The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals look to extend their three-game
winning streak to four as they host the New Jersey Devils on Friday night at
Verizon Center. This will be the second
of five meetings between the clubs, the first of which was won by the Caps on
October 16th by a 6-2 score.
Starting with that first meeting with the Caps, one that
ended the Devils’ three-game winning streak to open the season, New Jersey is
4-7-2. They have won consecutive games
only once in those 13 games, October 30 and November 2nd against Winnipeg and
Columbus, respectively, teams with a combined record of 12-16-3. Their power play has been anemic, their
8-for-42 run (19.0 percent) skewed by the fact that seven of those eight power
play goals were scored in three games.
They went without a power play goal in nine of the 13 contests. The penalty kill (28-for-46; 60.1 percent)
has been worse. It is almost impossible
these days to have a special teams index lower than 90.0 (sum of power play and
penalty kill percentages). But there,
they are, with a special teams index number of 87.1 for the season (79.1 in
their 13-game skid). It is hardly
surprising that they have been outscored overall, 43-29 in those 13 games. At the moment, this is not the New Jersey
Devils team we came to know over the past two decades.
The Devils come into this game losers of four in a row
before snapping their streak with a 3-1 win over Minnesota on Tuesday. Over those last five games the Devils have only
ten goals. That’s the bad part. Not that there is a good one, but if you’re
looking for one, their meager scoring is balanced. Eight different players share the ten goals,
17 different players have points.
The Ageless Wonder, Jaromir Jagr, leads the Devils in points
in those five games with four (1-3-4).
It figures. Jagr leads the team
in total scoring (3-9-12). But here’s
the thing. That team-leading 12 points
ranks tied for 53rd in the league.
If that’s your leader, what does the rest of the team look like?
As it turns out, not much, at least on offense. Mike Cammalleri is the only other Devil in
double digits in points (6-4-10) and leads the team in goals. Those six goals rank tied for 27th
in the league. This is not a team that
scores much, at least lately.
But here is where things take a turn. Almost a quarter of the Devils’ goals this
season come from the blue line. Five
different defensemen have goals, led by Damon Severson, who has four of them,
including both of the Devils’ goals in the 6-2 loss to Washington in
October. He has only one goal since,
covering a span of 12 games. In this
five-game skid in which the Devils find themselves, they have only on goal from
the defense, that coming from Marek Zidlicky in a 4-3 loss at St. Louis on
November 6th.
Here is how the teams compare in their numbers through
Wednesday’s games:
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1. New Jersey is a
respectable defensive team at 5-on-5, having allowed only 25 goals in 16 games
(tied for ninth fewest). They are the
only ones getting killed on their penalty kill, though, allowing 20 power play
goals to opponents, easily the worst in the league (Buffalo: 16).
2. The Devils have
not scored more than three goals in a game since Game 2 on October 11th,
a 5-1 win over the Florida Panthers.
3. It’s not even as
if the Devils are a poor-efficiency team when it comes to shooting the
puck. The league average shooting
percentage is 8.9 percent; the Devils are shooting 9.9 percent as a team. Four players appearing in at least ten games
are shooting better than 15 percent.
4. New Jersey’s
problem is shooting the puck. They are
29th in shots per game and have out-shot teams only five times in 16
games. The strange part of that is that
the Devils are just 1-3-1 in those five games.
Only Ottawa has won fewer games when outshooting their opponent (0).
5. Despite their
offensive shortcomings, the Devils remain a decent possession team. They are 11th in Corsi-for
percentage at 5-on-5 (51.60), right behind Washington (51.74), numbers from war-on-ice.com.
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1. If it’s a blowout
it is likely, as it was in the first meeting between these teams, to be in
Washington’s favor. The Caps are 3-3-3
in one-goal games, 2-2 in two-goal decisions.
They are 2-0 in games decided by three of more goals.
2. The Caps have gone
ten games without having to resort to the Gimmick to settle things. It took the Caps until Game 66 last year
before they went longer without going to the shootout.
3. Not team in the
league has spent less ice time on the power play than the Caps (69:44). It is a little deceiving; the Caps are 11th
in home power play time (52:28).
4. Washington has not
scored fewer than three goals in a game in the month of November. They are also just 3-2-1 in doing so.
5. The Caps are 3-4-4
in their last 11 games against the Devils dating back to November 2011. They are winless in their last 14 games to
the Devils in which they went to extra time dating back to April 13, 2002
(0-13-1). The last time they beat the
Devils in an extra time game was on January 14, 2000, when they beat Devils,
3-2, in New Jersey. The last time the
Caps won an extra time game at home against New Jersey was March 7, 1992,
beating them by the same 3-2 score.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New Jersey: Cory Schneider
Cory Schneider is expected to make it 17-for-17 in
appearances in goal for the Devils on Friday night. Glenn Hall’s record of 502 consecutive
appearances in goal is not in immediate jeopardy, but the heavy workload for
Schneider does seem to be exacting a toll.
He allowed four goals in consecutive games before stopping 23 of 24
shots in the 3-1 win over Minnesota last Tuesday, the first time he allowed for
or more goals in consecutive games since last March, and those games were a
week apart. He already has more than a
third of the total appearances he has all of last season (45), which was a
career high. It is not as if he is
getting any special breaks in shot volumes, averaging 30.0 shot on goal faced
per 60 minutes so far this season. In
four career appearances against the Caps he is 2-2-0, 2.16, .925.
Washington: Eric Fehr
Eric Fehr got off to a slow start, scoring-wise. In his first eight games he had only two
assists despite averaging more than 17 minutes of ice time per game. In his last four games he has a pair of
goals, even as his ice time was pared back to a little over 14 minutes a
game. The ice time situation seems to be
resolving itself, his having increased in that area in each of the last two
games after skating a season low 8:18 in the Caps’ 6-5 loss to Arizona on
November 2nd and being scratched for the next two games. Fehr has had intermittent visits to the dog
house under a number of coaches, so the idea here is whether he can play at a
high level of effort on a consistent basis, to the satisfaction of Barry Trotz. His on-ice possession stats have been good
(55.2 Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5; numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com), and his PDO (1049) is third among
forwards appearing in at least ten games.
Still, there is something that coaches see in him that they find disturbing
from time to time. It would appear that
it is on Fehr to change that judgment.
In 21 career games against the Devils he is 3-2-5, minus-1.
In the end…
The Devils are down, their win over Minnesota on Tuesday
notwithstanding. This game sets up like
the Games against Carolina and Columbus, both Caps wins, but both of them games
where they let an inferior opponent hang around much too long after dominating
early. New Jersey is a veteran
group. Let these guys hang around too long,
and the Caps will pay a price. It always
seems that going for the jugular is always an issue for the Caps, and it might
be the biggest issue they face in this game.
Capitals 3 – Devils 2
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