelphia (11), Toronto (12), and
Edmonton (13).
2. Since Alex
Ovechkin came into the league, only one active player is within 125 goals
scored of the 422 he has. Jarome Iginla
has 310. Dany Heatley is next among
active players with 292. He also leads
in total points scored over that period (814), 42 more than Sidney Crosby
(772).
3. Alex Ovechkin and
Nicklas Backstrom were the first players to go one-two in power play points
since… Ovechkin and Mike Ribeiro did it for the Caps in 2012-2013. The last time teammates finished one-two in
power play points was in 2003-2004 when Marian Hossa and Daniel Alfredsson did
it for the Ottawa Senators.
3. Symmetry. The Caps scored 68 power play goals last
season, 34 at home and 34 on the road.
4. The Caps allowed
only 21 power play goals on the road last season, sixth fewest in the
league. That was nine fewer than they
allowed at home, the largest such negative difference between home and road in
the league.
5. Your Andre
Burakovsky number: 1. Through Thursday’s games 36 rookies dressed in games to
start the season. The only goal scored
among they was Andre Burakovsky’s first NHL goal on his second NHL shot in his
first NHL game.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Boston: Patrice
Bergeron
Over the course of his ten year career coming into this
season, Patrice Bergeron recorded 31 points against the Capitals in 32 career games
(0.97 points per game). Among 16 teams he has faced more than ten times, the
only larger points-per-game mark he as is 1.00 points per game against the Los
Angeles Kings (11 points in 11 career games).
And if there is any further evidence one needs about his all-around
ability, over the course of that career Bergeron has received votes for the
Calder (eighth in 2004), Byng (seven times receiving votes), Selke (five times,
two wins), and Hart (three times). For
good measure he also has won a King Clancy Trophy for leadership and
humanitarian contributions, and he has received all-star team votes in each of
the last three years, finishing as high as fourth among centers last
season. He is 8-23-31, minus-3 in 32
games against the Caps.
Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov
Evgeny Kuznetsov has played in only 18 regular season games
in the NHL. However, in his season debut
on Thursday he skated for 6:36 in ice time, his lowest amount of ice time to date in those
18 games. He skated only 4:10 at even
strength and did not record a shot on goal at either even strength or in the 2:26
he skated on the power play. He did not
record a shot attempt. That is what
skating on a fourth line with a rookie (Liam O’Brien, 2:40 in total ice time)
and a prospect (Chris Brown, 3:42 in total ice time) on the fourth line will
do. This was not the kind of season
opener Kuznetsov might have imagined, especially after making such a good
impression in his 17 games to close last season. New season, new coach, and he has to earn his
time, but so long as he is skating with O’Brien and Brown (19 total games
between them), ice time might be hard to come by. He has one career game against the Bruins,
scoring a goal in a 4-2 loss to Boston last March 29th.
In the end…
The Caps have had as much success as anyone against the
Bruins lately. They are 4-1-0 in their
last five games against Boston and 6-3-0 since November 2010. The Bruins are still the Bruins, a team that
is largely unchanged in key personnel and style for what seems like the last 20
years. They are good, know it, and have
high aspirations. The Caps are a team in
transition (again), looking to find a comfort level employing new personnel and
applying a new philosophy. They are a
work in progress, and progress is what is hoped for after the disappointing result
in the opener against Montreal.
Capitals 3 – Bruins 2
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