Record: 3-2-0
The Capitals played in two separate back-to-back sets of
games in Week 21, their 11th and 12th such sets this
season. Winning three of the four games
in those back-to-backs should not be considered unusual. Through Week 21, the Caps have a record of
10-2-0 in the first games of those back-to-back sets and a record of 9-3-0 in
the back half of those sets. They swept
the first back-to-back set of the week, against the Pittsburgh Penguins and
Toronto Maple Leafs, their sixth sweep of the season. They have yet to be swept in any back-to-back
with three more sets of such games yet to play in the regular season.
The Caps also have yet to lose consecutive games in
regulation time this season, thanks to their 2-1 overtime win over the Boston
Bruins to end the week. The Caps have
gone 78 games since last losing consecutive games in regulations time, dating
back to March 11th and 13th of last season when they lost
decisions to the New York Rangers and Dallas Stars in Games 68 and 69 of the
2014-2015 season.
By the end of Week 21 the Caps had 48 wins and 100 points,
the earliest the Caps have ever reached either number. The hit the 100 point mark in the 2009-2010
season in Game 65 and the 48-win mark in Game 72 of that same season.
Offense: 2.40/game
(season: 3.22 /game; rank: 1st)
In a way, it was the Matt Niskanen Show on offense in Week
21. The defenseman scored the
game-winning goals in the Caps’ wins over the Maple Leafs and the Bruins, and
his power play drive late in the third period against the Penguins became the
game-winning primary assist when T.J. Oshie got a piece of it as it sailed by
for the game-winning goal.
The Caps did not have a lot of volume on offense this week,
only 12 goals scored in the five games, but they did have balance. Nine different players had goals for the
week. In addition to Niskanen, Evgeny
Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie had a pair.
There were 14 different players recording points, Oshie (2-3-5) and
Nicklas Backstrom (0-5-5) leading the way.
What they lacked was accuracy. Even though the Caps finished the week with
four games with 30 or more shots on goal, they managed just the 12 goals. With a total of 154 shots on goal for the
week, they had only a 7.8 percent shooting percentage.
Defense: 2.20/game (season: 2.29 /game; rank: 3rd)
The Caps did a lot of things right on defense in a week in
which they faced three top-ten offenses and four of the top-12 teams in scoring
offense. That the Caps lost two of three
games to those top-ten offenses was not a product of leaky defense. They held all three of those teams – the Chicago Blackhawks (5th
in scoring offense), New York Rangers (8th), and Boston Bruins (3rd)
to a total of 80 shots on goal in the three games, and they held the 12th-ranked
Penguins – the top team in the league in shots on goal per game (32.7) – to 30
shots.
Overall, the Caps won the 5-on-5 battle for the week,
finishing with a combined Corsi-for of 51.5 percent. That, however, might not be as good as it
looks. Washington finished under 50
percent in two games (against Toronto and Boston) and split the shot attempts
for the game against Chicago. The game
against the Rangers bordered on the bizarre.
After splitting the 5-on-5 shot attempts in the first period (13-13),
after which the Rangers led, 2-0, the Caps out-attempted the Rangers at 5-on-5
by a 53-25 margin over the rest of the contest but managed only a pair of goals
in dropping a 3-2 decision (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
If anyone had a difficult week for the Caps on the defensive
side, it might have been Brooks Orpik, who was on ice for six of the 11 goals
against, including both power play goals against.
Goaltending: 2.20 /.915 (season: 2.19 / .924 / 2 shutouts)
It was a good, not great week, and in what is becoming a bit
of a concern, the performance was quite different between the Caps’ netminders,
and not in a good way. Braden Holtby had
a difficult week. In three appearances
he was 1-2-0, 2.71, .895. Breaking it
down by period did not make it look any better.
He stopped 23 of 27 first period shots in the three game he played (.852
save percentage), and his third periods were largely saved by very low shot
volumes (12 saves on 14 shots/.857). It
is part of a longer rut in which he finds himself. In his last 18 appearances, he has a 12-4-1
record, but his goals against average is 2.96, and his save percentage is .899.
At the other end, Philipp Grubauer had a fine week. In his two appearances, both of them in the
second of back-to-back games, he won both games, stopping 50 of 53 shots (.943
save percentage). He almost
single-handedly kept the Caps in their game against Boston to close the week
when he stopped seven shots in a 5-on-3 Bruin power play that lasted 1:49. In his last 12 appearances, he is 6-3-0,
1.60, .946.
Power Play: 5-for-17 / 29.4 percent (season: 23.8 percent;
rank: 2nd)
For the first time in quite some time, the Caps did not
finish a week with the league’s top power play (Week 14, in fact). This was despite the Caps having their most
effective power play since Week 15, when they were 4-for-6. They had power play goals in the first four
games of the week, extending their streak of games with at least one power play
goals to five, their longest streak of games with power play goals for the
season, and their longest since they had a five-game streak last March 1-11.
The Caps were a reasonably efficient team in terms of shots
recorded on the power play, finishing the week with 22 shots on goal in 24:02
of power play time 0.92 shots per minute).
On an individual level, Alex Ovechkin led the club in shots on goal,
which is not surprising. His share,
however (six of the 22 shots on goal) might not have been as high as his usual
output. And, he did not have a power
play shot on goal against either Toronto or the Rangers, nor did he have a
power play goal in Week 21. He has gone
five games without a power play goal.
Penalty Killing: 15-for-17 / 88.2 percent (season: 84.5
percent; rank: 4th)
Week 21 was a good week for the Caps. It was, in fact, the best week the Caps have
had this season when facing more than ten shorthanded situations (Week 18:
17-for-20/85.0 percent). Then again,
perhaps it should have been. The Caps
faced two top-ten teams on the power play (Chicago, ranked third at the end of
the week, and Boston, ranked ninth), but they faced two bottom-ten teams, too
(Toronto, ranked 30th, and the Rangers, ranked 21st). In-between they faced the 17th-ranked
team in the Penguins.
The Caps did a good job of holding down shots over the first
four games of the week, allowing only 13 shots in 12 shorthanded situations
over 19:28 of ice time (0.67 shots per minute).
The Caps might have saved their best for last, though, when they shutout
the Bruins – the number three team in the league on the power play – on nine
shots on five power plays, including seven shots on goal on a 5-on-3 power play
that lasted 1:49. That might have been a
product of the old adage that your goaltender often has to be your best penalty
killer. Philipp Grubauer was that on Saturday against Boston.
Faceoffs: 147-for-275 / 53.5 percent (season: 49.9% / rank:
17th)
It was a good week for the Caps in the faceoff circle. They surpassed 50 percent in three of the
five games, and they were better than 50 percent in the offensive and neutral
zones for the week. The defensive end
draws were something of a problem, the Caps failing to do better than 50
percent in any of the five games.
Of the six Caps to take at least ten draws for the week,
four of them finished over 50 percent.
Nicklas Backstrom took about a third of the total faceoffs for the week,
going 53-for-93 (57.0 percent). Evgeny
Kuznetsov took another 55 draws, winning 32 of them for a 58.2 percent
result. Jay Beagle returned to action,
but one of the league’s best faceoff men is being eased back into that role. He
took just 15 draws for the week, winning eight (53.3 percent). With Mike Richards on that fourth line with
Beagle (he was 27-for-59 for the week), the Caps have the luxury of two
experienced players in that role on that line.
Goals by Period:
Slow starts have been a problem for the Caps for a while
now, and it carried over into Week 21.
Washington allowed the first goal of the game three times this past
week. The Caps won two of the games
(against Pittsburgh and Boston), but this is a trend that needs to be
addressed. The Caps finished the week
with a minus-2 in goals for and against in the first periods of games and are
now a minus-1 for the season.
As they have done all season, the Caps were better in the
second and third periods of games, going plus-2 and even, respectively, for the
week. Their plus-27 in the second period
is better than the goal differential of 27 other teams (not including credit
for shootout goals). Their plus-32 in
the third period is better than the total goal differential of every other team
in the league. That is all very nice,
but when the competition is stiffer in the postseason, can the Caps count on
their ability to grind teams down in the last 40 minutes as they have done this
season?
In the end…
Five games, five one-goal decisions. Only four teams have played games to more
one-goal decisions than the Caps (34), and no team has a better winning
percentage in those games (24-6-4/.706).
If you think this a good thing, consider this. A team’s record in one-goal games might not be a determining
factor in postseason success, but only one team since the 2004-2005 lockout has
had the best winning percentage in one-goal games and gone on to win the
Stanley Cup. The Carolina Hurricanes of
2005-2006 (28-5-8) was the only team to do it.
There is more to this point. Two
teams that led the league in one-goal game winning percentage over the last ten
seasons did not qualify for the postseason, and four other teams lost in the
first round of the playoffs. Teams
finishing with the best winning percentage in one-goal games over that span won
a total of nine playoff series, the Hurricanes winning four them on their way
to the Cup in 2006.
The Caps might be a different case, and that is because they
have been such a dominating team, whatever the goal margin. They are 9-2 in games settled by two goals,
second in the league in winning percentage (to Anaheim), and they are tied for
first in winning percentage in games settled by three or more goals (with Tampa
Bay).
The Caps had a good week in Week 21, a history-making one for the franchise,
in fact. But that does not obscure the
fact that there are some things that bear watching over the next few weeks.
Their slow starts, dependence on one-goal victory margins, and Braden
Holtby’s dip in the road are among them.
Three Stars:
- First Star: Matt Niskanen (2-1-3, even, 2 GWG, 25:07 in average ice time, 13 credited hits, 10 blocked shots)
- Second Star: Philipp Grubauer (2-0-0, 1.47, .943, 15 saves on 15 shots faced on the power play)
- Third Star: T.J. Oshie (2-3-5, minus-1, 2 PPG, 3 PPA, 11 shots on goal)
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