The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
Geez, another game?
Well, yeah. There might have been
only two games in Week 3, but Week 4 gets off to a quick start as the Caps head
to Vancouver to meet the Canucks in the back half of a back-to-back set of
games.
This is one of those dangerous games in which the Caps have
clear edges in record and the underlying numbers, but face an opponent that has
the ability to play better than its record to date. The Canucks started the season well, winning
their first three games. However, they
are just 1-2-1 in their last four games.
It is noteworthy that the lone win was a 4-1 decision over the St. Louis
Blues, one of the stronger teams in the Western Conference.
Overall, the Canucks are a team that generally ranks in the
bottom half of the general statistics. Scoring offense is the exception. The usual suspects lead the team in offense –
the Sedin twins. Daniel leads the club
in scoring with ten points, his brother Henrik is next with nine. The Canucks have a good balance in goal
scoring, too. Radim Vrbata, who was
signed away from the Arizona Coyotes to a two-year/$10 million deal last July,
leads the team with four goals, which isn’t bad for the consolation prize in the Jarome Iginla sweepstakes. After that there is Henrik Sedin with three
goals, then a group of seven players with a pair of goals.
Alexandre Burrows and Chris Higgins might be expected to be
in that group of two-goal scorers.
Linden Vey, perhaps not so much.
He was traded to the Canucks from the Los Angeles Kings last June in
exchange for a 2014 second round draft pick.
He had respectable goal totals in juniors (102 in 262 games) and in the
AHL (55 in 191 games), so his presence among the Canucks’ goal scoring leaders
might not be so surprising, but it is early in the season.
What the Canucks have not enjoyed is scoring from the blue
line. Alexander Edler is the only Canuck
blueliner with a goal. As a group they
have Edler’s goal on a total of 70 shots (1.4 percent). As a group they have only six points at even
strength, Edler with half of them.
Here is how the teams’ numbers compare:
1. In one respect the
Canucks should provide a stiff test for the Caps. Vancouver is tied for second in the league
with 33.7 shots on goal per game. The
Caps are third in fewest shots per game allowed (23.7).
2. Vancouver doesn’t
do close games. In seven contests to
date the Canucks have played in one one-goal decision, a 5-4 Gimmick win
against Edmonton in Game 2.
3. The Canucks have
allowed more goals at 5-on-5 (18) than all but four teams: Buffalo, Carolina,
Philadelphia, and Edmonton. That is not
a neighborhood in which one wants to travel.
4. Hockey is not a
dainty sport, but there are some teams more so than others. Vancouver had been credited with 124 hits
this season, fewer than any other team except for Chicago and Minnesota.
5. That low hit total
might be a reflection of good possession numbers overall for the Canucks (if
they have the puck, they don’t need to hit anybody). Vancouver is sixth overall in Fenwick-for
percentage in all situations (52.6), although that drops quite a bit at 5-on-5
(51.1; 15th in the league, according to war-on-ice.com).
1. For the Caps, the
trick is avoiding one-goal games. While
the Caps are 1-1-2 in one-goal decisions, they are 3-0-0 in games decided by
two or more goals.
2. Only Minnesota and
St. Louis have (one apiece) allowed fewer second period goals than the Caps
(3); only Florida (2), Los Angeles (2), and Chicago (1) have allowed fewer in
the third period than the Caps (3). Only
Minnesota has allowed fewer combined second and third period goals (5) than the
Caps (6).
3. One would like to
see the Caps getting more opportunities to unleash their power play. They are tied with Pittsburgh for 22nd
in the league in man advantage opportunities (25). Only Pittsburgh, New Jersey and San Jose have
more power play goals on the road so far than the four scored by Washington.
4. Seven games in,
and the Caps have been outshot only once, 29-21 by Boston in Game 2, a 4-0 Caps
win. Since then, over a five game stretch,
the Caps have outshot opponents by five or more shots in each game.
5. Alex Ovechkin…
tied for 13th in shots on goal?
Hey, the Caps are winning. Who
cares?
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Vancouver: Ryan Miller
Him again? Well, he
might be Ryan Miller, but maybe he’s not “Ryan Miller.” Miller has not had a good start with his
third team in the space of seven months (Buffalo, St. Louis, Vancouver). He is 33rd in goals against
average (2.71) and 36th in save percentage (.906), both
significantly under his career numbers (2.59/.915). He has alternated good and poor performances
over his five appearances to date.
And, while his first two appearances against the Caps last season were
excellent with the Sabres (2-0-0 in a pair of Gimmick wins that went a combined
18 rounds), he allowed four goals on 22 shots in his last appearance against
the Caps, that one while tending goal for St. Louis in a 4-1 Caps win. Miller is 15-12-0 in 28 career appearances
against the Caps with a 2.50 goals against average and a .917 save percentage
with three shutouts.
Washington: Troy Brouwer
One thing about these western Canada trips. Guys get to play in front of hometown fans in
an opportunity they do not get often.
Tonight it is Troy Brouwer’s turn.
Brouwer is off to a bit of a slow start with one goal in seven games,
none in his last four and no points in his last three. There is last season to compare it to, though. In a year in which he set a career best mark
of 25 goals, he had only one in his first seven games, too. In 15 career games against the Canucks,
Brouwer is 3-2-5, plus-6.
In the end…
A back-to-back should not pose the problems for the Caps
that it might later in the season or under different circumstances. The Caps have played in only two games over
the past seven days leading up to this game, and any jet lag they might have
felt going west should long ago have ceased to be a problem. This will be a game of focus and
discipline. The Caps are playing better,
but the Canucks do have talent. If they
have the former, the latter will make little difference.
Capitals 4 – Canucks 2
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