“The battlefield is a scene of constant chaos. The winner
will be the one who controls that chaos, both his own and the enemies.”
-- Napoleon Bonaparte
When last we saw Matt Niskanen on the ice in a game that
mattered, he was in the low slot trying to defend a shot by Pittsburgh Penguin
Carl Hagelin that somehow snuck between his legs, and as he turned to his next
defensive assignment to clear away any rebound, he saw Nick Bonino tuck that
rebound past the right pad of Washington Capitals goalie Braden Holtby for the
game-winning, series-clinching goal in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Caps went home for the summer; the
Penguins went on to win the Stanley Cup.
That is the chaos in which Matt Niskanen and most players in
the NHL live. Niskanen and the Caps have
found the task of navigating the chaos one that can be mastered in the regular
season over the past two years. The Caps
and Niskanen have expressed a certain consistency. In each of the last two seasons, the Caps
topped the 100-point mark in the standings.
In both seasons, Nickanen appeared in all 82 games, and he posted
remarkably similar top-end numbers. In
2014-2015 he was 4-27-31, plus-7; while in 2015-2016 he was 5-27-32,
plus-10. As we pointed out in looking at
his ten-game splits at the end of last season,
those ten-game splits were remarkable for their consistency in points produced
(no fewer than three, no more than five in any ten-game segment). In the land of chaos, Niskanen was an island
of constancy.
The playoffs have been another matter. In each of the last two seasons the Caps and
Niskanen reached the second round, but advanced no farther. Niskanen has yet to record his first
postseason goal as a Capital, having gone 26 games over the last two
postseasons without finding the back of the net. Niskanen has not been an especially efficient
shooter for the Caps, his 3.4 percent shooting percentage the lowest among the
three teams for which he played in the NHL. But even with that shooting
percentage in the postseason, he would have had a playoff goal or two.
That is the thin margin on which success and disappointment
live, because as in many instances of supplemental scorers, even on defense, Niskanen’s
contributions mattered. The Caps were
5-0-0 in the regular season last year when he scored a goal, 23-1-4 in games in
which he recorded a point. He was also a
capable possession player, posting a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 of 51.12 percent,
following on a 51.95 percent year in 2014-2015 with the Caps.
Fearless’ Take…
Niskanen has not only been durable for the Caps, appearing
in all 164 regular season and 26 postseason games since joining the club, but
he has been a minutes-eater, too. He
averaged 24:40 in ice time last season, the third highest total among
Washington defensemen in the post-2004-2005 lockout era for the Caps. He led the Caps defensemen in both even
strength and shorthanded ice time per game and was second among that group in
power play ice time (to John Carlson).
He is the only Capital defenseman in the post-2004-2005 lockout era to
have appeared in at least 50 games in a season and averaged 19 or more even
strength minutes, more than two power play minutes, and more than two
shorthanded minutes per game.
Cheerless’ Take…
Maybe Niskanen going silent in the playoffs shouldn’t have
been a surprise. In his last 15 regular
season games last year he went 0-3-3. He
didn’t score a goal in his last 17 regular season games, meaning he went 29
games without a goal to end the season. Those
ten-game splits Peerless looked at also showed that while he was a plus-16 over
his first five ten-game segments, he was a minus-2 in each of his last three
segments. He had a similar drought to
end the 2014-2015 regular season – one goal in his last 22 games and none in 14
postseason games.
The Big Question… Is there a little more in Niskanen’s game,
especially in the postseason?
As noted, Niskanen had similar numbers in his first two
years with the Caps -- 4-27-31, plus-7 two years ago and 5-27-32, plus-10 last
season. They look a lot like his per-82
game average for his career (6-23-29, plus-7).
Before arriving in Washington he was 3-15-18 in 55 postseason games
(5-22-27) but is 0-7-7 in 26 postseason games with the Caps. It brings to mind a quote from Crash Davis in
the movie “Bull Durham”…
“There's 6 months in a season, that's about 25 weeks. That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium.”
Well, there are two months in a playoff season. For a Cup finalist that’s about nine weeks,
about 25 games. That means if you just
get one goal, maybe two – a knuckleball, a shot off a post, you get a shot from
the point with eyes…just one, maybe two…and you’re skating around the rink with
a Cup.
If Niskanen replicated his postseason shooting percentage
with the Dallas Stars and the Pittsburgh Penguins with the Caps, it would have
meant just one goal on 39 shots. But
that one goal, at the right time, might be the difference in a game or a
series. Remember, this is a team that
was eliminated in overtime in each of the past two seasons. That’s how thin that margin can be between
success and disappointment.
In the end…
Matt Niskanen hasn’t had that seeing-eye puck in the postseason. He’s hardly alone, and the Caps haven’t
advanced past the second round in the last 11 trips to the postseason. Niskanen is hardly a cause. He is a symptom. He and the team just haven’t found that lucky
bounce or fluke goal that propels them onward.
He has never been a big goal scorer, even by defenseman standards. Only once has he reached double digits in
goals in a season (2013-2014 in Pittsburgh).
But if he can find the net once or twice at the right time, the Caps
could find themselves making lives disappointing for others. Maybe it’s just a case of finding a way to control the
chaos.
Projection: 82 games, 6-26-32, plus-10
Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America
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