The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
With the NHL All-Star Game in their rear-view mirror, the
Washington Capitals begin the “second half” of the NHL regular season on
Tuesday night when they head to Brooklyn to take on the New York Islanders in
the last of a six-game home stand for the New Yorkers. The Caps will be looking to resume their blistering
run that carried them to a 20-3-3 record over their last 26 games going into
the break. Meanwhile, the new-look
Islanders and their new interim coach, Doug Weight, will bring a 5-0-1 record
in their last six games into this contest.
Weight took over the bench duties when Jack Capuano was
relieved of his head coaching responsibilities following the Islanders’ 4-0 win
over the Boston Bruins on January 16th. Capuano spent seven seasons behind the
Islander bench, compiling a record of 227-192-64 (the win total second only to
Al Arbour in club history) and taking the Islanders to the post season three
times. Twice he led the team to
100-point seasons. Weight was named to
an assistant coach position by the club in 2011-2012 after a 19-year NHL career
with six clubs in which he played more than 1,200 games and recorded 1,033
points, winning the Stanley Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006.
In the five-game Weight Era to date, the Islanders are
4-0-1, outscored their opponents by a 16-8 margin, converted four of 19 power
play chances (21.1 percent), and killed off nine of 11 shorthanded situations
(81.8 percent).
John Tavares has been on a very productive run of late,
straddling the change in coaches. Since
December 23rd, he is 10-7-17, plus-6, in 15 games. He is their leading goal scorer and point
getter under Weight so far (3-5-8 in five games). It is something of a turnaround that had him
with a rather sluggish (for him) 9-14-23, minus-1, in his first 32 games. His next goal will be his 20th of
the season, giving him eight in his first eight-NHL seasons. It would also break a tie with Bob Nystrom
for the sixth-most 20-goal seasons in Islander history and lift him into a tie
for fifth place with Clark Gillies.
Bryan Trottier has the most 20-goal seasons in club history (13). Tavares is 12-13-25, plus-5, in 29 career
games against the Capitals.
Nick Leddy brings a four-game points streak into this
contest (1-5-6, plus-3) and leads the Islander defensemen in goals (8), assists
(19), and points (27) this season. He is
also the leader in ice time per game among defensemen (23:00), as well as power
play goals (2) and points (10). Leddy
has been something of a bellwether for the club, and not in a good way. He has goals in eight games this season, and
in those games the Isles have a record of 1-4-3. Leddy is 1-5-6, even, in 16 career games
against the Caps. That goal came in his
first game against Washington, in 2011 when playing with the Chicago
Blackhawks. The Hawks lost in overtime.
Ex-Capital Jason Chimera might not have been the happiest
Islander to see the All-Star break come. In eight games leading up to the
break, Chimera scored five goals, four of them in Islander wins. The outburst doubled Chimera’s goal total for
the season to ten and might have been an indicator that the odd sawtooth
year-to-year progress in goal scoring (up on year, down the next, up the next,
and so on) over the last seven seasons is going to be interrupted after he
recorded 20 goals for the Caps last season.
The odd part of his recent production is that he is doing it without
getting a lot in the way of ice time.
Chimera averaged just 11:39 in ice time over his last nine games and was
under ten minutes twice. He is 2-2-4,
plus-4, in nine career games against the Caps.
1. No team in the
Eastern Conference has played in more home games to date than the Islanders
(28). Only Chicago has had more games on
home ice so far (29).
2. The Islanders are
the second-worst team in the league at home on the power play, converting just
12.7 percent of their opportunities. Add
to that the fact that the Isles are 24th in the league in penalty
killing at home (78.5 percent), and that home special teams index of 91.2
percent looks rather weak. And how bad
is the power play overall? The Isles
have more 5-on-3 power play time than any team in the league (10:37), and they
have just one goal to show for it.
3. New York is the
worst team in the league in one-goal games, carrying a winning percentage of
just .286 into this contest (6-6-9). One
of those six one-goal wins is against the Caps (4-3 on December 27th).
4. No team in the East
has allowed more third period goals than the Islanders (55, tied with
Philadelphia). Only Dallas and Vancouver
have allowed more (57).
5. As if to complete
the misery, the Islanders rank 29th in the league in Corsi-for at
5-on-5 (46.61 percent). Their CF% is
only slightly better adjusted for score, zone, and venue (47.16 percent, ranked
27th; numbers from Corsica.hockey).
1. With three winning
streaks of five or more games this season (five, six, and nine), the Caps are a
good portion of the way to matching last season, when they had five such
streaks (five, six, ten, five, and five).
In their other Presidents Trophy-winning season (2009-2010), they had
four such streaks (six, six, 14, and five).
2. Only Minnesota –
yes, Minnesota – has more ten-goal scorers (8) than the Caps (7, tied with
several teams).
3. Only two teams in
the league have spent more time killing penalties than the Caps (299:52),
Calgary (330:15) and Anaheim (308:18).
No team has a larger time deficit on special teams (power play time less
penalty killing time) than the Caps (minus-54:55).
4. No team has more
wins this season by three or more games than the Caps (15, tied with Montreal).
5. The Caps have the
second-worst penalty differential in the league in road games. Their minus-20 differential is only better
than the Boston Bruins (minus-25).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New York: Thomas Greiss
It has taken a while, but Thomas Greiss would appear to
finally be a number one goalie in the NHL.
Until this season, Greiss had never appeared in more than half of his
team’s games, and he accomplished that feat just once in seven seasons, that
being last year in his first year with the Islanders (23-11-4 in 41
games). With Jaroslav Halak in
Bridgeport in the AHL, and the club taking a slow approach in the development
of Jean-Francois Berube, Greiss is the man of the moment, having appeared in 11
of the Islanders last 12 games, over which he has a record of 6-2-3, 1.99,
.936, with two shutouts. He is 1-1-1,
2.65, .924 in three career appearances against Washington.
Washington: Taylor Chorney
Quick…how many games this season have the Caps lost in
regulation time this season with Taylor Chorney in the lineup? The answer is “one.” The Caps are 11-1-2 in the 14 games in which
Chorney dressed this season, the regulation loss coming to Ottawa last
Tuesday. Over two seasons, the Caps are
51-11-7 in games in which Chorney appeared.
This might be the poster child of “correlation is not causation” as it
applies to hockey, but Chorney is not, at least on a performance basis, the
liability his personal stats would indicate on a production basis. For example, among Capitals defensive pairs
with at least 50 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time, the two pairing including Chorney
(with Brooks Orpik and with Nate Schmidt) are the worst on the team (numbers
from Corsica.hockey). Only 18 of 231
defensemen appearing in ten or more games have fewer than the three points
Chorney has. But hey…winning. In four career games against the Islanders,
he is 0-0-0, minus-2.
In the end…
If you are thinking that the Caps are especially susceptible
to an All-Star break induced let down, then you really are a Caps fan. Here’s a tip from your Uncle Peerless…30
teams are coming out of the All-Star break, and there is little to hint that
any team more or less than any other will behave differently than they did
going into the break. The thing here is,
both teams were doing well going into the All-Star Game break, but the Caps haven’t
lost in regulation to an NHL team in an American city in their last 16 games,
their only regulation loss in that 13-1-2 stretch coming against the Ottawa
Senators. Then again, the last team in
an American city they did lose to was the Islanders in Brooklyn on December 27th. Guess it’s time to address that matter.
Capitals 4 – Islanders 2
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