Matt Niskanen
“Let your dreams outgrow the shoes of your expectations.”
-- Ryunosuke Satoro
When the Washington Capitals signed former Pittsburgh
Penguin defenseman Matt Niskanen to a seven-year/$40.5 million contract on the
heels of signing former-now-reunited teammate defenseman Brooks Orpik on July
1st, the deal was not only the longest and richest contract of the 2014
unrestricted signing period, it was among the largest deals the Caps have ever made with an
unrestricted free agent from another team.
It is a lot of money and a long term for a “puck moving”
defenseman who ranks 56th in goals scored among defensemen since he broke into
the league in 2007-2008, 47th in points. What the Caps bought was four things:
1. Improvement. Over the past four seasons Niskanen has
improved each year in goals per game (from 0.02 to 0.12), assists (from 0.14 to
0.44), and points (0.16 to 0.57).
2. Career Year. The 2013-2014 season was a career best for
Niskanen. He set personal bests in goals (10, tied with P.K. Subban and Drew
Doughty, among others, for 18th in the league among defensemen), assists (36,
tied for ninth), and points (46, 12th in the league). Some of that might have
been fueled by a potent Penguin power play (3-12-15), but Niskanen ranked only
23rd in power play points. He ranked sixth in even strength points among
defensemen.
3. Depth. Niskanen, along with Orpik, provides a level of
depth the Caps have not had on the blue line in at least a decade. Teams in the
early 2000’s could go four-deep without a big drop off (2001-2002, for example,
had: Sergei Gonchar, Sylvain Cote, Brendan Witt, and Ken Klee), but you might
have to go back to the 1997-1998 Stanley Cup final edition of the club to find
a Caps team as deep as the 2014-2015 can be with the addition of Niskanen and
Orpik.
4. Prime. Niskanen will not turn 27 until early December. He
is entering the chronological prime of his career. His addition makes for five
of the projected top-six defensemen having an age range of 23 to 28, once
Dmitry Orlov returns to the lineup.
As you might expect, his performance with the Penguins last
season looked a lot better in wins than in losses. In 51 wins he was 7-27-34,
plus-34. By itself his points line looked a lot like his previous career best
year, his sophomore season with the Dallas Stars in 2008-2009 (6-29-35 in 80
games). That kind of performance suggested he was no passenger, even if you
could also reasonably say that he benefitted from having a skilled offensive
club around him.
Fearless’ Take…
Plus-minus has its limits as a metric, but here is
something. He was only a minus-1 in 30 regulation and extra time losses. To the
extent plus-minus serves as a gross indicator of good things and bad things
happening on ice, there did not seem to be many bad things happening on
Niskanen’s watch in losing efforts.
He had strong possession numbers, too. Niskanen was 41st of 197
defensemen appearing in at least 40 games in Corsi-for/on-ice at 5-on-5 (behindthenet.ca)
, sixth among that group in Corsi-relative (on-ice relative to off ice) That he finished ninth in PDO among those
defensemen suggests a certain amount of luck in his favor. All of those numbers were best among the
Penguins’ defense. But here’s the thing. Those rankings aren’t much different from his
last full year in Dallas in 2009-2010 (behindthenet.ca). Niskanen might just be a good
possession defenseman.
Cheerless’ Take…
He ain’t a workhorse, cuz.
Last year he averaged 21 minutes a night, the most he’s averaged over
his seven-year career. Last year he was
fourth on the Penguins in even strength ice time. He was third in average power play ice time,
and he doesn’t kill penalties (42 seconds a game shorthanded last year). He might not play top pair with the Caps, but
he hasn’t yet shown he can skate top pair minutes, anyway. Last year he skated most at 5-on-5 with, inorder, Sidney Crosby, Jussi Jokinen, Chris Kunitz, and Evgeni Malkin. That’s pretty nice shelter there. Is he going to have that with the Caps?
The Big Question... Just what is Matt Niskanen’s role?
By Washington Capitals standards, Matt Niskanen is a big
free agent acquisition. Signing players
in their prime on high-dollar, long-term deals is not something the Caps have
done a lot of over the years. But if one
looks at Niskanen’s comparables by age (25-29) and cap hit ($5.5-6.0 million),
courtesy of capgeek.com, one sees a nice, tidy neighborhood: Tobias Entrom, Brent Burns, Brent
Seabrook. It is a neighborhood of upper-middle
class homes, not the McMansions where Shea Weber, P.K. Subban, and Ryan Suter
reside. And that raises the matter of the role Niskanen will play for the Caps. He could end up on any of the three pairs,
skating on the right side next to Karl Alzner, Brooks Orpik, or Dmitry Orlov
(or whoever mans that spot until Orlov is healthy).
As Cheerless noted, Niskanen has not been called upon to be
a minutes-eater, and chances are he will not be one for the Caps. He figures to get the 17-or-so even strength
minutes he had with the Penguins the last two seasons. Chances are he will at least start as the
third option at the point on the power play, suggesting he will not get the
three minutes a game on the man advantage he enjoyed in Pittsburgh last
season. He was not a penalty killing
fixture with the Penguins, and it is uncertain that he will increase his time
in those situations.
In the end…
This discussion argues for moderating expectations with
respect to Niskanen. He is a good – a very
good – defenseman. He provides a measure
of depth in skill that the Caps have not had at the position in some time. He is not a slam-dunk first pairing
defenseman, and truth be told, the notion of a “top pair” loses some meaning on
this club when they can ice five very good defensemen. It suggests that Niskanen will be part of a
robust chorus, a group that will average similar minutes in even strength ice
time, the differences among them being in how they are deployed on special
teams.
His numbers might not reach those
he put up in his career year last season, but think of his contribution in
terms of “wins over replacement.” He
will be a big improvement over the cast of defensemen from last year that he
replaces, and that should be enough to secure a few more wins for the Caps, the
margin they would need for a return to the playoffs. It is not expectations for Niskanen’s own
numbers that are relevant here, it is the expectation for the team given his
presence and how it firms up what was a thin back line that should be one’s
focus.
Projection: 76 games, 7-23-30, plus-6
Photo: Geoff Burke-USA Today Sports
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