Andre Burakovsky
“Good habits formed at youth make all the difference.”
-- Aristotle
When last we met Andre Burakovsky, he was having a devil (or
a Flyer, or a Penguin) of a time trying to get his offensive game untracked in
the postseason. In 12 postseason games
last spring, he had one point (a goal in a 4-3 Game 1 win over Pittsburgh in
the second round). Almost as much as the
lack of points was the lack of offensive aggression. He had 16 shots on goal in 12 games, which
seems a bit light for a scoring winger.
He did not record his first shot on goal of the playoffs until Game 4 of
the opening round against Philadelphia.
It was a disappointing end to what was a rather pleasant sophomore
year for Burakovsky. He appeared in 79
games and almost doubled his goal (17 to 9), assist (21 to 13), and points
production (38 to 22) over his rookie season.
He almost doubled his shots on goal (126 to 65 as a rookie) and lifted
his shots on goal per game by almost 30 percent (from 1.23 to 1.59). He even received as many Lady Byng Trophy
votes as teammate Nicklas Backstrom (okay, each got one fifth-place vote).
He even endured a two-game benching without undue harm to
his confidence, although it did take him a little while longer to get going as far as points
production was concerned. In his last 47
games of the regular season he went 15-15-30, a healthy 50-plus points rate
over a full season.
On the other hand, Burakovsky was not an especially
impressive possession player. He
finished smack in the middle – seventh – of 13 forwards with at least 250 minutes
of ice time in Corsi-for (51.5 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey). It was a substantial drop from his rookie
season (54.6). It might have contributed to a drop in goals-for/goals-against
per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 from 61.1 percent in 2014-2015 to 53.1 percent last
season.
Fearless’ Take…
Burakovsky is one of seven players in Caps history to record
at least 25 career goals and at least 30 career assists by the age of 20. The rest of the list isn’t bad. It is that last part – by the age of 20 – that might get lost in the
noise. Burakovsky is just the seventh
Capital in team history to play in at least 100 NHL games by the age of 20 and
just the second since 1987 (Tom Wilson is the other). It is also good to keep in mind that this is
just his fourth year playing hockey in North America, a year of Canadian juniors
(Erie Otters) being his first.
Burakovsky is not as much a work in progress as he is a canvass that has
just been put on the easel to be painted.
Cheerless’ Take…
Looking back on last season, maybe that playoff performance
shouldn’t have been a surprise. It’s not
like he went into the playoffs guns a’blazin’.
He had a goal and an assist over his last 11 regular season games. He did the same thing in 2015; he was 0-1-1
in his last 11 regular season games.
Then, he went without a point in his first six postseason games. And here is something odd about his
shots. Yeah, he had 126 shots in 79
games last season, but 10 of them came in one game (a 5-2 loss to the Florida Panthers on
February 2nd in which he recorded one of the two goals). That leaves 116 shots in 78 other games (in
20 of them, he did not have a shot on goal).
Still an improvement over the previous year, but it doesn’t sound quite
as impressive.
The Big Question… Is this the season Andre Burakovsky puts
it together over a full year?
We do not pose that question thinking he cannot do it; we
pose it wondering if, still short of his 22nd birthday, he has the experience and physical
maturity to do it. This is a big season
for the Caps, arguably their last best chance to win a Stanley Cup in the short
term. If this is the year that
Burakovsky can put together a solid 82-game campaign and not wilt down the
stretch and the postseason, it could be the best boost the club could get in
finally reaching that goal. If there is
something to provide some incentive in addition to the thrill of victory, it is
that Burakovsky is entering the last year of his entry-level contract (AAV or
$894,166 according to generalfanager.com). But here is something to think about. If Burakovsky was to sustain the production
he has had early in seasons over the full 82-game slate, a 25-35-60 season
would not be out of the question. That
would give him 51 career goals and 69 career assists. Let’s round that assist number up to 70. Since the 2004-2005 lockout, only 14 players
21 or younger had three seasons in the NHL and at least 50 goals and 70
assists. It is a list that includes the
likes of Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Nathan
MacKinnon, and Taylor Hall. It would be
a big leap for Burakovsky, but not bigger than the one he made from his rookie
to his sophomore year.
In the end…
Andre Burakovsky is still, at this writing, about 150 days
short of his 22nd birthday.
Like any youngster with potential, he has had flashes of showing just
what that potential is, and stretches in which he disappears. In his first two seasons, those disappearing
stretches have come late in seasons, including the playoffs. That is a habit that cannot be tolerated for
long if he and the Caps are going to make a deep postseason run. It might be asking a lot for him to grow up a
little faster, but the fact is that this season might present the best
opportunity the Caps will have to win a championship in the short-term. It is not all on Burakovsky’s shoulders, by
any means, but he has the skill to be an impact player for this club, and there
is no better time to establish the habit of being one than now.
Projection: 78 games, 20-26-46, plus-8
Photo: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America
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