The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals return to the friendly confines of
Verizon Center Sunday night to meet the Toronto Maple Leafs in a battle of
teams on opposite sides of the playoff divide.
Caps fans will be hoping the the team can return to winning ways after
suffering first streak of three consecutive losses in regulation and winless
week in almost four months.
The three losses the Caps bring into this game came against
Metropolitan Division opponents in each case. There are two things that the
Caps need to address off the top. One is
surrendering first period goals. In their three straight losses they were outscored,
4-1, in the first periods of games and trailed at the first intermission in
each one. The second thing is special
teams. Washington was just 1-for-12 (8.3
percen t) on the power play and allowed a shorthanded goal in their three
losses, and they were an equally poor 9-for-12 killing penalties (75.0
percent).
Part of the problem is that the big names did not play big
in the three losses. Alex Ovechkin had
one power play goal in three games (his only point), Nicklas Backstrom went all
three games without a point, as did defenseman Mike Green, and goalie Braden
Holtby allowed four goals on 25 shots (.840 save percentage) in the first
period of the three games. Having no
Caps with more than one goal for the week, and having Eric Fehr and Jason Chimera
leading the forwards with two assists apiece was not a recipe for wins.
While the Caps had to deal with the unusual circumstance of
a losing streak, such occurrences have become far too regular for the Maple
Leafs. Toronto had a six-game winning
streak in December that left them 19-9-3 and only two points out of the
Atlantic Division lead. Since then, the Leafs are 6-23-2 with losing streaks of
11, five, three (twice), and two games.
They will come to Washington having lost to the Montreal Canadiens, 4-0,
breaking their first winning “streak” – two games – since that six-game streak
in December.
As befits a team having long dropped out of playoff
contention, Toronto has been moving assets – Daniel Winnik to Pittsburgh for
Zach Sill and two draft picks; Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli to Nashville
for Olli Jokinen, a prospect forward, and a draft pick; David Clarkson to
Columbus for Nathan Horton.
For Toronto the future certainly is not “now.” And for Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk, and
Tyler Bozak – the top three scorers for the Leafs – the future might not be in
Toronto. All three have been linked to
trade rumors of one sort or another, Bozak to Edmonton, van Riemsdyk generally (although the thinking is he could be a part of the rebuild), Kessel to…well, perhaps lots of places.
None of the three have had a big month of February, as one
might expect with the weight of potential trades pressing on their
shoulders. Kessel has two goals in 11
games this month and is a minus-7. Van
Riemsdyk has one goal for the month and is minus-6. Bozak has had the best scoring month of the
three – 3-3-6 – but he carries a minus-8 along with that scoring line for
February.
If you look at the players who departed in trade, Daniel
Winnik, David Clarkson, Mike Santorelli, and Cody Franson combined for 34 of
the 167 goals scored by the Leafs this season, more than 20 percent of the
total. One wonders where the scoring
will be made up. Chances are it will
not. The new guys – Jokinen and Sill –
have combined for one point in seven man-games.
Which brings us to Nazem Kadri.
He has been the focus of trade stories as well, but at age 24 and the
number four scorer on the team (15-19-34) he might be considered part of the
rebuild going forward as well. He has
only two goals for the month, but being “even” in plus-minus over 11 games for
the month almost qualifies him for Selke consideration for this team.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. The Maple Leafs
are a team that gets behind the eight-ball early. Only four teams have scored first fewer times
in games than Toronto (27), no team has allowed more first period goals than
the Leafs (63), and no team has trailed in more games after the first period
than the Maple Leafs (27).
2. One thing about
the Leafs, they do not play games close.
No team has played more games to decisions of three or more goals than
Toronto, who takes a 15-15 record in such games into their contest with the
Capitals. Here is the odd part about
that statistic, though. While the Maple
Leafs have a three-or-more goal decision in roughly one game out of every two
(30 times in 62 games), they have had only three such decisions in their last
15 games (1-2-0, both losses on the road in New Jersey and Montreal).
3. Odd stat…with
David Clarkson now in Columbus, only one Leaf has more than one fight this
season. Dion Phaneuf has five bouts.
4. If there is a
shorthanded goal to be scored in this game it would not be a surprise. No team has had more combined shorties for
and against than Toronto (16). Only
three teams have more shorthanded goals scored than the Maple Leafs (7), and no
team has allowed more shorthanded goals (9).
5. As one might
expect, the Leafs are a team that struggles with possession. They are 27th in the league in
5-on-5 Corsi-for percentage (46.3) and 27th in Fenwick-for
percentage (46.4). They are barely better,
from a ranking standpoint, in close score situations – 26th in both
Corsi-for percentage (46.1) and Fenwick-for percentage (46.6; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. About those
shorthanded goals. No team has
participated in games with fewer shorties than the Caps (5) – three goals
scored and two allowed.
2. Even with the four
first period goals allowed in the three games the Caps lost coming into this game,
they have the sixth-fewest goals allowed in the first period this season (42).
3. Only three teams
have committed more minor penalties than the Caps this season (242) – Columbus (243),
Pittsburgh (270), and Winnipeg (303).
4. No team in the
league has taken a lead into the third period more times this season than the
Caps (30). Only Tampa Bay has more wins
in those situations (27) than the Caps (26), and Washington has lost just one
game in regulation when leading after two periods.
5. The three-game
losing streak for the Caps has been a possession nightmare. Even accounting for the small population size
of events, the Corsi-for (47.1) and Fenwick-for percentage (46.2) at 5-on-5 was
poor. It was worse in close score
situations, a Corsi-for percentage of 41.7 and a Fenwick-for percentage of
42.2 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Toronto: Jonathan Bernier/James Reimer
Playing goaltender for the Toronto Maple Leafs is like
trying to turn back a tsunami with a bath sponge. The combined save percentage of Jonathan
Bernier and James Reimer is a not-awful .912, but their combined goals against
average of 2.87 is not conducive to winning many games. Even if their combined save percentage was
.924 (the save percentage of Washington’s Braden Holtby), their combined goals
against average would be 2.47 (Holtby’s is 2.20). Bernier took the call in each of the last
three games for the Leafs, including last night’s 4-0 loss to Montreal. It suggests that Reimer will tend goal for
Toronto against the Caps. The trouble
there is that he has struggled. “Struggle”
might be too weak a term. In his last 14
appearances Reimer is 1-10-0 (three no decisions), 3.06, .903. Take out the no-decisions, all of them in
relief of Bernier and all of them perfect in save percentage, his save
percentage in full games over that stretch is .896. Reimer is 2-3-1, 2.62, .922 in six career
appearances against Washington.
Washington: Tim Gleason
When the Caps swapped defensemen with Carolina – Jack Hillen
(and a draft pick) for Tim Gleason – the Caps upgraded their “sturdy” quotient
on the blue line. Despite playing in
just 55 games with the Hurricanes he led the team’s defensemen in hits (133)
and is in the top-25 in the league (23rd). This is the second straight season that
Gleason has been traded in-season. On
New Year’s Day 2014 the Hurricanes traded Gleason to Toronto for defenseman
John-Michael Liles and a prospect (he re-signed with Carolina as a free agent
before this season). What the Caps will
not get in the trade is offense, although perhaps strangely Gleason does have a
goal this season (Hillen did not with the Caps in 35 games). Since scoring a career high five goals in
2009-2010, Gleason has a total of five goals in 317 games over five
seasons. He is 0-3-3, plus-6, in 11
career games against Toronto.
In the end…
You would think this would be an easy one for the Capitals
to win. The Leafs can’t string together wins,
they are selling off pieces, they give up a ton of shots, they have been a poor
possession team when whole. Then you
remember that the Caps allowed a season-high six goals to Toronto back on
November 29th. Washington is
23-11-6 since that loss, including a 6-2 win over the Maple Leafs on January 7th
(a team high in goals scored this season for the Caps), but that loss in
November serves as a reminder that any team, even one as wounded as the Leafs,
can be dangerous. And if that isn’t
enough, the Caps have been in a rut over the past week that needs to be
addressed. The imminent trading deadline
of 3 p.m. on Monday is a distraction, but that is part of being a pro – dealing
with distractions. This game might have
its annoying moments, but it should be one in which the Caps return to winning
ways.
Capitals 5 – Maple Leafs 2
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