The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals kick off what might be their most
difficult week of the regular season when they visit the Chicago Blackhawks at
United Center on Sunday afternoon in a nationally televised game. It will be the first of five games the Caps
will play in seven days in their busiest week of the season.
Compounding the matter for the Caps is that they, and the
other 29 teams in the league, are in the final hours before the trading
deadline, when rosters become a bit more uncertain. The Caps have made just one trade as of this
writing, adding defenseman Mike Weber from the Buffalo Sabres for a 2017 third
round draft pick. They also waived long-tenured
forward Brooks Laich in what appears to be a salary-cap management move to
provide some flexibility as the trading deadline nears.
Meanwhile, the defending Stanley Cup champions have been
busy in advance of the deadline. They traded forward Marko Dano and two draft
picks to the Winnipeg Jets for forwards Andrew Ladd and Matt Fraser, and defenseman
Jay Harrison. They also sent forward
Phillip Danault and a second round draft pick in 2018 to the Montreal Canadiens
for forwards Tomas Fleischmann and Dale Weise.
And, they traded defenseman Rob Scuderi to the Los Angeles Kings for
defenseman Christian Ehrhoff.
Ladd is clearly the big-ticket item among the deals so far
for the Blackhawks. Ladd is neither new
to the trading deadline, nor to the Blackhawks.
He was shipped to the Blackhawks by the Carolina Hurricanes for Tuomo
Ruutu at the 2008 trading deadline. In
two-plus seasons with the Blackhawks, Ladd recorded 37 goals and 99 points in
184 games. In his last season in Chicago
– in 2009-2010 – he helped the Blackhawks win their first Stanley Cup since
1961. Now, after five-plus seasons with
the Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets, he returns to Chicago. He arrives on a bit of a hot streak with
goals in each of his last three games, four in all. His 17 goals in 59 games to date (0.29
goals/game) is right in line with his career goal scoring pace (0.27
goals/game). Ladd is 14-18-32, plus-13,
in 41 career games against the Capitals.
Twelve years ago on Saturday, the Capitals traded Robert
Lang to the Detroit Red Wings for a 2004 first round draft pick (that would
become Mike Green), a 2004 fourth round draft pick, and a prospect forward by
the name of Tomas Fleischmann, a second round pick of the Wings in 2002. Fleischmann went on to play 283 games over
six seasons for the Caps before he was traded in November 2010 to the Colorado
Avalanche for defenseman Scott Hannan.
From Colorado, Fleischmann went to Florida, then Anaheim, and this
season to Montreal before arriving in Chicago, his sixth NHL club. He had modest success with the Canadiens this
season, recording ten goals and 20 points in 57 games. He has not been especially productive lately,
though, having just two goals and an assist in his last 23 games. Fleischmann is 5-4-9, minus-4, in 19 career
games against Washington.
One thing that does not seem to change for the Blackhawks is
Corey Crawford in goal. There is a
temptation to think of Crawford as a beneficiary of a talented team in front of
him. He certainly has that, but he has
not exactly been a passenger on the Stanley Cup journey’s either. Over the last four seasons, including this
one, Crawford is one of six goaltenders to appear in at least 100 games, post a
save percentage of at least .920, and record a goals against average of 2.25 or
lower. That is a group that includes
Tuukka Rask, Henrik Lundqvist, Cory Schneider, Carey Price, and Brian
Elliott. Not a bad group. He has not been very effective lately,
though. Since shutting out the St. Louis
Blues on 25 shots in a 2-0 win on January 24th, Crawford is 4-5-1,
3.10, .907 in ten appearances. In six career appearances against the Capitals,
Crawford is 2-3-1, 3.52, .883.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. The Blackhawks are
in a bit of a late-winter funk. Over
their last seven games they are 2-4-1, outscored by opponents by a 23-18 margin.
2. Half of the 16
goals scored by Chicago over their last five games have come on the power
play. Seven of them came over a pair of
games. They went 4-for-7 in a 7-2 win
over the Toronto Maple Leafs on February 15th, and they went 3-for-4
against the New York Rangers in a 5-3 win on February 17th. They are 8-for-16 (50.0 percent) over their
last five games.
3. Good as the power
play has been lately, the penalty kill has been ineffective. The Blackhawks killed all six shorthanded
situations they faced against the Dallas Stars on February 6th, but
in seven games since, they are 11-for-19 (57.9 percent).
4. Patrick Kane has
not gone consecutive games without a point since he was blanked on December 22nd
and 27th. Since then he is
14-20-34 in 26 games. Just to note, Kane
was held without a point in his last game, a 3-1 loss to the Nashville
Predators.
5. Chicago has been a
good, but not especially impressive possession team. They rank 13th in Corsi-for at
5-on-5 overall (50.9 percent) and 12th in score-adjusted Corsi (51.4
percent). Their rankings at home are
hardly different in overall Corsi-for overall (13th/52.1 percent),
but their score-adjusted Corsi-for ranks eighth on home ice (52.2 percent;
numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. The Caps have not
been a dominant power play team lately, but they seem to be shaking off the
slump they had coming out of the All-Star Game break. Over their last nine games they have power
play goals in six of them and are 6-for-32 overall (18.8 percent).
2. The Caps have
played to five consecutive one-goal decisions (4-1-0), their longest streak of
one-goal decisions this season. Ten of
the Caps’ last 12 games were settled by one goal, and the other two decisions –
both of them two-goal victories – featured empty net goals for the final
margin. The Caps are 8-2-0 in those ten one-goal decisions.
3. For a team with as
gaudy a record as the Caps, it is a bit surprising that only ten teams have
taken a lead into the first intermission fewer times. The Caps have won all 18 instances in which
they led after one period, the only team to win all of their games when leading
after 20 minutes.
4. There is no team
in the league with a wider spread between first period and third period goals
scored than the Caps. Washington has
scored just 45 goals in the first periods of games this season (tied with
Arizona for 17th in the league), 80 goals in the third period
(first) for a plus-35 goal spread from first to last period. Buffalo is second with a plus-26.
5. There is one area
that suggests the Caps need to spend some time buttoning things up. In six of their last nine road games they
have allowed more high-quality scoring chances than they have had. They are minus-23 in high-quality scoring
chances in those nine games overall (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless Players to Ponder
Chicago: Artemi Panarin
Artemi Panarin has made it a rout in the rookie scoring
race. He has a three-goal lead on
Detroit’s Dylan Larkin (22 to 19), a ten-assist lead on Arizona’s Max Domi (35 to 25), and
a 15-point lead on Domi (57 to 42). He is tied for
fourth among rookies in power play goals (5) and tied for second in power play
points (15), no small achievement on a veteran team such as Chicago. And, if anyone was thinking he might hit a
rookie “wall” with respect to his performance over a long season, he has not yet reached that
wall. He is 6-6-12 in his last ten
games, including a hat trick in the 5-3 win over the Rangers on February 17th. Panarin has an assist in his only appearance
against the Caps.
Washington: Dmitry Orlov
Dmitry Orlov is thought of as something of a high-risk (in
his own end), high reward (in the offensive zone) player. He has skill, but perhaps not the seasoning
to use those skills as judiciously as a more veteran player might, resulting in
taking chances that can be taken advantage of by opponents. Nevertheless, among 181 league defensemen
playing at least 500 5-on-5 minutes this season, Orlov ranks tenth overall in
Corsi-for/relative (plus-5.47 percent, as per war-on-ice.com). As a third-pair defenseman he might not get a
lot of exposure to opponents with top-end offensive statistics, but it is a
respectable number nonetheless. With
John Carlson on injured reserve, maintaining and improving on that edge is
going to be an important ingredient to the Caps’ success as they approach the
postseason. He has two assists and is a
plus-2 in three career games against Chicago.
In the end…
The theme of this game is that it could be a preview of a
Stanley Cup final. The top road team in
the league (Washington at 21-6-2) will do battle with the second-best home team
(Chicago at 22-8-2). Joel Quenneville,
with 1,438 regular season games coached an 792 wins, will face Barry Trotz,
with 1,338 games coached an 647 wins.
The league’s leading goal scorer (Alex Ovechkin with 40) will face the
league-leading overall scorer (Patrick Kane with 84 points). What the Caps bring to this game is recent
success against the Blackhawks. They
have won the last four contests between the teams, outscoring the Blackhawks
14-5 in the process, and the Caps have wins in seven of their last nine games
against Chicago. Neither team can be
said to be at the top of their game at the moment, but this should be a very
entertaining affair, one that is not merely hyped as a possible Stanley Cup
final preview, but a legitimate one.
Capitals 4 – Blackhawks 3
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