The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
Well, we are at the end of it. The journey that started last October ends
where it began, on the ice at Verizon Center where the Washington Capitals will
host the Anaheim Ducks in a game that was postponed from January when the
region was buried in snow from Winter Storm Jonas.
Washington comes into this game with few things left on the
checklist to check off. They can set a
franchise record of 122 standings points with a win, and if that win is
recorded by goalie Braden Holtby, he will hold the record for most wins in a
season by a goaltender. The Ducks,
meanwhile, have a bit more to reach for – the top seed in the Pacific
Division. If the Ducks capture two
points, they will pass the Los Angeles Kings in the division and face the
Nashville Predators in the first round of the playoffs instead of the San Jose
Sharks.
The Ducks are stumbling a bit coming into this game with a
2-2-1 record over their last five games.
Scoring has been an issue with only 12 goals in those five games, five
of them coming in a 5-3 win over the Colorado Avalanche in the Ducks’ last
game, played on Saturday night in Denver.
What the Ducks have been lacking is a certain star power in
their offensive game. Ryan Getzlaf has a
goal and an assist over the last five games, and until Corey Perry recorded
three assists against Colorado on Saturday night, he has not had a multi-point
game since March 3rd (5-7-12 in his last 18 games). The Ducks are led in goals over the last five
games by Ryan Kesler (three), giving him his third straight 20-goal season and
eight of his career. Kesler has been
quite the road warrior lately, going 3-11-14 in his last 13 road games. In 11 career games against the Caps, Kesler
is 3-6-9, plus-2.
Jakov Silfverberg is tied with Kesler for the team lead in
points over the last five games (2-3-5).
With two goals against Colorado on Saturday, he hit the 20-goal mark for
the first time in his four-year career and tied his career-best in points (39)
set last season. What he does not yet
have that he had in each of his first three seasons is at least one shorthanded
goal (we’ll be pulling for him to miss a fourth season), but he does have
something he did not have in any of his first three season, an overtime goal,
scored in a 3-2 win over Winnipeg on March 20th. Silfverberg is 1-2-3, even, in eight career
games against the Caps.
With John Gibson having appeared in the last seven games for
the Ducks, it could be Frederik Andersen getting the nod in goal for the Ducks
in the back half of their weekend road back-to-back. Andersen last appeared in a game on March 30th,
when he logged 11 minutes and change in the second period of an 8-3 win over
the Calgary Flames. It was an odd
circumstance, Andersen coming into the game after Gibson was shaken up in a collision
with teammate defenseman Hampus Lindholm.
Andersen probably wanted a do-over after allowing three goals on five
shots and yielding to Gibson in the third period. In his last three appearances dating back to
March 24th he has allowed 12 goals on 64 shots (.813 save
percentage). He has never faced the
Capitals.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. Anaheim leads the
NHL in both power play (23.4 percent) and penalty kill (87.1 percent), the
power play even better on the road – 24.8 percent.
2. You would not
expect a 100-point team to have a poor record when scoring first, but the Ducks
can be caught when they get the first goal.
They rank just 18th in winning percentage (.660/33-7-10), and
their ten overtime losses when scoring is most in the league. Their 50 instances of scoring first is second
most in the league, behind Chicago (53, with a record of 41-6-6).
3. Despite scoring
first 50 times this season, the Ducks do not often lead at the first
intermission, and when they do they are not especially successful, at least in
the context of league rankings. Anaheim
has taken a lead into the first intermission 33 times and has a record of
23-4-6, a winning percentage of .697 that ranks tied for 22nd in the
leagtue.
4. Anaheim does not
work or play well with others. Their 328
minor penalties is third most in the league.
If they take three against the Caps, they will jump into second place
over the Winnipeg Jets.
5. Anaheim is the
fifth-best possession team in the league, as measured in Corsi-for percent at
5-on-5 (52.4). They are also fifth in
that measure in road games (51.1 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. Let’s look at a
few milestones that can be reached for the Caps in Game 82. With three points, Evgeny Kuznetsov would
finish the season with 80 points. He
would become the fourth Capital to hit that mark since the 2004-2005 lockout,
joining Alex Ovechkin (seven times), Nicklas Backstrom (twice), and Alexander
Semin for the club.
2. John Carlson and
Andre Burakovsky are within striking distance of 40-point seasons, Carlson
needing one point and Burakovsky needing two.
If both make it, the Caps would finish the season with nine players with
40 or more points. Compare that to last
season when the Caps had six such players.
3. Kuznetsov is
currently at plus-25. No Capital has finished a season at plus-25 or better
since the 2010 season when six players topped that mark.
4. Alex Ovechkin
stands at 19 power play goals. If he
gets one more he will have his fifth 20-power play goal season, tying Brett
Hull for most over the last 40 years.
5. The Caps have an
odd relationship of Corsi-for to scoring on home ice. Their Corsi-for at 5-on-5 ranks just 15th
in the league (51.7 percent), but their goal differential of plus-22 at fives
on home ice ranks fourth in the league (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Anaheim: Bruce
Boudreau
OK, he is not a player, but Bruce Boudreau is about to wrap
up a remarkable regular season. After
the Ducks stumbled out of the gate with an awful October (1-7-2), the “Bruce
Watch” began anticipating his firing as head coach. The end of October would be the low-water
mark for the club. They slowly and
methodically resurrected their season, going 44-18-9 since then as they come to
Washington. Boudreau will finish the
season with a points percentage over .600 for the eighth time in nine NHL
seasons, the only season he missed it being the one in which he was fired by the
Caps and hired by the Ducks (39-32-9 overall, a .544 points percentage). Boudreau is 3-1-1 in games coached against
Washington.
Washington: Justin Williams
When Justin Williams takes the ice on Sunday night, he will
do so for the 1,000th time in the regular season for his
career. Williams has been everything
anyone could have expected in his first season in Washington. He will have appeared in all 82 games for the
season, the fifth time he will have appeared in all 82 games. He ranks third on the club with 22 goals,
topping the 20-goal mark for the first time since the 2011-2012 season with Los
Angeles. He has 30 assists, fourth on
the team and the first time he reached that level since 2011-2012. His 52 points is fourth on the club and,
again, his best since 2011-2012. His
plus-15 is a career best, tying a mark he recorded in 2012-2013. He has not been especially hot lately (1-2-3
in his last ten games), but he has had success against the Ducks, going
11-14-25, plus-4, in 36 career games.
In the end…
At the moment, it appears that Philipp Grubauer will “probably”
get the call in goal for the Capitals on Sunday, meaning there would be no last
attempt to secure the all-time goalie wins record for Braden Holtby. That would make give the Caps few incentives in this contest, other than to
remind their former coach that they are still a formidable team. But this team has, for the most part this
season, done a good job of taking care of business. This is a chance to punch the time clock and
carry the lunch pail one last time before the fun starts in the postseason.
Capitals 3 – Ducks 2
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