The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
After a brief trip out of town and out of the Metropolitan
Division, the Washington Capitals return home to face a familiar foe on
Saturday night. The New York Rangers
make their first trip to Washington having stumbled to a 2-2-0 record in their
first four games of the season. But if
you think that start has any hidden meaning Caps fans, just remember that after
starting the 2014-2015 season 1-3-0, the Blueshirts went on to post a 53-22-7
record and win the Presidents Trophy.
As for this club, so far it has been a case of if they
score, they win; if they don’t, they don’t.
New York scored a total of 12 goals in their two wins (5-3 over the New
York Islanders in the season opener and 7-4 over the San Jose Sharks last
Monday), while they managed just a total of three goals in losses to the St.
Louis Blues (3-2) and the Red Wings (2-1).
As it is, the Rangers are tied for fourth in the league in
team scoring (3.75 goals per game), and ten players share the 15 goals
scored. That group is led by Chris Kreider
who, after some suspense, avoided salary arbitration and signed a four-year
deal over the summer to extend his stay in Manhattan through the 2019-2020
season. Kreider has confirmed the faith
of Ranger management, at least in the early going. He had a goal and an assist in each of the
Rangers’ first three games and recorded an assist in his last game, the 2-1
loss to the Red Wings on Thursday. This
should make Ranger fans happy, since in each of the past two seasons Kreider
recorded a single goal in his first six contests (in 2014-2015). failed to record a goal in his first Kreider
has established himself as a solid complementary scorer, having pushed past the
40-point threshold in each of the last two seasons. In 12 career games against the Caps, he is
3-1-4, plus-1.
Mika Zibenijad is second on the club in points (2-3-5) and
has a good start toward extending a personal streak of what is now five
straight seasons of improvements in goal scoring and points. Last season, with the Ottawa Senators,
Zibanejad set personal highs in goals (21), assists (30), and points (51). In four games with the Rangers so far this
season he has been held without a point just once. That, oddly enough, came in the Rangers’ 7-4
win over San Jose on Monday. He was one
of only seven skaters not to record a point.
In 13 career games against the Caps, Zibanejad is 4-2-6, minus-2.
The Rangers have one rookie among their goal-scorers. Jimmy Vesey was a highly sought after free
agent last summer coming off his winning the 2016 Hobey Baker Award as the top
player in collegiate hockey. He became a
free agent when the Buffalo Sabres, who obtained the rights to Vesey from the
Nashville Predators (who drafted him in 2012), could not sign him to a
deal. He recorded his first NHL goal in
the 7-4 win over San Jose, it coming in a tap-in of a Derek Stepan feed that
would be the game-winning goal. This
will be Vesey’s first appearance against the Caps.
1. The Rangers have a
whopping plus-10.2 shots for/shots against differential, best in the league
(but only 0.2 shots per game better than the Caps).
2. New York is tied
for third in most third period goals allowed (7), but they have done it in
fewer games (4) than any of the two teams ahead of them (San Jose and Chicago with
five games apiece) or one of the teams with which they are tied (Chicago with 5
games).
3. The Rangers and
the Chicago Blackhawks are the only teams in the league to have lost two
one-goal games without winning one.
4. New York is third
in the league in offensive zone faceoff efficiency (61.3 percent) trailing only
Minnesota (62.6) and Carolina (64.3).
5. What happened to
Rick Nash? Through four games he ranks
eighth among forwards in power play ice time per game (2:04). Jimmy Vesey (2:15), Pavel Buchnevich (3:20),
and Brandon Pirri (3:20) have more.
1. The Rangers are a
team against which the Caps have struggled in the Rock the Red era. Since the 2005-2006 season, the Caps are just
21-20-3. And lest you think the toughest
part of that stretch were in those first years after the 2004-2005 lockout, when
the Caps were still rebuilding, Washington is just 9-13-1 in the last 23
meetings dating back to December 2010.
2. Washington has
allowed the fewest goals in the league (5) and fewest per game (1.25). They have allowed the third-fewest number of
shots per game (24.5).
3. Only Vancouver
(13) and Columbus (11) have taken fewer penalties than the Caps (14). No team has taken fewer minor penalties (11),
tied with the Canucks and Blue Jackets.
4. Washington has
allowed only two goals at 5-on-5 so far this season, three when
shorthanded. Colorado and Chicago are
the only other teams to have allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 than when at 4-on-5
(Chicago has allowed ten goals at 4-on-5 so far).
5. The Caps remain
the only team in the league yet to allow a goal after the second intermission
of games this season.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New York: Henrik Lundqvist
Sure, it’s early, but seeing a line of 1-2-0, 2.71, .875
attached to the name of Henrik Lundqvist is unexpected, but certainly not
unusual. Last season, Lundqvist won his first
three decisions (3-0-0, 2.01, .903). But
in each of his previous five seasons, Lundqvist lost two or more of his first
three decisions of the season. Fast
starts do not appear to be his thing. Then
again, he is the fourth-oldest goalie in the league (34). A problem so far is, as you might expect,
stopping pucks at even strength. Among 44
goalies facing at least 25 shots at evens so far, he ranks 31st in
save percentage (.887). Lundqvist is
19-9-4, 2.65, .906, with four shutouts in 32 career games against the Caps.
Washington: Lars Eller
In four games, Lars Eller has yet to record his first point
as a Capital, has a 42.6 percent faceoff winning percentage, has barely more
shots on goal (6) than penalty minutes (4), and has the worst Corsi-for at
5-on-5 on the team (48.28 percent, numbers from Corsica.hockey). Yet one is hesitant to put the label “poor”
on his play. He has not been on ice for
a goal against at even strength, or any strength. And that faceoff winning percentage is
depressed by a woeful (or victim of a small population of draws) offensive zone
performance (30.0 percent). Eller has
not been an especially fast starter in recent years (two points in his first
six games last season, none in his first five in 2014-2015), so one might hold
the thought that he’s just working things out with his new club. Eller is 3-4-7, plus-2 in 19 career games
against the Rangers.
In the end…
Take a look at the Rangers, Caps fans. That is a team whose window is closing
rapidly, perhaps open only a crack. Rick
Nash is not nearly the goal scorer he once was, three rookies have dressed
already for the club (Jimmy Vesey, Pavel Buchnevich, and Brady Skjei), they
have new players sprinkled throughout their lineup (Mika Zibenajad, Michael
Grabner, Josh Jooris), and Henrik Lundqvist is not going to last forever as a
number one goalie. That is a team in its
third year removed from a Stanley Cup final and not on a short list of
contenders to return there. More than
anything else in this game, the Rangers are an example of the stakes of this
season for the Caps. Teams do not get
many chances to grab the brass ring – or hoist the Cup. If not this year, the team the Caps are
facing tonight might be what they look like a year or two down the road.
Capitals 4 – Rangers 1
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