The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take their six-game winning streak
west to Winnipeg where they will face the Jets on Saturday afternoon (note:
it’s a 3:00 start). The Capitals will
head into this contest as the hottest team in the league, their six-game
winning streak being the longest active streak among the 30 teams and their
8-1-1 record over their last ten games tied with the Dallas Stars for the best
such current ten-game record.
Winnipeg, on the other hand, is perhaps thankful to be
treading water in recent games. Their
4-3-0 record over their last seven games is a substantial improvement over the
six-game losing streak (0-5-1) that preceded it. It has been enough – barely – to lift the
Jets to .500 for the season (12-12-2).
The Jets have outscored their opponents by a 23-19 margin in
their 4-3-0 run, but their special teams have been ho-hum. The power play is 4-for-23 (17.4 percent),
while the penalty kill is 17-for-23 (73.9 percent).
On an individual level, Caps fans would recognize the
leading scorer in this recent seven-game stretch. Mathieu Perreault is 2-6-8 in his last seven
games. The scoring spurt was a welcome improvement for Perreault, who was
1-10-11 in his first 19 games this season.
As it is, Perreault is on a pace to finish with his best season to date
in points per game (0.73), a statistic he has improved on in each of the last
three seasons (0.44 in 2012-2013, 0.62 in 2013-2014, and 0.66 last
season). Perreault has faced his old
team three times and has a pair of goals in those contests.
Mark Scheifele is tied for the team lead in goals (four)
over this seven-game stretch and has seven points overall. It hasn’t been the case of slow and sure wins
the race with Scheifele, though. He has
three-point games in the first and last games of this span of contests, one
against the Vancouver Canucks in a 4-1 win on November 18th, and
another against the Toronto Maple Leafs in a 6-1 win last Wednesday in Winnipeg’s
most recent game. In six career meetings
with the Caps, Scheifele is 1-2-3, minus-1.
As for goaltending, it has been something of a
challenge. Ondrej Pavelec was limping
along at 5-6-1, 2.82, .908 when he went limping off with a knee injury in a 3-2
win over the Arizona Coyotes on November 21st. Then it was Michael Hutchinson getting the
call, but he hasn’t exactly wowed anyone with a 5-6-1 record of his own,
accompanied by a 3.09 goals against average and a .901 save percentage. Then there is Connor Hellebuyck. He has wins in his first two NHL appearances,
a 14-save effort in a 3-1 win over the Minnesota Wild on November 27th
and a 32-save gem in a 6-1 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs last Wednesday. The odd thing about Hellebuyck is that he has
a pair of one-goal allowed appearances in his first two NHL games when he had
only two such games in ten games with Manitoba in the AHL, one of those being
an overtime loss.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. For the Jets, two
is the magic number, as in “goals allowed.”
Winnipeg is 11-0-0 when allowing two or fewer goals, but when allowing more
than two goals they are 1-12-2.
2. Scoring first is
something unfamiliar to the Jets. No
team has opened the scoring in games fewer times than Winnipeg (eight), and
only three teams – Carolina, Toronto, and Vancover – have fewer wins when
scoring first (five apiece) than the Jets (six).
3. The Jets have a
problem in the first period allowing goals.
No team has allowed more goals in the first 20 minutes than the Jets,
and it is not close. Winnipeg has
allowed 29 first period goals, the Chicago Blackhawks are next in line with 24
first period goals allowed.
4. When the Jets
lose, they often do not make a mystery of it.
Half of their 12 losses in regulation have come by three or more
goals. Only three teams – Calgary (9),
Carolina (9), and Arizona (7) have more such losses than the six by the Jets.
5. Winnipeg is not a
bad possession team. At 5-on-5 they rank 11th in Corsi-for
percentage (51.7). Those numbers do not
differ much in other situations. The
Jets rank tenth in score-adjusted Corsi-for (51.7) and rank tenth in close
score situations (50.8; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. The Caps head to
Winnipeg having allowed more than 30 shots in three consecutive games, the
first time they have done so since allowing more than 30 in four straight
contests in Games 68-71 last season.
2. Goal margins do
not seem to matter to the Caps in individual games. They rank third in winning percentage in
one-goal games (.700), fifth in two-goal games (.800) and fourth in games
decided by three or more goals (.778).
3. Only Carolina has
averaged less penalty time per game (6:24) than the Caps (7:09) this season.
4. Scoring against
the Caps in the long change has been a challenge for opponents. No team has allowed fewer second period goals
than the Caps (12).
5. Those shots
allowed per game creeping up in recent games is part of a larger possession
issue for Washington. They have slipped
to ninth in overall Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (51.9 percent), seventh in
score-adjusted Corsi (52.7), and 12th in close score situations
(50.7; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Winnipeg: Dustin Byfuglien
Since Dustin Byfuglien was traded to the Atlanta Thrashers –
now the Winnipeg Jets – by the Chicago Blackhawks in June 2010, only Erik
Karlsson has more points among defensemen, and only Shea Weber has more goals scored.
He comes into this game with the third highest goal total among defensemen in
the league (seven), trailing only Justin Faulk (eight) and Brent Burns
(nine). He is also on a four-game points
streak (1-4-5), his longest points streak of the season and longest since a
five-game streak a year ago (November 28- December 9, 2014). In 24 career games against Washington,
Byfuglien is 5-8-13, minus-9.
Washington: John Carlson
John Carlson is a top-ten point producer among defensemen in
the NHL, tied for seventh with 18 points through Thursday’s games. However, he
is struggling in his possession numbers.
Among 179 defensemen to have played in at least 200 5-on-5 minutes
through Thursday’s games, Carlson ranks 107th in Corsi-for (49.1; numbers from war-on-ice.com)
and is last among the six Caps defensemen who have appeared in 200 or more
5-on-5 minutes. It translates to a
less-than-satisfying 2.09 goals for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and 2.09 goals
against per 60 minutes. As the minutes
leader on the team (24:11 per game), one hopes those numbers improve. In 23 career games against Winnipeg, Carlson
is 1-6-7, plus-6.
In the end…
The Jets are an odd team, especially at home. They opened the season allowing 17 goals in their first five games at MTS
Centre, but in their last six games on that ice sheet they have allowed just 12
goals. The wild card there is goaltending,
which has been a bit deceiving, at least on home ice. Connor Hellebuyck allowed one goal in his
only appearance on home ice, that coming in the 6-1 win over Toronto in
Winnipeg’s last contest. Michael Hutchinson has only two starts at home since
October and allowed a total of just four goals in those appearances. What might be perceived as a weakness for
Winnipeg – goaltending – might not be such a weakness after all. The Caps should be prepared for a different
team than the one they defeated in Washington ten days ago.
Capitals 3 – Jets 2
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