The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals, fresh off of their 6-2 dismantling
of the Calgary Flames, head to Vancouver to face the Canucks on Thursday night
in the middle game of their three-game road trip. Washington brings a three-game winning streak
into this contest, outscoring opponents by a 14-4 margin in the process, while
Vancouver enters the game on a two-game losing streak (one in overtime) after
winning three of their first four games of the season.
Unlike the Capitals, who have been scoring at a smart pace
so far as the top-scoring team in the league at 3.80 goals per game (through
Tuesday’s games), Vancouver has been struggling to light the lamp. The Canucks come into this game ranked 18th
in scoring offense (2.50 goals per game) and have just ten goals scored in
their last five games.
At an individual level, part of the problem in the offensive
end is the un-Sedin like way the Sedin brothers are playing. They came into this season with a spooky
similarity in their career numbers.
Henrik was 211-704-915 in 1,092 career games (0.84 points per game),
while brother Daniel came into the season 327-554-881 in 1,061 games (0.83
points per game). Through six games this
season, their paths have diverged a bit.
Daniel is 2-2-4, plus-3 through six games, while Henrik is 1-1-2,
plus-4. Neither have a power play point
despite each averaging more than three minutes per game on the man advantage,
tops among Vancouver forwards. Both have
had their success against the Caps, Henrik going 2-9-11, plus-4 in 15 career
games against the Caps, Daniel going 7-5-12, plus-4 in 14 games against
Washington.
Bo Horvat was taken as the ninth overall pick by the Canucks
in the 2013 entry draft. He made the
jump to the NHL last season for Vancouver, appearing in 68 games and finishing
the season 13-12-25. He added another
goal and three assists in the postseason and finished 11th in voting
for the Calder Trophy for top rookie. He is off to something of a slow start this
season with just one goal to account for his point production, despite
averaging almost five more minutes of ice time per game (16:55) than he
averaged last season (12:16). He had an
assist in his only career appearance against the Caps last season.
The Caps need no introduction to goalie Ryan Miller. In 30 career games against Washington, Miller
is 17-12-0, 2.50, .916, with three shutouts.
If anything, he has been better in a Vancouver uniform than as a Buffalo
Sabre or a St. Louis Blue. In two
seasons with Vancouver, Miller is 4-1-0 in five appearances with a 1.75 goals
against average and a .926 save percentage.
He has appeared in each of the Canucks’ first six games this season, and
allowed two or fewer goals in four of those appearances. Overall he is 3-1-2, 1.80, .935, with one
shutout.
Here is how the two teams stack up against each other to
date:
1. About that
Vancouver power play. At the moment it does
not seem to have sufficient wattage to power an appliance bulb. The Canucks are 28th in a 30-team league on
their 1-for-20 (5.0 percent) effort so far.
Their 1-for-30 shooting on the power play (3.3 percent) is anemic, and
really… Bo Horvat (his only goal of any kind for the season) from Sven
Baertschi and Ben Hutton? That’s your
power play goal?
2. Vancouver has not done well early in games. They scored first just twice in six games and
took a lead into the first intermission once.
3. On the other hand,
the Canucks have been tight in the defensive end late in games. Only the Montreal Canadiens have allowed
fewer third period goals (1) than the two allowed by Vancouver.
4. Three players
currently with the Canucks have appeared in more than 600 games with the
team. There are, of course, the Sedin
brothers. The third is Alexandre
Burrows, who has played each of his 694 career games in Vancouver. He is one of 14
players in 45 years of franchise history to record at least 170 goals and 170
assists (he has 176 of the former, 170 of the latter). Oddly enough, the Capitals are the only team
in the NHL against which he has never scored a goal. He has one assist in ten career games against
Washington.
5. Vancouver might
have a winning record at 3-1-2, but they are not doing it on the basis of their
possession numbers. The Canucks rank 26th
in the league in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (46.0). It is better in close score situations, but
not by a lot. At 48.4 percent in such
situations, Vancouver ranks 21st (numbers from war-on-ice.com)
1. The Capitals are
one of four teams having two defensemen with four or more points. John Carlson (2-4-6) and Matt Niskanen
(2-2-4) are the Caps’ representatives on that list. Washington, the Dallas Stars, and the Ottawa
Senators are the only teams in the league with four players having played in
four or more games and averaging at least a point per game. For the Caps, that foursome is: Alex
Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson, and T.J. Oshie.
2. Last year through
five games Tom Wilson had 11 penalty minutes on his record. Through five games this season: none.
3. Only seven teams
have allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 than the Caps (8). One of them happens to be Vancouver (7).
4. If you are going
to be awarded a power play, it is good for possession to win draws and not
spend precious time chasing down the puck.
The Caps, who have the league’s third-best power play (31.3 percent)
have won 60 percent of their man-advantage faceoffs (18-for-30).
5. Washington is now
fourth in the league in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (53.6 percent). They are not quite as highly-ranked in close
score situations (54.6/seventh). They
are, however, strong early – 56.0 percent in the first period, 54.4 percent in
the second period (all numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Vancouver: Brandon Sutter
Eight years ago this past summer, Brandon Sutter was
climbing the stair to the stage as the 11th over all pick of the
draft, taken by the Carolina Hurricanes.
Now in his eighth NHL season, Sutter is on his third team and his first
season with the Vancouver Canucks. Last
season, with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Sutter tied a career high in goals with
21, fourth on the team. Perhaps the
Penguins thought it was wise to trade him at the top of his game, because Sutter
was sent to Vancouver along with a third-round draft pick in 2016 for Nick
Bonino, Adam Clendening, and a second-round pick in 2016. The early returns of Sutter are decent, he is
2-3-5, plus-4, in six games. They might
be better with a bit more consistency.
Sutter has been something of an all-or-nothing player at the offensive
end with two multi-point games (1-1-2 in the opener against Calgary and 1-2-3
against St. Louis last Friday) nd four games without a point. He already has 31 career games against the
Caps, the most he has played against any team, going 3-6-9, plus-5.
Washington: John Carlson
John Carlson is still just 25 years old, but he appears to
be taking the next step on his climb into the elite category of defensemen in
the NHL. Five games into the season he
is tied for second in scoring among defensemen (2-4-6) and is tied for first in
goals (2). In his last 82 games he is
14-43-57, plus-14. Over the last two
seasons he is fourth in points/60 minutes at 5-on-5 among 140 defensemen
playing at least 1,000 5-on-5 minutes (numbers from war-on-ice.com). If there is a place where he could stand some
further improvement, it might be in his possession numbers. In that same group of 140 defensemen, Carlson
ranks 52nd in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (51.8). But even here there is a good side. In close score situations, Carlson ranks 13th
in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (50.4).
In six career games against the Canucks, Carlson is 2-4-6, plus-1.
In the end…
It says in the media guide that the Caps hold a 40-39-9-1
edge in the all-time series against Vancouver.
Unfortunately, Washington is only 16-22-5-1 in Vancouver and has lost
six consecutive games there (0-5-1).
Theiir last win in Vancouver was back on Valentine’s Day 2001, a 4-3 win
in overtime on a goal (his second of the game) by Adam Oates. It was part of a 22-game run in which the
Caps went 17-1-2-1.
The Caps head into Vancouver on a bit of a hot streak. Not hot like in 2001, but four wins in five
tries is something nice to start the season.
To win this game the Caps would seem to need to keep the Vancouver power
play from waking up, and to find a way to solve Ryan Miller when they have the
man-advantage. Sounds as good as any way
for the Caps to win.
Capitals 3 – Canucks 2
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