The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals look to make it five wins in their
last six games as they wrap up their abbreviated two-game home stand against
the Nashville Predators on Saturday afternoon.
This will be the Caps’ last contest against a Western Conference opponent
this season, unless they should advance to the Stanley Cup final. The Caps come
into this contest with a 12-12-3 record against the West this season, a 6-7-0
record against the Central Division, and an 0-1-0 record against the Predators,
having lost a 4-3 decision in Nashville on January 16th when the Preds overcame
a 3-2 deficit with two goals in the final five minutes of the contest to take
the victory.
Nashville comes into this contest with something of a rocky
2015 portion of the season, although the Predators seem to be righting
themselves at the right time. Their
streaks since the new year began look like this:
- January 3 – 16: 6-0-1 (ending with the win over the Caps)
- January 17 – 30: 1-2-2
- February 1 – 17: 8-1-0
- February 19 – March 17: 4-9-2
- March 21 – 26: 3-0-0
That 22-12-5 record overall has left the Predators at the
top of the Central Division and with the second best record in the conference
(46-21-8/100 points), one point behind the Anaheim Ducks (47-22-7/101 points).
Nashville has struggled on the road recently, even through
their streaks, posting a 3-4-0 road record in March. In those seven games the Predators have been
outscored, 17-11, and their special teams have not been very special. The power play is 2-for-24 in the seven road
games (8.3 percent), while the penalty kill is 15-for-21 (71.4 percent).
Scoring has come hard for the Predators on the road in
March. Only once in seven away games
have they recorded more than two goals, and only Paul Gaustad has more than one
goal for the Predators in those seven games.
Those two goals doubled Gaustad’s total for the season, the four goals
being a career low for a season in which Gaustad played in at least 50 games. In 24 career games against the Capitals, he
is 2-2-4, plus-5.
Taylor Beck is in his first full season with the Predators
after being taken in the third round of the 2009 entry draft. He also happens to be Nashville’s leading
scorer on the road in March with four points (1-3-4). It is something of an unexpected outburst
from Beck, who for the season is 7-8-15.
He is something of a road warrior, though. Of his seven goals, five have come on the
road, and 11 of this 15 points have been recorded outside of Tennessee. He has appeared in just one game against the
Caps so far in his career, finishing without a point.
Perhaps lost in the hoopla that surrounds the season of
Montreal goaltender Carey Price, Nashville’s Pekka Rinne is putting together a
season that would appear to make him a contender for one of the other finalist
spots for the Vezina Trophy. Rinne is
tied with Price for most wins by a goaltender (40), is third in goals against
average (2.08), is fifth in save percentage (.927), and has four shutouts. His .935 save percentage at even strength is
fifth among goaltenders appearing in at least 20 games this season. He has done his part on the road for the
Predators in March, although his record does not reflect it. He is 3-3-0 in March road games with a 2.02
goals against average and a .929 save percentage. In one of the odd instances of the
Caps-Predators rivalry, Rinne has appeared against the Caps only once in his
career, that coming in November 2011.
He made 39 saves in a 3-1 win in Nashville.
Here is how the teams’ numbers compare overall:
1. Nashville is
something of a slow starter in games, having scored only 54 goals in the first
periods of games this season. They do
close with a rush, though. Of their 200
goals scored in regulation, 146 of them (73 percent) have been scored in the
final 40 minutes.
2. Only the New York
Rangers have a larger ratio of goals scored to goals allowed at 5-on-5 this
season (1.37:1) than the Predators (1.31:1).
The Rangers have a goal differential of plus-44 at 5-on-5, while
Nashville has one of plus-41 (the Caps are plus-7).
3. The sweet spot for
beating Nashville is the two-goal decision.
The Predators have the third-best winning percentage in one-goal games
(.674/29-6-8), and they have the third-best winning percentage in games decided
by three or more goals (.667/12-6). In
two-goal games they are 5-9 (.357 winning percentage).
4. Those first period
goal totals suggest that Nashville is not an especially adept team at
front-running, but watch out if they do get out to leads. They have scored the first goal only 32 times
in 75 games, the seventh-fewest amount of first-goal games in the league. However, when scoring that first goal,
Nashville is 26-2-4, their .813 winning percentage third-best in the league. Similarly for first period leads, the
Predators have led after 20 minutes just 22 times in 75 games, 12th fewest in
the league. They are, however, 19-1-2 in
those games, their .864 winning percentage ranking third in the league.
5. Nashville’s possession performance in March road games
has been very different in 5-on-5 situations overall and 5-on-5 close score
situations. Overall, the Predators’
Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages at 5-on-5 are 50.2/49.4. In close score situations those percentages
jump: 55.0/53.6.
1. Nashville does not
score much in the first period of games, and the Caps are stingy in allowing goals
in the first period of contests. Only
five teams have allowed fewer first period goals than the 50 allowed by
Washington (of course, Nashville recorded one of those goals in the first
meeting of the clubs). The Caps have,
however, been a bit less stingy at home, allowing 25 goals in the first period
of 37 home games (12th-fewest in the league).
2. If PDO is, in
part, “puck luck,” the Caps don’t seem to have it late in games at home. They have a 5-on-5 PDO at home of 101.9 in
the first periods of games (seventh-best in the league), and a second period
5-on-5 PDO of 101.6 (eighth). The third
period falls off – 98.3 (23rd).
3. The Caps have won
four of their last five games, but they have not been doing it with
offense. In those five games they have
only 11 goals, and their power play is 3-for-11 (but 0-for-8 in the last three
games). They have played on the margin,
too, winning two games in extra time and another by one goal.
4. Washington still
needs to improve on those one-goal games, though. The Caps rank 18th in one-goal
game winning percentage (.452/19-13-10).
Decisions by more than one goal are not a problem (21-11, including a
league best 12-4 record in games decided by three or more goals).
5. In their recent
five-game run of good fortune, the Caps’ possession numbers have been generally
solid. At 5-on-5 overall their Corsi-for
and Fenwick-for percentages are 56.0/54.6.
In close score situations they are 55.3/53.9.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Nashville: Seth Jones
Learning to play defense for a defenseman in the National
Hockey League is a process, not an instant mix in which you just add talent,
even for a fourth overall pick like Seth Jones.
Last season – his rookie year in the NHL – Jones was on ice for 76 goals
against in 77 games (1,511 minutes played).
Only Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba was on ice for more goals against among rookie
defensemen (77). This year, in 75 games,
Jones has been on ice for only 56 goals against (1,466 minutes played). He has managed this improvement with almost
identical offensive numbers: 6-19-25 last season, 6-18-24 this season. It is the difference between being a minus-23
last season (last among rookie defensemen) and being a plus-6 this season. Jones is 1-1-2, plus-3 in two career games
against the Caps.
Washington: Joel Ward
Joel Ward has never scored a goal against his old team,
either before he joined the Predators when he played for Minnesota (he never
faced Nashville as a member of the Wild) or since joining the Capitals (no
goals in five games). Of more immediate
concern, Ward has gone seven straight games without a goal, and he has just
seven in his last 52 games dating back to November 28th (an 11-goal season
pace). It is a symptom of the lack of secondary scoring the Caps have had.
Ward has been something of a slow finisher in the regular
season over his career. In the last ten
games of each of his six full seasons before this one, he had six goals in the
60 games. Getting more production out of
Ward – and the bottom nine forwards generally – will be key in whether the Caps
advance to the post season or find themselves coming up short. Ward is 0-1-1, minus-1, in five career games
against Nashville.
In the end…
The playoffs start early for the Caps. Despite holding a five-point lead over both
the Ottawa Senators and the Boston Bruins for one of the two wild-card playoff
spots, the Senators hold a game in hand and, more important, the schedule to
close the regular season is sprinkled with playoff-eligible teams
throughout for the Caps. It starts today against the
Predators. Fortunately for the Caps,
history would appear to be on their side.
Washington holds a 7-2-0 all-time record against Nashville at Verizon
Center and have a four-game home winning streak against the Preds. It seems likely to be a game that fans of the
game within a game – goalie vs. goalie – will like, but one that will feature
little offense. Pekka Rinne will be hard
to solve, but a power play goal, a deflection, and an empty netter might be the
formula here.
Capitals 3 – Predators 1
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