The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals get right back on the horse, so to
speak, after their 4-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday night when
they return to Verizon Center to host the Arizona Coyotes on Sunday night.
The Capitals are reeling after losing their third straight
game last night, their fourth loss in their last five contests. The skid wipes out their 3-0-2 start, leaving
them with a .500 record entering this contest (4-4-2). The Caps have struggled scoring goals of
late, and this has been a problem in two unexpected places. Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have one
goal between them over their last six games.
Then there is the defense. Mike
Green has three goals and is among the league leaders in scoring among
defensemen. The rest of the defense has
a total of one goal (John Carlson).
If the Caps are to snap out of their scoring funk, the
Coyotes would be the team against which they could do it. Now representing the entire state of Arizona
instead of just the city of Phoenix, the Coyotes have struggled at both ends of
the ice. They have not scored more than
three goals in a game in their last seven contests, since beating Edmonton,
7-4, in Game 3 of the season back on October 15th. Their scoring defense has been wildly
inconsistent, allowing two or fewer goals four times but allowing six of more
goals three times in ten games.
Arizona is a team that has struggled to put together any
consistent offense. The exception is
Mikkel Boedker, who has five of the Coyotes’ 22 total goals. But even here, there are problems. Boedker recorded goals in each of his first
three games this season, topping off his hot start with a hat trick in the 7-4
win over Edmonton on October 15th.
He does not have a point since then.
He has only four shots on goal in his last three contests. In five career games against Washington,
Boedker is 1-0-1, minus-1.
On defense, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is in something of a slump,
at least insofar as it applies to defensemen.
He has been on ice for 21 of the 36 goals allowed by the Coyotes so far
this season. Only Columbus’ Jack Johnson
has been on ice for more goals among defensemen (24 in 11 games). His minus-11 is worst among 661 skaters in
the league. In only three games this
season has OEL not been on ice for a goal scored against the Coyotes. Twice he has been on ice for at least four
goals against, including being torched for six goals against in the Coyotes’
7-3 loss to Tampa Bay last Tuesday.
Then there is the goaltending. Arizona isn’t getting it, at least enough to
make the Coyotes competitive. Both Mike
Smith (.873) and Devan Dubnyk (.889) are under .900 for a save percentage. Smith has been nothing short of ghastly at
even strength. In eight games his even
strength save percentage is .877. That
ranks 40th of 41 goaltenders having appeared in four or more games. Smith took the loss in the Coyotes’ 3-0 loss
to the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday night (the Hurricanes’ first win of the
season), so it would seem likely that the Caps will see Dubnyk in goal. He has one career appearance against the Caps,
a loss in which he allowed four goals on 22 shots in a 4-1 decision on
October 24, 2013 when he was tending goal for the Edmonton Oilers.
Here is how the numbers compare for the two clubs through
last night’s games:
1. Arizona has scored
only 12 5-on-5 goals so far this season, 28th in the league. They have gone six straight periods without
an even strength goal.
2. The Coyotes
started the season very well on the penalty kill, going a perfect 10-for-10 in
their first three games. However,
starting with an 0-for-4 performance on the penalty kill in their 6-1 loss to
St. Louis on October 18th, Arizona is 15-for-22 (68.2 percent). If there is a silver lining, it is that the
Coyotes have faced the third fewest number of shorthanded situations this
season (32).
3. If Arizona is
going to win, it would seem likely that power play scoring will be
involved. The Coyotes are 5-for-16 with
the man advantage in their three wins (31.3 percent) with at least one power
play goal in each win, 4-for-21 otherwise (19.0 percent).
4. We made a point
that Oliver Ekman-Larsson was having his struggles with plus-minus. Well, there is also Connor Murphy. He is only 21 and in his first full season
with the club, but the 2011 20th overall draft pick is minus-8 in
roughly half the ice time OEL has had (13:38 a game versus 25:32 for
Ekman-Larsson).
5. Like the Caps, the
Coyotes are playing better than their record.
Not a lot, but some. Arizona
ranks 19th in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (49.47 percent) and 15th
in Fenwick-for percentage (50.45 percent).
1. Last season the
Caps were kings of the long change, finishing fourth in goals scored in the
second period of games. They are picking
up where they left off, tied for fifth in second period scores so far.
2. The Caps are one
of eight teams that have not yet allowed ten goals (cumulative) in any period –
eight in the first, nine in the second, and eight in the third periods of
games.
3. The Caps are one
of six teams that have yet to sustain a loss by three or more goals. They have won two games by those margins.
4. The Caps had
better score first. They are one of only
three teams that are winless when allowing the first goal (0-3-1). Carolina and Buffalo are the others.
5. The Caps have been
over 50 percent in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 in seven of the ten games
they have played thus far. Five times
they have been over 55 percent and twice over 60 percent. They also happen to be 2-1-0 in the three
games they were below 50 percent and had a cumulative 9-4 margin in goals at
5-on-5.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Arizona: Martin Erat
You remember Marty, right?
He of the two goals in 66 regular season and playoff games with the
Caps. He has five in 26 games with the
Coyotes since being traded west last March.
He is second on the club in goals (3), but after a 2-2-4 start in his
first four games, he is 1-0-1 in his last five.
He is one of five Coyotes forwards who have been on ice for at least ten
goals against, in his case all of them at even strength, most among Coyote
forwards. In 11 career games against the
Caps he is 1-7-8, even.
Washington: John Carlson
After setting a career high with 10 goals last
season and taking over some of the duties held by Mike Green, John Carlson
seemed poised to take the next step up this season. He has one goal in his first ten games. He has not lacked for shooting, four times
recording at least four shots in a game (he leads Caps defensemen with 26 shots
on goal). His shooting percentage (3.8)
is about a third lower than his career shooting average going into this season
(5.3). It suggests that a correction might
be in order, especially since his is one of the lower lights in this statistic
on a club that ranks sixth overall in shooting percentage (9.76). Carlson is 2-1-3, plus-3 in four career games
against the Coyotes.
In the end…
OK, enough of the playing well and losing nonsense. The Coyotes are a team the Caps should beat
soundly. They stink at 5-on-5, they are
struggling on the penalty kill of late, they can’t seem to score against
air. These are things that should play
right into the Caps’ hands, especially since the Coyotes are coming into DC late after
a loss in Carolina on Saturday night. The
Caps have fallen victim to the scoring in bunches problem lately – three goals
in 12:28 in the loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday, three goals in 15 minutes of the
third period against Detroit on Wednesday, three goals in 1:47 against
Vancouver last Sunday. Avoid that, and
this one should not be close.
Capitals 5 – Coyotes 2
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