“It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link of the
chain of destiny can be handled at a time.”
-- Winston Churchill
Tyler Seguin, Jordan Eberle, Jeff Skinner, Derek Stepan,
Marcus Johansson. Those are the five
players who, in their first five seasons ending with last year’s campaign have
appeared in at least 300 career games, recording at least 60 goals and at least
150 points. Oh sure, you could say that
such production on Johansson's part has been achieved mostly as the third guy on a line with Alex
Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, but keep in mind that last season he set a
personal best of 17 even strength goals playing primarily with Troy Brouwer and
Evgeny Kuznetsov at 5-on-5.
Johansson had a number of career bests last seaaon. For the first time in his five-year career he
appeared in all 82 games. Twenty goals
was a personal best. So was 47
points. Encouraged to shoot more, he
recorded a career high 138 shots on goal.
His total shots attempted (253) obliterated his previous best (177 in
each of his first two seasons). He even
had 69 credited hits. Not “Brooks
Orpik-ish,” but it was more than, say, Joel Ward (53 in 82 games).
His production was an ingredient in Caps success last
season, as well. Washington was 12-3-3
in games in which Johansson recorded a goal, 23-9-6 in games in which he
recorded a point. Johansson was also a
very consistent performer last season.
He had at least one goal in each ten-game segment over the course of the
season, and he had five or more points in six of the eight segments.
There was also the matter of effectiveness at the other end
of the ice. Of 115 forwards appearing in
at least 80 games last season, only 12 were on ice for fewer goals than
Johansson (41 in 82 games). Then there
is the notion of playing within the rules.
In the modern era of hockey (post 1967 expansion), only 11 players have
appeared in more than 300 games and recorded 50 or fewer career penalty
minutes. Johansson (345 games, 36 career
penalty minutes) is one of those 11.
Last season, among players recording at least 1,000 minutes of ice time,
Johansson was 12th in minutes of total ice time per penalty minute
charged (10 PIMS in 1,351 minutes).
Fearless’ Take…
Johansson had the best possession numbers of his career in
2014-2015. His Corsi-for percentage at
5-on-5 (53.8) was the first time in five years he finished north of 50 percent. His Corsi-relative at 5-on-5 (plus-2.4) was
also his best in five seasons. Part of
that might have been the overall approach employed by new head coach Barry
Trotz – Johansson’s Corsi-against/60 was the lowest (51.2) by far of his career
(57.7 in 2012-2013; numbers from war-on-ice.com). Still, Johansson
has shown himself to be consistent, responsible at both ends of the ice, and
characterized by modest improvements in his underlying numbers.
Cheerless’ Take…
In his last 40 playoff games, Marcus Johansson has three
goals. That is as many as Jay Beagle has
in 37 career playoff games. It is as
many as Karl Alzner has in his last 18 playoff games. He has only nine points in his last 36
postseason games. That is as many as
Joel Ward had in 14 games last spring.
Is is as many as Calgary rookie Johnny Gaudreau had in 11 games last
spring. The Caps needed – they need –
more out of Johansson in these games than they are getting.
The Big Question… What is Johansson’s upside, and have we
seen it?
In his first five years, Marcus Johansson has averaged 0.54
points per game. In the three seasons in
which he appeared in more than 70 games, he hovered right around that number –
0.58 points per game in 2011-2012, 0.55 points per game in 2013-2014, and 0.57
points per game last season. He will
turn 25 in the first week of October, so there is a line of thinking that says
he is still some time away from reaching the chronological prime of his career.
Some things to think about.
If you compare their first five seasons, T.J. Oshie has better overall
numbers on a per-game basis than Johansson: 0.24 to 0.18 in goals, 0.43 to 0.36
in assists, 0.67 to 0.54 in points. On
the other hand, Johansson’s best season in goals (20) was better than Oshie’s
(19), and his best assist year (36) was better than Oshie’s best (35). And, Oshie’s first five years in the NHL
ended with Oshie at age 26, Johansson at age 24. Then consider two players, both in their numbers
over their first five seasons. Both
played in 345 games. Player A was
61-125-186, minus-15. Player B was
73-118-191, minus-8. Player A is Marcus
Johansson; Player B is Ryan O’Reilly.
You could say O’Reilly has more of an upside (his five year window was
at a younger age than Johansson, and he does have a 28-goal season on his
resume). But Johansson might not be all
that far behind him, either, despite all those favorable linemate assignments
in the early part of his career.
In the end…
Marcus Johansson has had a curious early career. He was the 24th overall pick of
the 2009 entry draft, but he is top-ten in his draft cohort in games played
(345/8th), goals (61/7th), assists (125/5th),
and points (186/5th). Yet, he
seems oddly underappreciated by Capitals Nation. He has a calm demeanor on the ice, not unlike
countryman Nicklas Backstrom, which some might mistake for a lackadaisical approach. He has seemed a bit deferential when playing
with more accomplished linemates Ovechkin and Backstrom, but he took guidance
to heart this past season and shot more, with pleasant results. His body of work was enough for an arbitrator
to award him a one-year, $3.75 million contract. On an average value basis It is equivalent to
the contract of Jakob Silfverberg, a player with similar per-game offensive
production in his first three years (the contract circumstances differ;
Silfverberg’s contact is a four-year deal), and Anders Lee, whose four-year
deal that starts this year is for a player who stepped up with a 25-goal season
last year for the New York Islanders.
Johansson’s compensation appears reasonable given the
average annual value neighborhood in which he resides (based on numbers from
generalfanager.com). As the season approaches that affords
Johansson an opportunity to raise his value, there is the matter of just where
he is going to play. The default
position would seem to be on the left side on the second line. He could fill in at center on the third line
if Nicklas Backstrom does not open the season ready to play, although head
coach Barry Trotz said that Johansson will open training camp at wing.
Wherever he opens the regular season – or closes it, for that matter – improving his
performance in the postseason is going to be a critical element in the Caps’
ability to go deeper than we have seen in recent years. In that sense, even looking ahead to what
next summer might bring in terms of a new contract might be a bit too far on
the horizon. Johansson has links in his
career chain to handle first.
Projection: 80 games, 19-30-49,
plus-7
Photo: Richard Wolowicz/Getty Images North America
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