The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
For the third time in ten games the Washington Capitals will
do battle with the Tampa Bay Lightning in a contest that will end the regular season
series between the two teams. The Caps
won the first two games of the series and will try to complete the season sweep
at Verizon Center on Friday night.
Not much has changed since we prognostified the contest of
last Saturday, so let’s go with that. One thing to note is that except for the Caps
being able to subdue the Bolts, the teams are still heading along similar
paths. Both teams won both games they
played since they met last weekend, the Caps beating Pittsburgh and Ottawa
(allowing a total of two goals in the process), the Lightning beating Columbus
on Toronto on their respective rinks.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. Tampa Bay is a
resourceful road team. Of the 16 teams
in the Eastern Conference, only Boston (22) and Washington (21) have more
standings points earned in their opponents’ rinks than the Lightning (20)
through Wednesday’s games.
2. Special teams have
been an issue for the Lightning away from Amelie Arena. In 18 road games, their power play has
connected just seven times in 56 opportunities, good for 27th the
league in road power play efficiency.
Their penalty kill is hardly better at 78.6 percent on 44 kills in 56
shorthanded situations (22nd in the league). Tampa Bay’s special teams index on the road
(power play plus penalty kill efficiency) is 91.1, 25th in the
league.
3. Steven Stamkos is
in the midst of a ten-game goal scoring drought, his longest since an 11-game
drought in December 2008, his rookie season.
He is within three games of his career worst streak of games without a
goal – 13, set earlier in that 2008-2009 rookie season. Stamkos has not scored a goal on the road
since November 5th at Buffalo.
He has gone eight road contests without a goal on 16 shots. He has only four shots on goal over his last
five road games, no more than one shot on goal in any of them.
4. Tampa Bay’
strength on the road so far this season is keeping opponents off the
scoreboard. Their 2.28 goals against per
game ranks fourth-best in the league. It
is what allows the Lightning to have the ninth best goal differential on the road
this season (plus-0.17).
5. Possession on the
road has not been so much bad for the Lightning as it has just been mediocre to
just above average. Tampa Bay ranks 14th
in Corsi-for overall at 5-on-5 on the road (48.6), 13th in
score-adjusted Corsi-for (50.1), and ninth in close score (50.0; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. Looking at the
Caps at home, only the New York Rangers have more standings points earned at
home this season (27) than Washington (25).
Only the Dallas Stars have earned more points per home game (1.60) than
the Caps (1.56).
2. Washington has had
very efficient special teams at home, but there is an odd bias to them. The power play is 13-for-50 (26.0 percent),
ranked fourth in efficiency. However,
those 50 opportunities ranks 19th in the league. The opportunity element is even more
pronounced on the other side of special teams.
The Caps are 33-for-40 in penalty killing on home ice (82.5 percent),
ranked 14th in the league. It
is not an especially impressive number or ranking, but the 40 shorthanded
situations faced are the sixth-fewest faced in the league.
3. Alex Ovechkin
likes home cooking. Ten of his 14 goals
have been scored in the friendly confines of Verizon Center. He is tied for sixth in home goals scored
this season. What is more, he comes to
this game on a hot streak on home ice.
He has seven goals in his last 10 games on F Street. And, he has been
active, recording 54 shots on goal in those ten games, finishing with six or
more shots in four of the ten games.
4. The Caps have been
a good, but not overwhelming offensive team on home ice so far. Their 2.94 goals per game ranks tied for
tenth in scoring offense on home ice. It is on the
defensive side where they have been impressive.
Their 2.13 goals per game at Verizon Center is tied for fifth in the league (odd fact, the
Caps are tied in both home scoring offense and defense with Nashville, both
scoring 47 goals in 16 home games and allowing 34 goals). The Caps’ plus-0.81 goal differential on home
ice is tied for fifth best in the league.
5. The Caps are
struggling with their possession numbers at home. Washington ranks 12th in Corsi-for
at 5-on-5 overall on home ice (51.9), 11th in score adjusted
Corsi-for (51.9) and 14th in close score (51.2). They finished below 50 percent overall in eight
of their last 11 home games (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Tampa Bay: Jonathan Marchessault
Jonathan Marchessault has the longest name on the club and
is its smallest player at 174 pounds. He
also has goals in his last two games, the only Lightning player who can make
that claim. An undrafted free agent out
of Cap-Rouge, Quebec (shouldn’t he be a Capital with that home town?), he was
signed by the Columbus Blue Jackets in July 2012, he played in only two games
with the Jackets before he was signed last summer by the Lightning to a
one-year deal. He has shown a knack for
scoring goals, having lit the lamp five times in 19 career games to date, four
of those goals coming in 15 games this season.
He is without a point in two career games against the Caps.
Washington: Jason Chimera
Jason Chimera has become a fixture in Washington since
arriving in trade from the Columbus Blue Jackets in December 2009. And now, he is poised to join an interesting,
if obscure club. His next goal will be
his 70th with the team, and it will make him the sixth player since
the 2005-2006 lockout to post at least 70 goals and at least 100 assists with the Caps. The others are a who’s who of the modern era
of Capitals – Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, Brooks Laich, and
Alexander Semin. He has been in a bit of
a slump lately, going without a goal in his last seven games. The last goal he scored on home ice was
against the Lightning in a 4-2 win on November 27th. Chimera is 7-8-15, plus-3, in 31 career games
against the Lightning.
In the end…
The Caps have two wins in two tries against the Lightning
this season, and the formula has been simple.
Score first (Alex Ovechkin in the first meeting, Jay Beagle in the
second), make the Lightning pay when the Caps are on the power play (3-for-4 in
the first meeting, 1-for-4 in the second), spread the scoring around (nine
players had points in the first game, four shared in the points in the second),
and get good goaltending (Braden Holtby is 2-0-0, 1.50, .957 in the two
meetings). It has been a formula over
the past four weeks, so let’s go with that.
Capitals 3 – Lightning 1
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