The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals, having wrapped up their three-game
home stand by dropping a 3-2 decision to the New York Rangers on Friday night,
head to Boston to take on the Bruins on Saturday evening.
The Bruins are making what looks like a late-season push to
solidify their standing as a postseason qualifier. Boston comes into this game with four wins in
their last five games and is just two points shy of the Tampa Bay Lightning and
Florida Panthers for the lead in the Atlantic Division.
The Bruins have outscored their opponents by a 16-9 margin
over their last five games, the scoring led by Patrice Bergeron (3-3-6). It is part of a longer run of scoring on
Bergeron’s part; he is 6-5-11, plus-5, in his last ten games and has not had
consecutive games without a point in that span.
Bergeron remains one of the premier faceoff men in the game. He has gone ten straight games with a winning
percentage of 50 percent of better, andhe hasn’t gone consecutive games under
50 percent since late November. Among
players taking at least 500 draws, Bergeron ranks ninth in the league in
overall winning percentage (56.9 percent).
Torey Krug leads the club with five assists in the Bruins’
last five games. He is another player
with a longer span of recent success with points in seven of his last nine
games (0-8-8, plus-7). In his three full
seasons to date he has been a remarkably consistent half-point-a-game
defenseman (0.51/game in 2013-2014, 0.50 last season, and 0.50 this season with
32 points in 64 games). He is 0-1-1,
minus-5, in eight career games against Washington.
Conspicuous by his absence in Bruin scoring over the last
five games is defenseman Zdeno Chara. At
38 years of age, the big guy is clearly slowing down, even if he does remain a
formidable force in his own end. On
offense, though, he is without a point in his last six games, and he has just a
pair of assists in his last ten games.
Chara is 7-19-26, plus-9, in 62 career games against the Caps.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. It has not been
with special teams that the Bruins won four of their last five games. Their power play was 2-for-14 (14.3 percent),
and their penalty kill was 9-for-13 (69.2 percent) for a rather dismal 83.5 on
the special teams index.
2. Three goals for
seems like a threshold of success for the Bruins (it might be for most
teams). They have only three wins in
regulation this season in 26 games when scoring two or fewer goals (6-17-3
overall). They are 30-3-1 when allowing
two or fewer games, so from the Boston point ofview, it might be “first to
‘three’ wins.”
3. The Bruins have a
knack for taking a lead. They scored the
game’s first goal in 40 of their 65 games so far this season. They don’t have
such a knack for holding those leads.
Their 28-11-1 record, while certainly a fine one in those instances, is
the 17th-ranked winning percentage (.700).
4. Boston has the
most efficient power play on home ice in the league (24.5 percent). They do not get as many opportunities to
exploit that advantage as they or their fans might like. Their 98 power play
opportunities at home ranks tied for sixth-fewest in the league.
5. The Bruins are one
of those teams whose 5-on-5 numbers are inconsistent. They have a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5
overall of just 48.5, 19th in the league.
However, their 5-on-5 goal differential of plus-12 ranks sixth (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. If the Caps win
this game, they will become the fourth-winningest team in franchise history,
tied with the 2010-2011 and 1983-1984 editions.
Only a trio of 50-or-more-win teams would be ahead.
2. When Jay Beagle
scored last night to make it a 2-1 game, you knew the Caps were going to win or
at least get a point out of this game.
The Caps were 22-0-4 in games in which Beagle scored a goal over his
career until last night. Now it’s
22-1-4.
3. Alex Ovechkin was
held to one shot on goal last night, just the third time this season he was
held to a single shot on goal in a game (December 3rd versus
Montreal and December 12th versus Tampa Bay).
4. If you dominate
shot attempts at 5-on-5 by an almost 2-to-1 margin (66-38), have a big edge in
scoring chances (31-16), and control the shots on goal (34-23), you are
supposed to win more often than not in this league. The 66 shot attempts against the Rangers last
night was the second highest total posted by the Caps this season (68 versus
Calgary on November 13th).
That PDO of 93.9, though, was the 11th lowest of the season.
5. Two of the Caps’
three highest Corsi-for results at 5-on-5 in a game this season have come at
the expense of the Rangers. On November
3rd they were 65.3 percent to the good, and last night they were
63.5 percent. They lost both games, 3-2
last night and 5-2 in November (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Boston: Ryan Spooner
Folks know the names Zdeno Chara, Brad Marchand, David
Krejci, and Patrice Bergeron. Ryan
Spooner might not be as well known to Caps fans. However, Spooner is second on the club in
assists (32) and fifth in overall scoring (44 points). In this, his first full season with the
Bruins, his 12 goals is far clear of his career high of eight set last season,
and his 44 points is more than his career total coming into this season (29). He has been something of a power play
specialist for the Bruins, ranking second on the team with 16 power play
points, six of them being goals. In five
career games against the Caps, Spooner is 0-1-1, minus-3.
Washington: Philipp Grubauer
If you are trying to identify who might be the best among
the league’s backup netminders, here is a little thought exercise. Among goalies with at least 500 minutes but
fewer than 1,200, how many have goals against averages under 2.25 and save
percentages over .925? The answer? Three.
Jhonas Enroth of the Los Angeles Kings (2.10/.931), Penguins
(1.98/.933), Al Montoya of the Florida Panthers (1.96/.928), and Washington’s
Philipp Grubauer (2.10/.926). He has
been even better of late. In his last
eight appearances totaling 349 minutes of ice time, his goals against average
is 1.72, and his save percentage is .941.
Grubauer has never faced the Bruins.
In the end…
The Caps are a “coin-flip” team at the moment, 3-3-0 in
their last six games, each game settled by one goal. In fact, the last nine games for the Caps
have been settled by one goal. This is
not the dominating team of its first 50 or so games. Perhaps it is a product of it being in that
dry patch of games in late winter when teams are either fighting for a playoff
spot or fighting through the routine of 60 or more games that can cause focus
to wander and intensity to wane. The
Caps, as perhaps one of the latter sort of teams, get a chance to refocus by taking their act to the road for four games,
beginning with this game in Boston. “Road
trip” might be just the tonic for a team such as the Caps.
Capitals 3 – Bruins 2
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