The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals begin their march to the Stanley Cup
on Wednesday night when they host the New York Islanders at Verizon Center.
The Caps and the Islanders have a rich history of playoff
meetings, the teams having met six times in the post season:
- 1983 Patrick Division Semifinal - Islanders win best-of-five, 3-1
- 1984 Patrick Division Final – Islanders win best-of-seven, 4-1
- 1985 Patrick Division Semifinal – Islanders win best-of-five, 3-2
- 1986 Patrick Division Semifinal – Capitals win best-of-five, 3-0
- 1987 Patrick Division Semifinal – Islanders win best-of-seven, 4-3
- 1993 Patrick Division Semifinal – Islanders in best-of-seven, 4-2
Younger Caps fans, be advised. Before the Pittsburgh Penguins perpetrated
their version of grief on the Caps, there were the Islanders. The Caps have never beaten the Isles in a
seven-game series. In all three
best-of-seven series the teams played, the Caps won Game 1. They took a three-games-to-one lead in 1987
before losing the series in the most excruciating manner imaginable:
But this will be the first meeting of the clubs in the post
season in 22 years. Of more recent
relevance, the teams met four times this season, each club holding serve twice
on home ice with three of the games decided in extra time:
The series might have been close on the scoreboard, but there
are two things to note in the summary stats.
First, the Islanders have dominated the shots and shot attempts – 28 percent
more shots on goal in the four games, 23 percent more shot attempts. Second, special teams have been kind to both
clubs, at least in terms of their respective power plays, both clubs converting
more than 30 percent of their chances.
On that last point, the Caps suffered a problem consistent with one with
which they had to deal all season – lack of power play opportunities. Despite a better conversion rate than the
Islanders, the Caps lost the special teams battle, 4-3.
In terms of individual scoring, the Caps have the usual
suspects – Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom – leading the list. The Islanders, on the other hand, have spread
things around a bit more. Overall, eight
Islanders scored goals in the four-game season series, while 17 skaters
recorded points. For the Caps, eight
players have goals (a third of the total coming from Ovechkin), and 15 players
have points. What the Islanders have
been able to do, to an extent, is limit Ovechkin’s shots on goal. He had 36 shot attempts in the four games,
but 16 on goal, slightly lower than his 4.88 shots per game for the season
overall.
Goaltending for each club is consistent with their season,
at least in the workload. Braden Holtby
played every minute of the four games for the Caps. Jaroslav Halak and Chad
Johnson split the duties for the Islanders, Halak recording both wins for the Isles,
Johnson taking both losses. The heavy
shot volumes by the Islanders took a toll on Holtby’s goals against average and
save percentage, both among the worst he posted against any Eastern Conference
team this season. Conversely, Halak has
a respectable goals against average, but his .906 save percentage suggests a
weakness at the most important position in a short series.
In terms of the teams’ overall performance this season, here
is how they compare:
Who’s hot?
The Caps were 9-3-1 in their last 13 games of the regular
season. Only five times in those 13
games did they allow more than two goals.
Four of those occurrences came in the four losses, all four times the
Caps falling into a 0-3 deficit.
Who’s not?
The Islanders came limping into the post season. They went 6-8-5 in their last 19 games and
did not win consecutive games at any point in that span of games (four of the
extra time losses came in the Gimmick).
Scoring goals was a challenge. They had a four game losing streak in that run
in which they scored a single goal in each game, and they had a three-game
losing streak in which they scored two goals or fewer.
Random facts to impress your friends and annoy your enemies...
- Getting a lead matters, to a point. The team that scored the first goal won three of the four games in the season series. Only in the last game, when Anders Lee opened the scoring for the Islanders in a 4-3 overtime Caps win, did this not hold true.
- Three times in this series the Islanders held a dominating shot and shot attempt advantage (Games 1, 3, and 4 of the season series). However, all three of those games went to overtime. In the one game in which the Caps held an advantage (Game 2), the Caps won going away, 5-2, scoring the game’s last three goals.
- The Caps enjoyed significant contributions from the blue line offensively over the course of the season. Not so much in the season series against New York, with one notable exception. Of the Caps defensemen likely to play in this series, John Carlson and Mike Green each recorded an assist over the four games. Neither Karl Alzner nor Brooks Orpik recorded a point. On the other hand, Matt Niskanen went 1-4-5 in the four games (Tim Gleason did not appear against the Islanders as a Capital this season).
- Power plays figured heavily in the outcomes of two games in this series. Both Islander wins came in extra time on power plays, when the space available in a 4-on-3 advantage was greater than in 5-on-4 situations in regulation time.
- The Caps outscored the Islanders, 6-2, in the third period of the four games in the season series.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
It is a given that if the stars – Alex Ovechkin and John Tavares – do not
perform to their capabilities, the opponent is likely to advance. But what players for each team that lack that
kind of star power have to step up their game?
New York: Josh Bailey
In the four games against the Caps this season, Josh Bailey
had one assist and was minus-1, despite averaging almost 17 minutes a game. It was a curiously underwhelming performance
given that Bailey finished the season with 15 goals (one below his career best
in 2009-2010) and 41 points (a career high).
He comes into the post season without a goal in his last 11 regular
season games and one in his last 15 contests.
He is 3-6-9, minus-4, in 27 career regular season games against
Washington.
Washington: Mike Green
The Caps did not get much in terms of offense from its
defense against the Islanders this season, with the exception of Matt Niskanen, and that largely the product of a three-assist game in the Caps’ 5-2 win last November
28th). If the Caps can get
more production out of the blue line and soften up the Islanders, the path to
the second round of the playoffs becomes somewhat easier. Green started showing signs of his old
goal-scoring prowess late in the season.
He had five goals in his last 12 regular season games after recording
only five goals in his first 60 games of the season. He does not dominate the ice time he did in
his younger days, but his one power play goal for the season was his lowest
total in any season since his first full year – none in 70 games of the
2006-2007 season. Green is 4-11-15,
minus-2, in 27 career games against New York
In the end…
This series might just boil down to a trade-off between two
questions. Can the Caps dominate special
teams? Can the Islanders dominate the
shot meter? If the Caps can answer the
first question in the affirmative and keep the Islanders from doing the same
with the latter question, they win. If
the reverse is true, if the Islanders dominate the shot meter and keep the Caps
from doing damage on their power play, they will advance.
Where this series tilts is suggested by the season
series. Even when dominating the shot
meter, the Islanders could only manage to drag things out into extra time. When the Caps negated that advantage, they
dispatched the Islanders with room to spare.
Those questions will turn on how the goaltenders can perform
against the other team’s strengths. In
that regard, the Capitals have an advantage.
This is not 2010, and this Jaroslav Halak is not that Jaroslav Halak.
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