The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals bring the first half of the 2014-2015
season to a close on Saturday night when they host the Detroit Red Wings at
Verizon Center.
The three-game home stand that starts with Saturday’s
contest against the Red Wings is something of transitional phase of the
schedule. Having concluded a successful
run against primarily Eastern Conference teams on their way to an 11-1-4 record
since December 4th, the Caps face Detroit, Colorado, and
Philadelphia – three capable teams that will provide a test for the Caps –
before Washington embarks on a treacherous part of their schedule that will see
them facing Nashville, Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Montreal before the end of the
month, all of those games on the road except that against the Penguins. Throw in the fact that the Caps will play
five back-to-back sets of games over the next month, and it is apparent that
this three-game home stand represents a chance for the Caps to make hay while
the sun shines, or to take advantage of home cooking, or [insert appropriate
metaphor here].
The first task at hand is to subdue the Red Wings. For a
while in mid-December it looked as if the Red Wings’ season was unraveling a
bit. From December 10th
through December 21st Detroit lost six in a row (0-2-4, all of the
extra-time losses coming in the Gimmick) much of it a product of doing without
goalie Jimmy Howard, who was out of action with a lower-body injury. Since then, however, they are 5-2-0 and have
climbed within three points of Atlantic Division-leading Tampa Bay with a game
in hand.
Over their recent 5-2-0 run, the Red Wings are led in points
by Gustav Nyquist. Thought of primarily
as a goal scorer (43 goals in 98 games over this season and last), he has been
showing off his helper chops with eight assists to go with one goal. He has points in five of those seven games,
including a three-assist game in a 6-3 win over Buffalo that started the Red
Wings’ recent good fortune. The odd
thing about his point production over these seven games? He is a minus-1, having been on ice for six
of the 19 goals allowed by the Red Wings over those seven games (two of them
were empty netters). In four career
games against the Caps, Nyquist has five goals and two assists.
Five years ago, it was Nicklas Lidstrom as the dean of
Detroit defensemen, one of four natives of Sweden finding playing time on the
Red Wings’ blue line. Today, Niklas
Kronwall, one of that group of Swedes, has assumed the role of dean of the
Detroit defense. The 33-year old native
of Stockholm, now in his 11th season in Detroit, has been a very
consistent defenseman in terms of his production, much like Lidstrom. He has averaged half a point per game over
his career, and this year he is a bit better, averaging 0.56 points per game
(5-18-23 in 41 games to date). He comes
into this game with points in four of his last six contests (0-6-6), but he has
not recorded a goal in his last ten games, one in his last 17 contests. What he has not done recently is get pucks all the way
to the net. Kronwall has five shots on
goal in his last nine games after recording 15 over a five-game span ending
December 16th. In 11 career
games against the Caps, Kronwall is 1-4-5, minus-5.
Jimmy Howard has 16 of Detroit’s 22 wins, and his absence after
he left the ice after the first period of a December 19th game
against the New York Islanders threw sand into the gears of the Red Wing
machine. Petr Mrazek performed well in
Howard’s absence in that game and the two that followed, but the fact remains
that it is Howard who dominates the team's statistics at the position and who
ranks highly in the league rankings – 4th in goals against average
(2.08) and tenth in save percentage (.921).
His 1,846 minutes ranks tenth among goalies in ice time. One thing that has eluded him is success
against Washington. He is 3-1-2, 3.23,
.880 in six career appearances against the Capitals.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. The Red Wings are
a team that seems to get better as games go on.
They are tied for 17th in first period goals (32), but rank 7th
in third period goals (42).
2. Scoring first seems not to be a very good predictor of Red
Wings’ success. Twenty times in 41 games
this season Detroit has scored first.
Their .500 winning percentage (10-4-6) ranks 27th in the
league. On the other hand, their .571
winning percentage when scored upon first (12-6-3) is second in the league.
3. Detroit plays well
in comfort. In game decided by more than
one goal, the Red Wings are 13-7. However,
in one-goal games, their winning percentage of .429 (9-3-9) ranks 22nd.
4. The Red Wings have
long had a reputation of getting it done without having to resort to the dark
arts. Things have not changed. Detroit ranks last in the league in fighting
majors. Only two Red Wings have engaged
in fisticuffs this season, Kyle Quincey and Brendan Smith, the latter being
sent off twice for fighting.
5. Detroit has the
best special teams index in the league.
Their 24.5 percent power play (second in the league) and 86.8 percent
penalty kill (fourth) combine for an index of 111.3, almost two full points
better than Pittsburgh (109.4).
1. The Caps have had
trouble finding that elusive fourth straight win this season (they have four
three-game winning streaks). They do,
however, have a four-game winning streak at home, their longest such streak of
the season. After going 4-4-3 in their
first 13 home games, the Caps are 5-1-1 in their last seven home contests.
2. Intermissions are
a good indicator of what Capital outcomes might be. Their 11-1-1 record when
leading after one period is the sixth-best winning percentage in the league
(.846), while their 18-1-2 record reflects the second highest win total.
3. That one-goal game
record for Detroit of which we spoke?
Yes, the Red Wings rank 22nd in one-goal game winning
percentage. The team right behind them
in the rankings is Washington (10-6-8/.417).
4. Of the 22 skaters
appearing for the Caps this season, only two are in “minus” territory (Jason
Chimera: minus-1, and Tom Wilson: minus-2).
Last season, 19 of 35 skaters finished underwater in plus-minus. At the other end, three Caps have a
plus-minus of plus-10 or better this season: John Carlson (plus-14), Eric Fehr (plus-12),
and Alex Ovechkin (plus-10).
5. Three players in
the NHL have played in at least 40 games and have yet to record a penalty
minute: Anaheim’s Cam Fowler (in 41 games), Calgary’s Johnny Gaudreau (in 41
games), and Washington’s Marcus Johansson (in 40 games). Since the 2010-2011 season, no player
appearing in more than 200 games has fewer penalty minutes than Johansson (26
PIMs in 303 games).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Detroit: Pavel Datsyuk
Pavel Datsyuk just does not seem to age. Perhaps the only concession he has made to
the advance of time is a susceptibility to injury (he has played in only 75 of
the Wings’ 123 games over the past two seasons). However, Datsyuk, with a career
points-per-game average of 0.98, is averaging a point a game this season (30 in
30 contests). What is standing out is
his goal-scoring. His 14 goals in 30
games is, so far, his best goals-per-game production (0.47) in his 13-year career. It is a product of his shooting percentage
(17.5) that is his third best in his career and his best since converting on
19.3 percent of his shots in 2005-2006. He
comes into this game with points in six of his last eight games (2-5-7). In 14 career games against Washington,
Datsyuk is 5-13-18, plus-4.
Washington: Joel Ward
Joel Ward started the season with a hot streak – seven goals
in his first 13 games. Then he went
three games before scoring again, four games without one, eight games without
one, then nine games, a streak he would
like not to reach ten as the Caps take on the Red Wings. It has not been for lack of shooting. Ward has one goal in his last 18 games, but
on a total of 30 shots, a 3.3 percent shooting percentage. Last season Ward finished seventh in the
league in shooting percentage (18.0), and even with his recent slump is
shooting 14.1 percent overall this season. In three-plus seasons with the Caps,
Ward’s overall shooting percentage is 14.3 percent. Perhaps he’s just shooting in bad luck at the
moment. In 24 games against the Red
Wings, Ward has a career scoring line of 10-7-17, plus-7.
In the end…
Playing Detroit is like playing the Yankees in baseball. They are a standard against which every team
measures themselves. This will be no
different for the Caps. Making it a more
important game is that a win in regulation time moves the Caps within a point
of the Red Wings for fifth in the Eastern Conference with a game in hand. This will be the fourth of a six-game road
trip on which the Red Wings find themselves, and they come into this contest
having won their last two games, the Alberta portion of the journey (4-2 over
Edmonton, 3-2 over Calgary). This is something
of a trap game for the Red Wings, it being the only contest Detroit will play
over a six-day period.
The Caps have done well against the Red Wings recently. Coming into this season Washington had not
lost in regulation time to Detroit since dropping a 3-2 decision at Joe Louis
Arena in March 2011. They had not lost
at home to the Red Wings in any fashion since losing a 4-3 decision in December
2005. However, the Red Wings did win the
first meeting of these clubs this season, a 4-2 decision at Verizon Center on October 29th. It is time the Caps returned the favor.
Capitals 4 – Red Wings 2
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