“When I have reached a summit, I leave it with great
reluctance, unless it is to reach for another, higher one.”
-- Gustav Mahler
Maybe it’s the…turkey.
Braden Holtby has appeared in 178 regular season games in his five-year
career. He really has two different performance
profiles, separated by, of all things, Thanksgiving. In 41 career games before Turkey Day, Holtby
is 19-15-5, 2.65, .914, with two shutouts.
After the bird, stuffing, cranberries, and pumpkin pie, he is 82-36-13,
2.38, .923, with 18 shutouts.
Things were not much different in 2014-2015. Before Thanksgiving, Holtby was 7-5-3, 2.28,
.915, with one shutout. He did not win
more than two consecutive decisions in 16 appearances. After Thanksgiving was another story. Holtby
was 34-15-7, 2.20, .925, with eight shutouts, and seven times in his 56
appearances he had three consecutive wins.
It started with his going on a tear in December. After going 1-2-0 in three appearances after
Thanksgiving, Holtby had a 19-appearance span, from December 4th
through January 14th, in which he went 14-1-4, 1.88, .938, with three
shutouts, one of those wins being a 33-save effort in the Caps’ 3-2 win over the
Chicago Blackhawks in the Winter Classic at Nationals Park. Only twice in his last 54 appearances of the
season did Holtby lose consecutive games in regulation, losing three in a row, February
22-27, then losing consecutive games in regulation, March 11-13.
Holtby’s 2014-2015 season was one that Caps fans might have
drawn up, if not anticipated. He
struggled some early, perhaps owing to a new goaltending coach, Mitch
Korn. However, the light came on over
Holtby’s head in terms of what wisdom Korn was imparting after that sluggish start, and coupled with his
own natural development as a still-young goaltender, he pieced together one of
the best seasons by any goaltender in 2014-2015. He finished among the top netminders in the
league in a variety of categories:
- Games: 73 (1st)
- Minutes: 4,247 (1st)
- Wins: 41 (T-2nd)
- Goals Against Average: 2.22 (5th)
- Save Percentage: .923 (8th)
- Shutouts: 9 (T-2nd)
- Save Percentage, even strength: .929 (10th; minimum: 41 games)
- Save Percentage, shorthanded: .889 (8th, minimum: 41 games)
It was a season that was eerily similar to the season Olaf
Kolzig had for the Caps in 1999-2000, his Vezina Trophy-winning year:
It was also a season in which Holbty set or nearly set a number
of club records:
- Games: 73 (T-1st, Kolzig 1999-2000)
- Wins: 41 (T-1st, Kolzig 1999-2000)
- Minutes: 4,247 (3rd)
- Goals Against Average: 2.22 (2nd, minimum 50 games)
- Save Percentage: .923 (1st, minimum 50 games)
- Shutouts: 9 (T-1st, Carey 1995-1996)
In putting together his season, Holtby became just the third
goaltender since the 2004-2005 lockout to appear in at least 70 games, post a
goals against average of less than 2.25, finish with a save percentage of at
least .920, and record nine or more shutouts (Miikka Kiprusoff in 2005-2006 and
Martin Brodeur in 2006-2007 were the others).
Fearless’ Take…
Best goals against (1.71), best save percentage (.944),
second best even strength save percentage (.943), best shorthanded save
percentage (.947). And still, with all
that, Holtby still finished just 6-7 in the post season last spring. He is the only goaltender in the post
2005-2006 era to have appeared in at least 20 postseason games, posted a goals
against average of less than 2.00 (1.92) and a save percentage of better than
.930 (.936). And, he has two shutouts on
top of that. And still, his win-loss record is
16-18.
And if anything, his second round performances have been better than
his first round games. In first round playoff
games, Holtby is 10-10, 1.97, .935, with one shutout. In second round games he is 6-8, 1.85, .937,
with one shutout. The Hockey Gods owe
Braden Holtby.
Cheerless’ Take…
As long as we’re talkin’ playoffs, cuz, maybe what the
Hockey Gods owe is for the Caps to close out series in five or fewer
games. In Games 1-5 across five postseason
series, Holtby is 13-11, 1.78, .941, with two shutouts. In Games 6 and 7 over those same five
postseason series, he is 3-7, 2.26, .922 and no shutouts. Now, some of that is that stinker of a Game 7
he had in 2013 against the Rangers when he gave up five goals on the first 22
shots he faced in a 5-0 loss. He has
allowed only six goals in four other Games 7.
But it is always something with this team.
The Big Question… Braden Holtby had an elite season, but is
he now an elite goaltender?
If you are going to consider the question of whether Braden
Holtby is an elite goaltender, it might be helpful to consider the path he has
taken and how that compares to those goalies to whom he might be compared. So, let’s take a look at Holtby’s 178-game
career to date and compare that with some who might be widely considered as “elite” and their first 178 games:
Clearly, he is on a path to “elite,” compared to the same
span of games to start his career as others in that category. However, while his early career has been
impressive, especially in the context of the current era, he has been the
unchallenged number one goaltender for only one of his five seasons to
date. Not all of that is his doing, his
2013-2014 season spoiled by ineffective management of his game by then head
coach Adam Oates. Still, there is the
faint notion of “do it one more time” hovering about before he could be firmly called
“elite.”
In the end…
From the time Olaf Kolzig put the Caps on his shoulders and
carried them to the Stanley Cup final in 1998 until Braden Holtby appeared in
his first post season game, six goaltenders manned the crease for the Capitals, including
Kolzig. It was not an especially
noteworthy part of Capitals playoff history.
Combined, the sextet of Kolzig, Cristobal Huet, Semyon Varlamov, Michal
Neuvirth, Jose Theodore, and Craig Billington went 22-32, 2.59, .906, with five
shutouts. They were a combined 12-22 in one-goal games.
Holtby is the goaltender the Caps have not had, at least in
the postseason, since Kolzig’s big year in 1998. There is still the matter of how he does late
in postseason series, but then again, he is tied for 19th among NHL goalies in total
playoff games played since 2005-2006.
The games played statistic is an interesting one for Holtby. It is entirely likely that by the time this
year’s postseason ends, he will be the all-time franchise leader in playoff
games played; Kolzig appeared in 45 games in his career, Holtby has appeared in
34 to date.
You could say that unless he shatters that mark, this will
have been a disappointing season for him and for the Caps. Unlike previous seasons and previous
goaltenders, though, Holtby should not have to bear an outsized share of the
burden to carry the Caps into and through the postseason. The team around him is deep, experienced, and skilled. That – and having a goaltender on the cusp of
“elite” status – are luxuries with which the club and its fans have not been
well acquainted over the history of the franchise.
At an individual level, the talent surrounding him should
allow Holtby to focus on his game, not on having to be the best player on the
ice for the Caps, as he was for many games last season. With that burden lifted, he might find that
he is just as often the best player on the ice and perhaps the best goaltender
in the league. Another summit to reach
for.
Projection: 39-19-6, 2.23, .922, six shutouts
Photo: Joel Auerbach/Getty Images North America
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