T.J. Oshie
“Change in all things is sweet.”
-- Aristotle
“The Champ” is a 1979 remake of a 1931 film about an
alcoholic boxer who reforms for the sake of his young son. In the 1979 telling of the story, the
alcoholic boxer is a former champion scraping together a living to support his
young son, “T.J.” It was a movie – and
the young boy a character – that appealed to a young mother in Washington
state. “T.J.” became the name by which
her son – Timothy Leif Oshie – would be known.
T.J. grew up to be a quite a hockey player – a high-school
standout and a three-year star for the University of North Dakota. He would be the 24th overall pick of the 2005
NHL entry draft, selected by the St. Louis Blues, the only professional hockey
organization for which he would play, the last seven of which were spent
playing for the parent club in St. Louis.
In those seven seasons in St. Louis, Oshie appeared in 443
regular season games, tied for 22nd in Blues franchise history. His 110 goals ranks 23rd in Blues history,
and his 310 points ranks 16th. He is one
of a dozen players in Blues history to record at least 100 goals and at least
200 assists. While it is a considerable
body of work, Oshie, who will turn 29 in December, is still in the prime of his
career.
Despite that body of work, Oshie was the subject of trade
rumors, part of a general feeling that a shakeup was needed for the club at the
end of the 2014-2015 season as well as a need to get more size into the lineup. It was not an especially spectacular season
for Oshie, either by his career standards or in the context of his rankings
with the club. His 19 goals slipped a
bit from his career high (21) set the previous year, as did his 55 points (five
less than his career high in 2013-2014).
He was fifth on last year’s Blues team in goals and points.
He was, however, a versatile player, the only Blues forward
to average at least 15 minutes of even strength ice time, two minutes of power
play ice time, and a minute of penalty killing time per game. He also had a knack for success in the
freestyle competition. His 4-for-11
performance in the shootout was not his best over his seven-year career (he
finished tied for 18th in goals scored and tied for 12th (minimum: 10 attempts)
in shooting percentage), but it continued a remarkable run. Among players with at least 30 attempts over
the last seven seasons, Oshie is fourth in goals (31) and second in shooting
percentage (52.5 percent).
While the shootout statistics carry less weight going
forward with changes in the overtime format for 2015-2016, there was enough in
Oshie’s game to make him attractive to a club in similar circumstances. The Blues found that club in the Washington
Capitals, whose recent playoff history of “one and done” or “two and through”
was jeopardizing their chances of winning a championship in the Alex
Ovechkin/Nicklas Backstrom era of the club.
The Caps traded Troy Brouwer, goaltending prospect Pheonix Copley, and a
2016 third-round draft pick to the Blues for Oshie, who has two more years on
his current contract with a $4.5 million average annual value.
Fearless’ Take…
Scoring line forwards are supposed to be difference makers,
and Oshie was that for the Blues last season.
St. Louis was 14-3-0 when Oshie scored a goal (37-21-7 when he did not),
26-6-1 when he recorded a point (25-18-6 when he did not). As a possession player, Oshie has never been
below 50 percent, Corsi-for at even strength, in any of his seven seasons. He was over 53 percent in close-score
situations in four of his seven seasons and never below 49 percent (numbers
from war-on-ice.com).
Cheerless’ Take…
Since 2009, when he made his first appearance for the Blues
in the postseason, Oshie is 11th in points per game for the club (minimum: 15 games), behind
the decent, if unspectacular, Vladimir Sobotka, and Chris Porter, who has a
grand total of 27 career points in 173 regular season games. Among players appearing in at least 15
postseason games over that span, only Barrett Jackman (minus-17) had a worse
plus-minus for the Blues than Oshie (minus-12).
It would be fair to think Oshie’s playoff performance left something to
be desired.
The Big Question… Will he be “TJFO?”
Folks who followed Caps fans reactions to Troy "TFB" Brouwer’s
misfirings in the postseason will likely figure out what “TJFO” means in short
order. Whether Oshie plays on the top
line with Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin, or on the second line with
Evgeny Kuznetsov and (perhaps) Marcus Johansson, it seems possible, if not
likely, that he will approach career bests in his offensive numbers (21-39-60,
plus-19, in 2013-2014). That is not why
he is a Capital. Well, not the only
reason.
Oshie is expected to perform better in the postseason than
he has to date (5-4-9, minus-12, in 30 career playoff games), or Capitals right wingers of recent vintage, for that matter. Last season the Caps got four goals out of
right wingers in 14 post season games, three of them from the since departed
Joel Ward. In 2013 the Caps got three
goals from right wings in seven games.
In 2012 it was five in 14 games. They
year before that, it was three in nine games.
You get the idea.
In the end…
The Capitals have not had as much production out of the
right wing position as they might have liked in recent years (the Alex Ovechkin
right wing experiment notwithstanding), particularly in the postseason. Joel Ward departed in free agency, to be
replaced by Justin Williams, and Troy Brouwer was sent to St. Louis for
Oshie. The acquisitions of Williams and
Oshie reflect a certain amount of urgency to make a deep postseason run while Ovechkin
and Nicklas Backstrom are still in their prime.
The Oshie for Brouwer trade can be one of those win-win
kinds of deals. St. Louis felt the need
to add some size to their forward squad, while the Caps felt the need to add a
deeper skill set on the right side. Last
season Oshie spent the vast majority of his 5-on-5 ice time (1,038 minutes) with
David Backes (746 minutes) and Alexander Steen (565 minutes), two very good
players (numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com). They helped Oshie to 16 even
strength goals and 26 even strength assists.
In Washington he could start the season with Evgeny Kuznetsov and Alex
Ovechkin on the top line, with Nicklas Backstrom sliding into the middle when
he is ready to go. It could be an
upgrade in terms of production opportunities, but the object of the exercise is
ultimately how Oshie and his linemates mesh in the postseason. Success would make the change of scenery this
summer sweet, indeed, and give Oshie the opportunity to fashion a happier
ending as “The Champ.”
Projection: 80 games, 21-39-60, plus-14
Photo: Winslow Townson, USA TODAY Sports
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